<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
It's not.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, not unless you bet it on a +3000 Boxing Draw at 5 Dimes
.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Maybe. Depends what the true value of that bet is and how good those odds are. You usually get raked over the coals on those things. I still doubt it reaches 10% cash value.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
It's not.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, not unless you bet it on a +3000 Boxing Draw at 5 Dimes
Maybe. Depends what the true value of that bet is and how good those odds are. You usually get raked over the coals on those things. I still doubt it reaches 10% cash value.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
It's not.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, not unless you bet it on a +3000 Boxing Draw at 5 Dimes
.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Maybe. Depends what the true value of that bet is and how good those odds are. You usually get raked over the coals on those things. I still doubt it reaches 10% cash value.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
It does if you bet the No Draw at -2800 at Pinnacle
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
It's not.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, not unless you bet it on a +3000 Boxing Draw at 5 Dimes
Maybe. Depends what the true value of that bet is and how good those odds are. You usually get raked over the coals on those things. I still doubt it reaches 10% cash value.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
It does if you bet the No Draw at -2800 at Pinnacle
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
It's not.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, not unless you bet it on a +3000 Boxing Draw at 5 Dimes
.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Maybe. Depends what the true value of that bet is and how good those odds are. You usually get raked over the coals on those things. I still doubt it reaches 10% cash value.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
It does if you bet the No Draw at -2800 at Pinnacle
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
YES. In that case, yes indeed. But then again, in that case it was good even without the freeplay. So calculate it's value from +2800. Again, you're right, even in that case the 12$ FP is worth almost 12% cash. But this a very very rare example. In most cases you can't get anywhere near that value.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
It's not.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, not unless you bet it on a +3000 Boxing Draw at 5 Dimes
Maybe. Depends what the true value of that bet is and how good those odds are. You usually get raked over the coals on those things. I still doubt it reaches 10% cash value.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
It does if you bet the No Draw at -2800 at Pinnacle
YES. In that case, yes indeed. But then again, in that case it was good even without the freeplay. So calculate it's value from +2800. Again, you're right, even in that case the 12$ FP is worth almost 12% cash. But this a very very rare example. In most cases you can't get anywhere near that value.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
It's not.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, not unless you bet it on a +3000 Boxing Draw at 5 Dimes
.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Maybe. Depends what the true value of that bet is and how good those odds are. You usually get raked over the coals on those things. I still doubt it reaches 10% cash value.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
It does if you bet the No Draw at -2800 at Pinnacle
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
YES. In that case, yes indeed. But then again, in that case it was good even without the freeplay. So calculate it's value from +2800.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
On that note, check out Chavez/Morales Draw right now at Pinn/5D.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Halifax:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
It's not.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, not unless you bet it on a +3000 Boxing Draw at 5 Dimes
Maybe. Depends what the true value of that bet is and how good those odds are. You usually get raked over the coals on those things. I still doubt it reaches 10% cash value.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
It does if you bet the No Draw at -2800 at Pinnacle
YES. In that case, yes indeed. But then again, in that case it was good even without the freeplay. So calculate it's value from +2800.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
On that note, check out Chavez/Morales Draw right now at Pinn/5D.
The cash equivalent of the Bonus Play can be figured out pretty easily. First figure out the decimal odds of your bet.
For a plus money bet, just add the number one to your odds.
Example: a +145 bet has decimal odds of 2.45
For a minus money bet, take the number one and divide it by the odds. Then add one.
For example: a -110 bet is 1/1.10 (=0.91) + 1. It has decimal odds of 1.91.
Once you know the decimal odds, take the win amount of the Bonus Play and divide it by that number.
For example, if my Bonus Play is $0 to win $200 at -110 odds, then the cash value is $200/1.91 = $105. If my Bonus Play is $0 to win $480 on a +240 underdog, then my Bonus Play value is $480/3.40 = $141.
The value of your Bonus Play is maximized by playing as large an underdog as possible. That is why if you are a parlay bettor, it's advisable to use the Bonus Play in a parlay. Getting back parlay odds like 2.6:1 on a two teamer or 6:1 on a three teamer maximizes the value of your Bonus Play.
For a plus money bet, just add the number one to your odds.
Example: a +145 bet has decimal odds of 2.45
For a minus money bet, take the number one and divide it by the odds. Then add one.
For example: a -110 bet is 1/1.10 (=0.91) + 1. It has decimal odds of 1.91.
