Overall Favorite/Underdog Results
Since 1987, there have been 51 total final four games played, and the ATS results have been about as predictable as the flip of a coin. While the favorites have won 32 of the 51 games straight up, the underdogs own a small 27-24 ATS edge. In the championship game though, the favorites hold a slight edge, having won nine of 17 ATS and 13 of those 17 straight up. Currently, the favorite in the final is on quite a stretch, with an 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS record in the last 14. Syracuse managed to slow that trend however, upending Kansas in the 2003 final, 81-78, as a 5-1/2 point underdog.
Line Placement
It’s clear that simply going with a favorite or underdog in a final four game will not lead you to any kind of consistent success. Analyzing the amount of points being given does reveal some secrets though. Take a look at some of these records based on the line placement:
- Favorites of 6-1/2 points or more are a mere 9-7 SU & 3-13 ATS
- Favorites of 4-6 points are 12-4 SU & ATS
- Favorites of less than 4 points are 11-9 SU & 9-11 ATS
The only three times since ’87 that a team favored by more than 6-1/2 points covered that game were in the 2000 semis when Michigan St beat Wisconsin, 53-41 as an 8 pt favorite, in the ’97 semis, when Kentucky, laying 6-1/2 points, knocked off Minnesota 78-69, and finally, in the 2002 championship game when Maryland, a 7-1/2 point favorite, beat Indiana 64-52. Furthermore, based solely on the final score margin, none of these games were clear cut covers. Which leads to the next question, what game provided the cushiest ATS win? That would be the ’03 semifinal when Kansas throttled Marquette 94-61 as a 4-1/2 point favorite. With a 28-1/2 point spread margin, not even a super duper quadruple teaser would have won that night with Marquette.
Seed Records
Does a team’s seed help determine anything about potential wagers? Unfortunately, no. Check out the records of the seeds in the final four games since ’87:
Seed # ATS Record (SU Mark)
#1’s: 23-21, 52% (26-18)
#2’s: 9-12, 43% (9-12)
#3’s: 10-6, 63% (8-8)
#4’s: 4-5, 44% (3-6)
#5’s: 2-3, 40% (2-3)
#6’s: 3-2, 60% (3-2)
#8’s: 0-2, 0% (0-2)
No seed lower than 8th has been to the final four in the past 16 seasons. Also, going a bit deeper reveals that any number one seed that is an underdog, a somewhat rare occurrence, has performed at a 7-3 ATS clip.
Conference Records
Do any particular conferences enjoy more success at the final four than others? You’ll see from the following that the Big East and Pac 10 seem to thrive at the final four, while the Big 12, SEC, and Big Ten struggle somewhat. Here are the respective conference records:
Conference ATS Record (SU Mark)
ACC: 12-13, 48% (13-12)
Atlantic 10: 1-0, 100% (0-1)
Big 12: 5-8, 38% (5-8)
Big East: 10-1, 91% (7-4)
Big Ten: 8-11, 42% (9-10)
Conf USA: 0-2, 0% (0-2)
Pac 10: 6-3, 66.7% (5-4)
SEC: 6-10, 37.5% (9-7)
WAC: 3-3, 50.0% (3-3)
Totals
In general, the OVER/UNDER Totals posted for the final four games are higher than most you would see in the regular season. The reason? My suspicion would be that oddsmakers trap exuberant bettors into thinking that since the best teams are playing, there should be more offensive fireworks. The avid fan should know by now though that defense wins championships (and semifinal games too)! To illustrate this point, of the 51 final four games analyzed, there were 29 UNDERS, 21 OVERS, and 1 PUSH. Coincidentally, all three games in the 2003 final four weekend went OVER the total. 35 of the games have had a total higher than 150 points. Of those, 21 were UNDERS. Not even UNLV’s high flying teams of the early ‘90’s were able to meet ridiculously inflated totals. In their championship run of 1990, the Runnin’ Rebels went UNDER in both games, each with a total in the 180’s! Some NBA teams can’t even score that much anymore.
