Using Opening and closing lines to handicap.

wilheim · Apr 10, 2004

Using a percieved sharp book - will tracking how often line movement gets the money be worth the effort. Eg. the Yankees opened at -170 and closed at -145 at Pinnacle today, the dog White Sox won easily 7-3. An example of a game yet to be played is St Louis at Arizona Morris/Sparks - the game opened at -127 is now at -143 (Cards). The down side is players would have to play games at bad numbers when betting with the move, but on the other hand betting against the move would offer some nice value/scalp opportunities.

wil.

TheGeneral+ · Apr 10, 2004

I still wish we could get someone who follows steam to post some plays for awile so we could put some reality behind it. The moves have been hammered by the insiders well before we, as typical gamblers, get them.

postaldoug · Apr 10, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Using a percieved sharp book - will tracking how often line movement gets the money be worth the effort. Eg. the Yankees opened at -170 and closed at -145 at Pinnacle today, the dog White Sox won easily 7-3. An example of a game yet to be played is St Louis at Arizona Morris/Sparks - the game opened at -127 is now at -143 (Cards). The down side is players would have to play games at bad numbers when betting with the move, but on the other hand betting against the move would offer some nice value/scalp opportunities.

wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You are onto a good angle, but can't give this info out. Some do it better than I, but few will give it away. Overnight lines are a part of it.

Doug

scott · Apr 10, 2004

Wilheim, IMO charting these moves would serve the linesmaker more than a handicapper/bettor.....ScottyS

wilheim · Apr 10, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>An example of a game yet to be played is St Louis at Arizona Morris/Sparks - the game opened at -127 is now at -143 (Cards). <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Cards 10-2 - Bottom of the 7th. (Game closed -149 at Pinnacle).

wil.

scott · Apr 11, 2004

I think the closing line from a big credit store has value. The moves are suspect. Mabey it opened too high or too low. The movement to get to the right number (the # that the true smarts quit betting) doesn't mean much IMO. The closer, from a credit store, is legit.....ScottyS

Fishhead · Apr 11, 2004

Betting against the very late closing line movements in the NFL will land you on easy street.

~Falco~ · Apr 11, 2004

If you are a book and you have people betting line moves you would be foolish not to shade lines and bait people in.(Bookmaker 101) Look at Pinnacle they lead the industry in baiting and shading. If you have the time look at their overnights they nickle and dime scalpers, middlers and those that think they are getting a good price come the morning most just bet the other side pay the juice and hit nothing but air. Business 101.