middling...

avssports · Mar 3, 2004

1)which option is better:
a)over 195 (-110)
under 197 (-110)
b)over 195 1/2 (-110)
under 197 1/2 (-110)
i'd think b is, only because you have 2 chances..is that a logical reasoning?..
2)how is 1/2 pt worth 6% juice?..did somebody just calculated it to be?..thanx in advance for the replies...

D2bets · Mar 3, 2004

I'll go with 1a as better because you lose less often, though I wouldn't bet that for a total.

2. Not sure what you mean. I'd say an NBA half point for a normal side is worth a little more than 6 cents so that 6 cents per side middling is good.

Owen · Mar 3, 2004

You have 2 chances in b to middle but you have 3 numbers in a 2 sides and 1 middle. I would lean slightly towards a but in general to me both bets are breakeven with maybe a very slight earn.

totalguy · Mar 3, 2004

a is always better. I offer the following example:

Given that each of the numbers 195,196 and 197 each have a 2% chance of hitting, the expectation for option A for a $100 bettor would be $-1.40. The expectation for option B for a $100 bettor would be $-1.60.

avssports · Mar 3, 2004

thanx fellas...
d2bets, how come you wouldn't take a?..

D2bets · Mar 3, 2004

I just don't think a 2 point difference is quite enough for an NBA totals middle. At full juice I'd want 2.5 or more.

PanchoSanza · Mar 3, 2004

They are exactly the same.

Option a gives you the potential for 1 middle plus 2 sides, the 2 sides sum up to 1 middle.

Option B gives you two middles.

D2bets · Mar 3, 2004

Pancho, they're not exactly the same. Close, but not the same. Let's say each has a 2% chance and you bet it 100 times 110/100.
At 195/197 you will
lose 94 times 10
win 100 4 times (sides)
win 200 2 times (middles)
-940
+400
+400
lose 140

At 195.5/197.5
lose 96 times 100
win 4 times 200
-960
+800
lose 160

The 195/197 is better because while 2 sides does = a middle, you will lose fewer times with 195/197 for a smaller overall loss.

DENIRO · Mar 3, 2004

which is more profitable sides or totals?

thanks for your input

D2bets · Mar 3, 2004

It all depends on what spreads/odds you get, but sides generally hit at or around the number much more often.

avssports · Mar 3, 2004

d2bets, thanx for the crash course...i'm gonna go back and reread stanford wong's book thoroughly to get a better grip of this....

lurkerforages · Mar 3, 2004

never mind

[This message was edited by lurkerforages on March 04, 2004 at 01:08 AM.]

Muddy · Mar 3, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by lurkerforages:
you read some funny stuff here on the forums.

As Pancho correctly said they are exactly the same.

D2bets, on (1) when you land on 195 or 197 you only get a "side" not a full middle.

In simple terms (1) = 0.5+0.5+1 = 2
(2) = 1+1= 2

Both these middles are quite poor unless you can get reduced juice on one side of the bet.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
You just dont get it

lurkerforages · Mar 3, 2004

Oh I get it.

The EV difference is -0.72% vs -0.63%

A difference of 0.09%

Big Phucking deal.

Its the same unless you want to split pubic hairs.

Muddy · Mar 3, 2004

You really didnt have to edit your post. Embarrased?

lurkerforages · Mar 3, 2004

Yes I am "Embarrased" I was 0.09% off.

UWinSports · Mar 3, 2004

I say if you bet either one you have to be really hard up for cash.

And if you have alot of cash and are betting big money then you are stupid. There are alot faster GUARANTEED ways to make money with big money.

lurkerforages · Mar 3, 2004

100% on the money, splitting hairs about a bet which is worth nothing is not my idea of being sharp.

pja101 · Mar 3, 2004

..looks like some people just have a hard time admitting that they were wrong.

lurkerforages · Mar 4, 2004

No problem here, I was wrong OK.
There is a 0.09% difference.

middling...

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