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Stephen Nover
Because they liked Georgia Tech and not Connecticut in Monday night’s NCAA men’s championship game, the thought of hedging never entered their minds.
But here were two professional gamblers holding a big-money 30-1 future book ticket on Georgia Tech knowing they could have wrapped up some kind of profit if they would have hedged, in other words put some money down on the Huskies, too.
Instead they did what 99 percent of the people in a similar position wouldn’t do. They bet Georgia Tech at +6.
“I thought getting Georgia Tech at plus six offered an advantage,” one of the gamblers said.
There was value taking 6 since the consensus number was Tech +5. But did loading up on the Yellow Jackets make sense when you already stood to win five-figures on a Tech futures wager? Never mind that Connecticut beat Georgia Tech, 82-73. The gamblers weren’t second-guessing themselves afterward.
Like true professionals, they didn’t kick or scream watching the game. They realized the Huskies played well and deserved to win. Their only hope was that by having a great number, +6, they were alive for a back-door push that never materialized.
“From purely a betting standpoint, if you are a professional gambler, you never want to make a wager that has a negative expectation,” said one of the bettors. “So you would only hedge if you honestly liked the other side. I liked Georgia Tech.
“If I would have hedged that meant I would have liked Connecticut. Why would I make a bad bet?”
His point being is why lay 11-to-10 juice on a team you don’t believe in.
“If you make 11-to-10 wagers when you have no opinion, you go broke eventually because you lose the vig (vigorish),” he said. “The only way we would have hedged is if we honestly liked Connecticut.
“If your only reason for betting is just to hedge, most times you will have made bad bets. The idea is if you want to win long term, you can’t afford to make many bad bets.”
This philosophy, though, depends on circumstances. Most recreational bettors would be wise to hedge if they find themselves in a once-in-a-lifetime spot to collect a big amount, with the alternative of getting nothing if their team doesn’t win.
Say you have the opportunity to be the weekly winner in a high-end football contest. You have a perfect card going into the Monday night game, and need the ‘dog to win straight-up. In that case it makes sense to also bet the favorite on the money line thus assuring a profit.
“If you have to pay rent tomorrow then you hedge regardless of the math of your gamble,” the professional gambler said. “Lifestyle decisions factor in then. But it does force you to literally sell your stock short just to lock up a profit.”
Most recreational gamblers need money. They can’t risk riding a long shot all the way through knowing they would get squat if the team lost in the championship game. Professional gamblers have a different standard. They would only hedge if they honestly liked the other side.
For most of us, it would just be nice to have this kind of decision to make.
Stephen Nover
Because they liked Georgia Tech and not Connecticut in Monday night’s NCAA men’s championship game, the thought of hedging never entered their minds.
But here were two professional gamblers holding a big-money 30-1 future book ticket on Georgia Tech knowing they could have wrapped up some kind of profit if they would have hedged, in other words put some money down on the Huskies, too.
Instead they did what 99 percent of the people in a similar position wouldn’t do. They bet Georgia Tech at +6.
“I thought getting Georgia Tech at plus six offered an advantage,” one of the gamblers said.
There was value taking 6 since the consensus number was Tech +5. But did loading up on the Yellow Jackets make sense when you already stood to win five-figures on a Tech futures wager? Never mind that Connecticut beat Georgia Tech, 82-73. The gamblers weren’t second-guessing themselves afterward.
Like true professionals, they didn’t kick or scream watching the game. They realized the Huskies played well and deserved to win. Their only hope was that by having a great number, +6, they were alive for a back-door push that never materialized.
“From purely a betting standpoint, if you are a professional gambler, you never want to make a wager that has a negative expectation,” said one of the bettors. “So you would only hedge if you honestly liked the other side. I liked Georgia Tech.
“If I would have hedged that meant I would have liked Connecticut. Why would I make a bad bet?”
His point being is why lay 11-to-10 juice on a team you don’t believe in.
“If you make 11-to-10 wagers when you have no opinion, you go broke eventually because you lose the vig (vigorish),” he said. “The only way we would have hedged is if we honestly liked Connecticut.
“If your only reason for betting is just to hedge, most times you will have made bad bets. The idea is if you want to win long term, you can’t afford to make many bad bets.”
This philosophy, though, depends on circumstances. Most recreational bettors would be wise to hedge if they find themselves in a once-in-a-lifetime spot to collect a big amount, with the alternative of getting nothing if their team doesn’t win.
Say you have the opportunity to be the weekly winner in a high-end football contest. You have a perfect card going into the Monday night game, and need the ‘dog to win straight-up. In that case it makes sense to also bet the favorite on the money line thus assuring a profit.
“If you have to pay rent tomorrow then you hedge regardless of the math of your gamble,” the professional gambler said. “Lifestyle decisions factor in then. But it does force you to literally sell your stock short just to lock up a profit.”
Most recreational gamblers need money. They can’t risk riding a long shot all the way through knowing they would get squat if the team lost in the championship game. Professional gamblers have a different standard. They would only hedge if they honestly liked the other side.
For most of us, it would just be nice to have this kind of decision to make.