Once you know the decimal odds, take the win amount of the Bonus Play and divide it by that number.
For example, if my Bonus Play is $0 to win $200 at -110 odds, then the cash value is $200/1.91 = $105. If my Bonus Play is $0 to win $480 on a +240 underdog, then my Bonus Play value is $480/3.40 = $141.
The value of your Bonus Play is maximized by playing as large an underdog as possible. That is why if you are a parlay bettor, it's advisable to use the Bonus Play in a parlay. Getting back parlay odds like 2.6:1 on a two teamer or 6:1 on a three teamer maximizes the value of your Bonus Play.
Recently, DSI emailed me with a special offer of 30% bonus. I have played there in the past and they had some hittable lines, so I sent over a dime. I figured it was cash but it turned out to be Bonus Play. I said ok, but when I tried to play a ML dog I couldnt. I layed it on a two team parlay, nailed the afternoon game and hedged the later game for an actual cash bonus of 34%. Worked out in my favor, but some books will not let you use Bonus Play money on ML dogs.
FWIW
FWIW
I may catch some flack for publicly posting this, but what the hey.
Basic strategy for Bonus Plays:
1. Play a three team parlay at 6-1 or higher. A dart thrower will covert this 1/8 of the time, and thus turn the listed Bonus Play into a 75% of Bonus Play realization in expecation ($100 Bonus Play is worth $75).
2. If allowed, play a 4 team parlay with 3 sides and a Moneyline you like. This raised the vale of $100 Bonus Play to more like $85.
3. Playing one huge ML works as well as long as you think it isn't that far from true odds. Parlaying it to another bet makes it worth that much more.
Playing only a straight bet or even just a two team parlay is a stone cold sucker play that leaves huge bonus expectation wasted.
Basic strategy for Bonus Plays:
1. Play a three team parlay at 6-1 or higher. A dart thrower will covert this 1/8 of the time, and thus turn the listed Bonus Play into a 75% of Bonus Play realization in expecation ($100 Bonus Play is worth $75).
2. If allowed, play a 4 team parlay with 3 sides and a Moneyline you like. This raised the vale of $100 Bonus Play to more like $85.
3. Playing one huge ML works as well as long as you think it isn't that far from true odds. Parlaying it to another bet makes it worth that much more.
Playing only a straight bet or even just a two team parlay is a stone cold sucker play that leaves huge bonus expectation wasted.
I have to take exception to calling a straight bet on a Bonus Play a "stone cold sucker" play. I almost never play parlays and I only play 1-2 plays per day, so I don't believe a 3 team parlay is the best use of my Bonus Plays.
I know that mathematically I could get $85 cash equivalent per $100 Bonus Play rather than $52 by playing a 3 teamer rather than a straight bet. But you also have to remember that Bonus Plays are rarely made (most bettors get a dozen at most in their lifetimes) so value expectation means less and the probability of winning a single specific play means more.
The question you have to ask yourself is what you would like to have the most: a $52 straight bet, a $71 two teamer or a $85 three teamer. Personally, I'd take the straight bet.
I know that mathematically I could get $85 cash equivalent per $100 Bonus Play rather than $52 by playing a 3 teamer rather than a straight bet. But you also have to remember that Bonus Plays are rarely made (most bettors get a dozen at most in their lifetimes) so value expectation means less and the probability of winning a single specific play means more.
The question you have to ask yourself is what you would like to have the most: a $52 straight bet, a $71 two teamer or a $85 three teamer. Personally, I'd take the straight bet.
I have to take exception to your taking exception. This isn't rocket science. I'm amazed by your post. Heavy sigh, and here we go:
I've said it on record before.....I can educate the average gambling novice on how to win sports betting. It's easy since they will listen to me.
However, those who have gambled for a longtime are often impossible to help.
If you want to convert your $100 match plays into $52 the rest of your life instead of into $75 plus, that is fine. But there is no way possible to justify such a bad decision.
How bad a play is a straight bet? You are mistakenly thinking that it is "free money" and you are profiting $52 from it.
That Bonus Bet is mathematically worth $75 or more FROM THE OUTSET. It is at least the equivalent of being given $75 in cash. So making a straight bet with a $100 bet is the equivalent of losing $23 (or more) as soon as you place the bet.
