Thoughts on hoops point buying

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My initial thought has always been that it's generally a bad idea to pay 10 pts for a half point. But as I look at it fresh, I've noticed an interesting relationship between the spread, buying points and the ML. OK, let's take an example right now: ULLaff -7-110 and +280/-340 at BetJamaica. Now you can buy up to 3 full points for 10 cents each. Let's see, the point difference between the spread and the ML here is 6.5 points (-7 to -0.5) and the juice difference is 270 points. If it were allowed to buy as many points as you wished it would cost 130 juice points to buy to -0.5 i.e. it would be -240. Naturally that is signifcantly better than the -340 and also better than the +280 takeback. Buying down to -4-170 get you almost halfway to the ML in terms of spread and yet costs you only 25% more paying -170 instead of -110 as compared to the -340 ML.

For an even more extreme example, consider Gonzaga -10-110 vs. +425/-550 ML. 9.5 pts to -0.5 would cost 190 pts to -300. Way way better than either ML number. Of course anyone would do that. So shouldn't going to -7-170 also make sense?

What am I missing here? Either point buying is good, fav ML's are bad or dog ML's are good? Just ruminating here. Thoughts?
 

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Have you verified this at certain books, the spread usually gets larger as u buy more pts...
 

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I'm using BetJamaica as an example -- they allow you to up to 3 full points for 10 cents per half. Do any books allow more than that? I see Casablanca also allows up to 3; Carib allows only 1.5 pts.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
Either point buying is good, fav ML's are bad or dog ML's are good? Just ruminating here. Thoughts?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

my opinion is that fav ml's are bad.
 

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What you are missing is that the 10 cent buys are not linear.

-110 to -120 is much more costly than -260 to -270

If you can find me a book who will let me buy unlimited half points in 10 cent steps then I would crush them like an ant.
 

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Remember this is the tournament semi-finals and whatever team is losing late is bound to foul plenty. With that in mind I would be inclined to take the dog on the ML (plus 290 CRIS) and lay the 7.5 (consensus) if I like the favorite.

wil.
 

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Good point lurker. All else equal though, what's you thought on buying -7 to -4 or -10 to -7 for 60 points in college hoops? Waste of time?
 

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michael, yes but after 2.5 points Olympic starts charging 20 cetns per half. That's a bit steep.
 
i did not know what they charged,i just knew that you could buy up to 10 points,i never played that way
 

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D2,
IMO buying points is a waste of money. I researched buying the full ten points on nba dogs at -600. The year I checked they only hit at about 82% or so and break even was at around 85%. This is why spiro will let you do it, long term he still wins.
 

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So much for my theory of playing the dog on the ML or laying the points with the fav.

Final 1 2 T
Middle Tennessee 30 36 66
Louisiana-Lafayette 41 29 70


wil.
 

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Buying points has alot of value if you do the math. Especially aorund key numbers. Gambling is all math and finding value.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Remember this is the tournament semi-finals and whatever team is losing late is bound to foul plenty. With that in mind I would be inclined to take the dog on the ML (plus 290 CRIS) and lay the 7.5 (consensus) if I like the favorite.

wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Excepting the game lined pk em today, 6 of the 8 games finished so far today had the favorite winning but not covering, and most of them were lined 5 to 7. Margins of 1,1,2,3,4,4.
 

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D2 I know what you are saying, did you notice my post two up from yours. So much for the foul late theory.



wil.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Buying points has alot of value if you do the math. Especially aorund key numbers. Gambling is all math and finding value. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Unless you are railbird then math means nothing
icon_biggrin.gif


Not any key numbers in basketball worth buying for 10 cents.

NFL 3`s is a different story.
 

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Most books are now charging extra juice when you buy more than 2 points. My advice--don't buy points. Work hard, be selective, and get your bets in at good numbers.
 

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After reading your thread title,"Thoughts on hoop point(guard?)buying", I had to peek in, I thought maybe Richard Perry may have had a reply?
icon_biggrin.gif
 

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Does anyone remember when the Big Book use to let you buy up to 5 points all at only 10 cents each. Boy, those were the days to clean up house. You would find a ton of scalps every night. This went on for quite sometime until they caught on.
 

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