Odds on Political Party to Carry Florida in November at Pinnacle

ChuckSims · Mar 10, 2004

Pinnacle has the Republican party a -132 fav to win Florida in the November Election for President. The Dems are +122 to win Fla. Lets hear from the Floridians on who will win.

barman · Mar 10, 2004

The Democrats should take Florida in 2004.

The state is registered 45% Democrat, 38% Republican and 17% 'other'.

Another way to look at would be like this:

Virtually every vote that went to Gore in 2000 will go to the Dem (Kerry, for now) in 2004.

A fair share of the 3% Nader vote from 2000 should also go Democrat.

Over 10,000 registered voters in Florida who were blocked from voting in 2000 due to being mistakenly labeled as convicted felons by then FL Secretary of State Katherine Harris will get to vote this time. I bet not many will vote Repbulican.

And I believe a small percentage (2-5%?) of those who voted Bush in 2000 will switch due to feelings of betrayal related to foreign policy and/or the incredible reversal of the federal budget from surplus to mega-deficits under Bush.

King of the Road · Mar 10, 2004

That's good analysis Barman, but how did Jeb Bush get re-elected as Guv??

blueedwards · Mar 10, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by King of the Road:
That's good analysis Barman, but how did Jeb Bush get re-elected as Guv??<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

don't you know anything? he stole the election from jeb gore.

barman · Mar 10, 2004

The Democrats didn't put up much of a candidate for FL governor in 2002.

Floridians are not too flapped up by JEB Bush. He has less negative impact on the economy and nothing he does creates a need for body bags.

bulldog77 · Mar 10, 2004

Barman:
Good analysis, but don't underestimate the ability of the Fascist Party(I mean GOP) to come up with new ways to steal the election
this year. Like any other career criminals they always have something new to go with.

Guest · Mar 10, 2004

look at all the liberals

lander · Mar 10, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by King of the Road:
That's good analysis Barman, but how did Jeb Bush get re-elected as Guv??<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

There is ZERO correlation between many states tendencies to vote the same way in a Federal (Congress/President) election and a State election.

For instance, NY is very Democratic state, yet we've had a Republican governor for multiple terms now.