THe reason it goes further into the "stone cold sucker" category is that even a totally risk averse player could follow any strategy like that below (and in no way do I endorse or recommend the below play which reduces the value of the Bonus Play)
1. Bet a 3 team Bonus Play parlay for 100 with 3 games at different times. Bet on teams A,C,E
2. Bet team A as the first leg of the parlay. Then bet $66 back on team B playing A. If B covers you are up $60.
3. If team A wins, you are down 66. Team C is the next bet on the parlay so you bet 132/120 on Team D. If team D covers, you are up $54 net. If team C covers you are down 198.
4. With your parlay coming down to team E, hedge with a 330/300 bet on Team F. If they win, you are up $102. If they lose you are down 528 in total bets, but you get $600 ofthe parlay and profit $72.
OF course, you are going to shop and pick off good numbers, so you have a small chance to pick off a middle and make more than the 54,60 or 72 outcomes above. But even if you don't, this "dopey" betting strategy (that I would never recommend) still smashes the straight bet in terms of higher expectation WITH no risk.
I've said it on record before.....I can educate the average gambling novice on how to win sports betting. It's easy since they will listen to me.
However, those who have gambled for a longtime are often impossible to help.
If you want to convert your $100 match plays into $52 the rest of your life instead of into $75 plus, that is fine. But there is no way possible to justify such a bad decision.
How bad a play is a straight bet? You are mistakenly thinking that it is "free money" and you are profiting $52 from it.
That Bonus Bet is mathematically worth $75 or more FROM THE OUTSET. It is at least the equivalent of being given $75 in cash. So making a straight bet with a $100 bet is the equivalent of losing $23 (or more) as soon as you place the bet.
THe reason it goes further into the "stone cold sucker" category is that even a totally risk averse player could follow any strategy like that below (and in no way do I endorse or recommend the below play which reduces the value of the Bonus Play)
1. Bet a 3 team Bonus Play parlay for 100 with 3 games at different times. Bet on teams A,C,E
2. Bet team A as the first leg of the parlay. Then bet $66 back on team B playing A. If B covers you are up $60.
3. If team A wins, you are down 66. Team C is the next bet on the parlay so you bet 132/120 on Team D. If team D covers, you are up $54 net. If team C covers you are down 198.
4. With your parlay coming down to team E, hedge with a 330/300 bet on Team F. If they win, you are up $102. If they lose you are down 528 in total bets, but you get $600 ofthe parlay and profit $72.
OF course, you are going to shop and pick off good numbers, so you have a small chance to pick off a middle and make more than the 54,60 or 72 outcomes above. But even if you don't, this "dopey" betting strategy (that I would never recommend) still smashes the straight bet in terms of higher expectation WITH no risk.
Fezzik,
You are exactly right that educating people with experience is always more difficult because they think they know it all already. As I said above, I understand the value I'm losing by playing straight wagers. There is no dispute there. I am just saying that choosing to make plays that one feels more comfortable with rather than ones with more value expectation does not necessarily make those plays stone cold sucker plays.
Again, if we were talking about a situation that came up thousands of time in the average gambler's lifetime, I'd agree with you. That's why I always pass a game that has been available at least 1.5 points better at some point since it opened. Since I make well over 500 plays per year to me it is stupid to give away all that value on those plays. But we are talking about Bonus Plays that come along a handful of times in the lives of most gamblers. In a sample that small, often times value expectation will not match the actual results.
You are exactly right that educating people with experience is always more difficult because they think they know it all already. As I said above, I understand the value I'm losing by playing straight wagers. There is no dispute there. I am just saying that choosing to make plays that one feels more comfortable with rather than ones with more value expectation does not necessarily make those plays stone cold sucker plays.
Again, if we were talking about a situation that came up thousands of time in the average gambler's lifetime, I'd agree with you. That's why I always pass a game that has been available at least 1.5 points better at some point since it opened. Since I make well over 500 plays per year to me it is stupid to give away all that value on those plays. But we are talking about Bonus Plays that come along a handful of times in the lives of most gamblers. In a sample that small, often times value expectation will not match the actual results.
you are both obviously right...technically fezzic has mathematics on his side...
but logically with only a few attempts an unlucky streak could ruin any bonus altogether...
Perhaps if a book gave a 1 time Bonus Bet then Nick's theory would be the way to go..., however if the book offered a Bonus Bet a day then Fezziks argument makes more sense...
JMHO
but logically with only a few attempts an unlucky streak could ruin any bonus altogether...
Perhaps if a book gave a 1 time Bonus Bet then Nick's theory would be the way to go..., however if the book offered a Bonus Bet a day then Fezziks argument makes more sense...
JMHO