Since 1987, there have been 51 total final four games played, and the ATS results have been about as predictable as the flip of a coin. While the favorites have won 32 of the 51 games straight up, the underdogs own a small 27-24 ATS edge. In the championship game though, the favorites hold a slight edge, having won nine of 17 ATS and 13 of those 17 straight up. Currently, the favorite in the final is on quite a stretch, with an 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS record in the last 14. Syracuse managed to slow that trend however, upending Kansas in the 2003 final, 81-78, as a 5-1/2 point underdog.
Line Placement
It’s clear that simply going with a favorite or underdog in a final four game will not lead you to any kind of consistent success. Analyzing the amount of points being given does reveal some secrets though. Take a look at some of these records based on the line placement:
- Favorites of 6-1/2 points or more are a mere 9-7 SU & 3-13 ATS
- Favorites of 4-6 points are 12-4 SU & ATS
- Favorites of less than 4 points are 11-9 SU & 9-11 ATS
The only three times since ’87 that a team favored by more than 6-1/2 points covered that game were in the 2000 semis when Michigan St beat Wisconsin, 53-41 as an 8 pt favorite, in the ’97 semis, when Kentucky, laying 6-1/2 points, knocked off Minnesota 78-69, and finally, in the 2002 championship game when Maryland, a 7-1/2 point favorite, beat Indiana 64-52. Furthermore, based solely on the final score margin, none of these games were clear cut covers. Which leads to the next question, what game provided the cushiest ATS win? That would be the ’03 semifinal when Kansas throttled Marquette 94-61 as a 4-1/2 point favorite. With a 28-1/2 point spread margin, not even a super duper quadruple teaser would have won that night with Marquette.
Seed Records
Does a team’s seed help determine anything about potential wagers? Unfortunately, no. Check out the records of the seeds in the final four games since ’87:
Seed # ATS Record (SU Mark)
#1’s: 23-21, 52% (26-18)
#2’s: 9-12, 43% (9-12)
#3’s: 10-6, 63% (8-8)
#4’s: 4-5, 44% (3-6)
#5’s: 2-3, 40% (2-3)
#6’s: 3-2, 60% (3-2)
#8’s: 0-2, 0% (0-2)
No seed lower than 8th has been to the final four in the past 16 seasons. Also, going a bit deeper reveals that any number one seed that is an underdog, a somewhat rare occurrence, has performed at a 7-3 ATS clip.
Conference Records
Do any particular conferences enjoy more success at the final four than others? You’ll see from the following that the Big East and Pac 10 seem to thrive at the final four, while the Big 12, SEC, and Big Ten struggle somewhat. Here are the respective conference records:
Conference ATS Record (SU Mark)
ACC: 12-13, 48% (13-12)
Atlantic 10: 1-0, 100% (0-1)
Big 12: 5-8, 38% (5-8)
Big East: 10-1, 91% (7-4)
Big Ten: 8-11, 42% (9-10)
Conf USA: 0-2, 0% (0-2)
Pac 10: 6-3, 66.7% (5-4)
SEC: 6-10, 37.5% (9-7)
WAC: 3-3, 50.0% (3-3)
Totals
In general, the OVER/UNDER Totals posted for the final four games are higher than most you would see in the regular season. The reason? My suspicion would be that oddsmakers trap exuberant bettors into thinking that since the best teams are playing, there should be more offensive fireworks. The avid fan should know by now though that defense wins championships (and semifinal games too)! To illustrate this point, of the 51 final four games analyzed, there were 29 UNDERS, 21 OVERS, and 1 PUSH. Coincidentally, all three games in the 2003 final four weekend went OVER the total. 35 of the games have had a total higher than 150 points. Of those, 21 were UNDERS. Not even UNLV’s high flying teams of the early ‘90’s were able to meet ridiculously inflated totals. In their championship run of 1990, the Runnin’ Rebels went UNDER in both games, each with a total in the 180’s! Some NBA teams can’t even score that much anymore.
