I have known Andy for over 20 years. While we don't always see eye to eye, I think this column offers great advice to those of you interested in winning your bracket...
http://www.freep.com/news/casinos/casino16_20040316.htm
ANDREW N.S. GLAZER: How to be boss of the bracket
Trust the selection committee; avoid picking lots of upset specials
March 16, 2004
BY ANDREW N.S. GLAZER
Each Friday, Andrew N.S. Glazer writes a column in the Free Press' Weekend section about casino gambling. Today, he turns his attention to NCAA basketball pools.
With the NCAA men's basketball tournament -- America's second-most heavily bet sporting event after the Super Bowl -- about to begin, here's how to use correct gambling theory to win bragging rights in your office pool.
I'll leave the keen analysis of why this year's field is balanced or why Pittsburgh got a raw deal in the seeding to the sports writers.
Although basketball knowledge can help with your NCAA pool, the reality is that it often hurts more than it helps.
Aside from overrating St. Joseph's (a team probably worse than Georgia Tech), the tournament selection committee has done almost all the research you need. Sure, occasionally a two seed is better than a one seed, and occasionally a six seed is better than a four, but for the most part, you should approach your pool as if the seedings are accurate, and instead focus on the number of your opponents; more specifically, how many of them there are likely to be.
If you're in a small pool, you stay with the "chalk" (the favorites) the whole way through. Don't pick a single upset, ever.
Yes, there are going to be upsets. The problem is, no one knows when they are going to happen. That includes the sports writers who do this sort of thing for a living. If they really knew when the upsets were going to happen, they wouldn't be sports writers.
Actually, so-called basketball junkies are among the easiest people to beat in most pools. They know the tournament always features many upsets, and so they pick lots of them. The problem is that no matter how much this junkie thinks he knows, your local expert never can predict which games are going to lead to upsets. You'll hear about the stunning upsets he picked, but you won't hear about the numerous games he got wrong.
In small pools, picking lots of upsets will doom your entry.
As the number of opponents you face in your pool grows, the number of upsets you pick must rise proportionately. Here's a guideline:
With 15 or fewer opponents -- a number that describes most office pools -- pick zero upsets. Your entire Final Four should be made up of No. 1 seeds. You won't make the spectacularly lucky guess that you can brag about at work the next day, but while your boring picks are racking up victories, your know-it-all opponents will be stumbling on easy games in their efforts to divine the unlikely.
Remember, if 15th-seeded Valparaiso wins the tournament, no one will get those points, and so the pool winner will be the person who performs best in the earlier games.
With 16-40 opponents, you should pick a few upsets. With 41-100 opponents, pick a few more. The more opponents you face, the more risk you must take. Those risks can be defined as picking low seeds, or picking against teams you think others will pick. For example, in a small pool, you'd be insane to pick against Michigan State in the first round. But picking against the Spartans in Round 2 might be a good play as MSU fans in your pool will choose to be loyal to their team even if the matchup doesn't favor the Green and White.
Those mega-pools where you're battling thousands of opponents require you to take more risk. You're essentially forced to pick either a large number of small upsets, or to select one fairly unlikely team to win the whole thing.
Assuming that you score more points for picking later rounds correctly than you do for getting the early games right, if you do pick a lower seed to win the tournament (never go lower than a six seed), you can stick mainly to chalk the rest of the way. For example, if you've selected Cincinnati to win the tournament, and the Bearcats do, you won't need the points you can earn by picking lots of other upsets,while picking lots more can ruin your chances in the unlikely event that Cincinnati does win.
On Friday, I'll discuss how best to approach special "round-by-round" selection pools in the Weekend section only in the Free Press.
ANDREW N.S. GLAZER teaches gambling seminars nationally and is the author of "Casino Gambling the Smart Way." E-mail him through www.casinoselfdefense.com or write to him at 1608 N. Vista St., Hollywood, CA 90046.
http://www.freep.com/news/casinos/casino16_20040316.htm
ANDREW N.S. GLAZER: How to be boss of the bracket
Trust the selection committee; avoid picking lots of upset specials
March 16, 2004
BY ANDREW N.S. GLAZER
Each Friday, Andrew N.S. Glazer writes a column in the Free Press' Weekend section about casino gambling. Today, he turns his attention to NCAA basketball pools.
With the NCAA men's basketball tournament -- America's second-most heavily bet sporting event after the Super Bowl -- about to begin, here's how to use correct gambling theory to win bragging rights in your office pool.
I'll leave the keen analysis of why this year's field is balanced or why Pittsburgh got a raw deal in the seeding to the sports writers.
Although basketball knowledge can help with your NCAA pool, the reality is that it often hurts more than it helps.
Aside from overrating St. Joseph's (a team probably worse than Georgia Tech), the tournament selection committee has done almost all the research you need. Sure, occasionally a two seed is better than a one seed, and occasionally a six seed is better than a four, but for the most part, you should approach your pool as if the seedings are accurate, and instead focus on the number of your opponents; more specifically, how many of them there are likely to be.
If you're in a small pool, you stay with the "chalk" (the favorites) the whole way through. Don't pick a single upset, ever.
Yes, there are going to be upsets. The problem is, no one knows when they are going to happen. That includes the sports writers who do this sort of thing for a living. If they really knew when the upsets were going to happen, they wouldn't be sports writers.
Actually, so-called basketball junkies are among the easiest people to beat in most pools. They know the tournament always features many upsets, and so they pick lots of them. The problem is that no matter how much this junkie thinks he knows, your local expert never can predict which games are going to lead to upsets. You'll hear about the stunning upsets he picked, but you won't hear about the numerous games he got wrong.
In small pools, picking lots of upsets will doom your entry.
As the number of opponents you face in your pool grows, the number of upsets you pick must rise proportionately. Here's a guideline:
With 15 or fewer opponents -- a number that describes most office pools -- pick zero upsets. Your entire Final Four should be made up of No. 1 seeds. You won't make the spectacularly lucky guess that you can brag about at work the next day, but while your boring picks are racking up victories, your know-it-all opponents will be stumbling on easy games in their efforts to divine the unlikely.
Remember, if 15th-seeded Valparaiso wins the tournament, no one will get those points, and so the pool winner will be the person who performs best in the earlier games.
With 16-40 opponents, you should pick a few upsets. With 41-100 opponents, pick a few more. The more opponents you face, the more risk you must take. Those risks can be defined as picking low seeds, or picking against teams you think others will pick. For example, in a small pool, you'd be insane to pick against Michigan State in the first round. But picking against the Spartans in Round 2 might be a good play as MSU fans in your pool will choose to be loyal to their team even if the matchup doesn't favor the Green and White.
Those mega-pools where you're battling thousands of opponents require you to take more risk. You're essentially forced to pick either a large number of small upsets, or to select one fairly unlikely team to win the whole thing.
Assuming that you score more points for picking later rounds correctly than you do for getting the early games right, if you do pick a lower seed to win the tournament (never go lower than a six seed), you can stick mainly to chalk the rest of the way. For example, if you've selected Cincinnati to win the tournament, and the Bearcats do, you won't need the points you can earn by picking lots of other upsets,while picking lots more can ruin your chances in the unlikely event that Cincinnati does win.
On Friday, I'll discuss how best to approach special "round-by-round" selection pools in the Weekend section only in the Free Press.
ANDREW N.S. GLAZER teaches gambling seminars nationally and is the author of "Casino Gambling the Smart Way." E-mail him through www.casinoselfdefense.com or write to him at 1608 N. Vista St., Hollywood, CA 90046.
