Betting against the Vig movements in Baseball...has anyone tried this?

SportSavant · Mar 29, 2004

What I mean is this...As an example I would print all the opening lines from Pinny for Example....Then throughout the day, if I ever noticed a movement that was say more than 25 cents worth of VIG I would bet against the vig movement, maximizing earnings...

Example YANKEES open -120 Boston + 110 Yankees get bet hard so right before game time they are down to -150 & Boston is +140. You have an extra 30 cents of Vig going for you (& of course the movement was not due to injuries).

Is it wise to Bet Boston +140 blindly...over a full year, taking every team where the vig moved at least 25 points in your favor wether it be dog or favorite....

SrMuny · Mar 29, 2004

Best BET is takin both sides locking in 20 cents on that example.

FREE $, unless of couse you bet the DOG at PANAM................

SportSavant · Mar 29, 2004

I hear you Sr, however to bet both sides you would have had to correctly forecast which way the vig would move...that is hard to do sometimes, easier other times.....

SubZaero · Mar 29, 2004

I believe SS is not talking about scalping. I think he is asking the % of games that at the end, go against a big move overall. Hard to say but my guess is no more than 30%, so it is not worth it imo.

SrMuny · Mar 29, 2004

So TRUE.................I would say this then, If its PUBLIC money driving the YANKEES to -150 through put the day, then YES take the DOG and in the END you'll come out ahead.

If its the SYNDICATE moving it, and lighting up DB, may be best to pass, unless of course you can get the Yankees at -120.......

TheGeneral+ · Mar 29, 2004

Use The top tier books and copy game lines an hour before start, then 5 mins to start note the moves and keep track. See what you get.

JudgeWapner · Mar 29, 2004

When nthe # has move a great deal,think you are much better buying back than following the move.

SportSavant · Mar 29, 2004

1) How do you know wether it is sharp money or wether it is syndicate Money?

2) General are you saying bet against the late move?

WEEKENDALKI · Mar 29, 2004

I know a bookie who had made millions going in with teams that are opposite the move as long as the move wasnt' injury related. Savant, you may be on to something.

SubZaero · Mar 29, 2004

If it's the public betting, the move will be slow, first one book moves it 5 cents, 10 cents, or even 15 cents taking action on every number, if it is a syndicate the line will jump 15, 20 cents immediately.

JimFiestSux · Mar 29, 2004

I have a local guy that I call and if he has a lopsided game I go the other way it pays off more than you think!

avssports · Mar 29, 2004

ss, the answer is yes..but the key is to bet it on a CONSISTENCE basis..for one thing, you're getting that team at the price(and a much better price than the books wanted to give you)..also, it's alot easier said than done..when you're capping a game, and most angles point to team a, the public sees what you see, and of course that's where the action's gonna be..i think it's very tough to bet against that team...example: osu/st joes..how much value was there at 3 points?..this is one of the reasons why i think only a few bettors win in the long run..

barman · Mar 29, 2004

With full respect directed to those who Replied above me, please don't answer the question unless you have some data to support one way or the other.

GENERAL is correct. The only way to answer the question if no one has already tracked it for a large sample, is for someone to begin doing it now and we will then be able to make a more accurate determination.

It's a good bit of work. I've tried it in NBA and NHL, and my current schedule has resulted in not being able to create a consistent sample.

It might be a really cool idea if I created a Topic in the Handicapping Forum where each nite I post the Opening overnites. As long as we had a daily posting of those, most anyone could then create the Sample.

SportSavant · Mar 29, 2004

barman...if you want we can start a daily thread in the MLB section posting all the opening lines from Pinny...I will try to start it, but If I miss it you start it...

We will look for 25 cent vig movements....

If we see one (at anytime during the day) we post the Play...

Lets see how it does...feel like tracking this for this years baseball?

DarrylParsons · Mar 29, 2004

It seems like a reasonable play. I am a dog bettor and I usually decide in advance the minimum price I want. Often the best line is right before game time so I probably played very similarly to your strategy. I can tell you that 2001 and 2002 were good years for me in MLB but last year was not. Last year the very simple and basic streak plays were working. ie. if you just bet the hot team you'd have done very well. Those are my observations anyway.

SportSavant · Mar 29, 2004

thank you darryl...do u find the dogs to be a more favorable bet at the beginning of the year?

DarrylParsons · Mar 30, 2004

SS,

I haven't noticed any big difference between the beginning of the year and other times, but last year I think the first couple of weeks were good and then it started going downhill.

barman · Mar 30, 2004

savant, create a single Topic for Opening Lines and between us, we'll see if we can keep up.

I'm currently at V-wager and Olympic.

DarrylParsons · Mar 30, 2004

SS and barman,

Doesn't the live lines page have opening lines and closing lines once the game starts? All you have to do is glance at that page while the games are running and you can see instantly which ones satisfy the criteria. Or am I missing something or misunderstanding something?

~Falco~ · Mar 30, 2004

Looking for that perpeptual Golden Goose of a system that will reap Gold I see. So instead of Capping the games,(Wow what a concept) you've decided to Capp money movements. Movements that are caused by the uninformed public (majority of the time)and the elusive wise guy money moves.(Good luck differentiating between the two). Capping money movements in general is a waste of time. Your search for the Golden Goose has blinded you to the obvious, Capp the game. Good Luck.

Computer programers have that saying about computers crap in, crap out. Same here focus on irreliable money moves and you will get irreliable results. Simple.

Betting against the Vig movements in Baseball...has anyone tried this?

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