Many baseball future book props available

After being traded from the New York Yankees to the Texas Rangers, Alfonzo Soriano has been bet down from 50/1 to 15/1 on the future book to hit the most home runs in the majors this season.

Get more baseball future book props by reading Arnie Lang's first contribution to the RX Web site by going to our home page at www.theprescription.com

Charlie

At 50-1, a semi-decent bet.

At 15-1, a horrible wager.

By the way, welcome to THERX officially Mr. Lang.

I have long enjoyed your unique sense of humor on the local LV radio stations.

Your a true credit to the sportsbetting world.

I am honored to have you as a co-worker.

Dittos, FISHHEAD!! Mr. Lang has been around for as long as I can remember, and he's one of the hardest-working and most honest guys around. Good to see him contributing here.

(HEY ARNIE: I REMEMBER SEEING UR BYLINE FOR YEARS IN VARIOUS L.V. PUBLICATIONS BUT ALWAYS AS "ARNE" ... WHEN DID U ADD THE 'I?')

Soriano isn't a bad play he should have Teixeira and Blalock around him, and nobody is going to pitch around anyone in Rangers lineup


Great ball park to hit in

Omar, that was my error. I have known Arne since 1981 and still can't spell his first name. Thanks for bringing that to our attention.

Arne doesn't have a password yet to the posting forum, but he will soon!

Charlie

Soriano is not going to lead the Majors in HR's. If anybody bets Soriano at 15-1 I would like to speak to them about buying my pet rocks.

Welcome to The Rx. Arne. I did enjoy the article, thanks. The Soriano prop is a perfect example of what I (and others) call missing the number. The 50-1 number quite possibly had substantial value with Soriano playing in Arlington, but very little with him leading off or batting 2nd for the Yankees in New York. Now of course at 15-1 he is a very definite no bet. The AL is full of sluggers including the addition of Vladimir Guerrero and Pudge Rodriquez. I don't expect Rodriguez to compete for the HR title, but Vlad may well be in the hunt, it remains to be seen how he will hits against AL pitching and at the ballpark in Anaheim, Edison International Field.


wil.

The cry is deafening lately from baseball fans (not to mention the media) that are complaining about the Yanks "ACQUIRING" ARod. I agree with Mr. Lang, however. The Rangers almost assuredly got the better of the deal. Like Mr. Lang points out, its truly amazing that no-one is even mentioning that the Yanks gave up Soriano to get ARod.

The biggest reason this deal will end up favoring the Rangers is Mr. Lang's dead-on statement "a player’s home run stroke is only one part of the home run equation. The ballpark factor is huge." It seems that everyone has annointed ARod as the "best player in baseball" (not my opinion, by the way). A quick look at some stats, however, will show that Soriano is not far behind, if not BETTER. Over the last two seasons Rodriguez has averaged 52 homers, 13 stolen bases, and hit .299 (by the way, isn't it interesting that the "best player in baseball" has averaged UNDER .300 for the last 2 years combined!). Soriano averaged 39 homers, 38 stolen bases and hit .295. Now, I'll give you that Rodriguez is a much better fielder, but he's switching positions!! And spring training is already starting! Not a lot of time to learn a whole new position. The biggest loss for the Yanks, however, is losing that pesky guy at the top of the lineup. How many championship teams don't have a pesky guy at the top of the lineup. Not convinced yet? Well then, here is the clincher - Rodriguez accumulated all his gaudy numbers in one of the best hitter parks in the majors, whereas Soriano accumulated his in one of the worst hitter parks in the majors - especially for right handers! Want proof? Ok - here you go. Soriano's average numbers the last 3 seasons (home: .268, 13 HR's ... away: .304, 18 HR's). Rodriguez's average numbers the last 3 seasons (home: .333, 29 HR's ... away: .278, 23 HR's). Look at these numbers! Notice if you just compare each players numbers acquired in games played outside of his own park, Soriano is the actually the BETTER hitter! And now they are SWITCHING PARKS - Soriano will be in one of the best hitter's parks and ARod will be in one of the WORST! What's more, this data includes stats from 2001, which was BEFORE SORIANO REALLY BLOSSOMED!! To top it all off the Yanks are paying Rodriguez about 3.5 times what they were paying Soriano and they are also THROWING IN A PROSPECT!!

Fans can complain about the Yanks buying up all the big name free agents, and they may have a good point in a lot of cases. But, mark my words, in this particular deal, the Yanks will be the ones crying in the end.

great post MD kid!!

also, no yankees right handed hitter has had 40 hr's since dimmagio. youre telling me A-Rod will?!? so anyways one time at band camp practice. . . .

Thanks Rob,

I forgot to mention that IMO the odds on Soriano at 15-1 still seems pretty attractive to me. The only thing keeping me from taking it now is tying up the money for that long. I wish I had thought of this prop right after the trade. 50-1 would have been outstanding and well worth the long wait.

Who is the best "non-roid" longball hitter? There in lies the value.

Soriano sealed his fate with a meltdown in last years playoffs. No way I can take 15-1 on a price that was at one time 50-1 regardless of what ballparks are involved. While Rodriguez hit .308, with 156 homers (sixth-best in franchise history) and 395 RBI, and was the MVP last season, plus three home run titles and was an All-Star all three seasons. The Rangers lost 89, then 90, then 91, going a combined 216-270 with AROD. They were last in the AL West each time, which was nothing new for them. Last year their attendance was the lowest since the early 90's. This is one of those trades that may work out well for both teams. The Rangers already have signed All Star third baseman Hank Blalock to a 5 year deal, with freed up cap money from the deal.


wil.

What specs did Giles & the Phils have the right field porch built for Thome?..Any Pac-Bell/Bonds specific dimensions like those by Magowan for his prize free agent buy prior to park building?

Thome appears to be on a winner(thus may only need spray the ball this summer?), and if Burrell & Abreu get back into form, it figures to lessen JT's need to carry a larger load for Phil's yard work.

I would look to the AL for a HR King, as they have fewer guys that can be pitched around, the AL has weaker pens on average(SD getting Hoffman back also?), a goosier strike-zone, and more softball teams(many 6 & 7 AB games for certain teams)...plus the NL has a better concentration of consistent 3 & 4 hole starters imho.

But agree with Wil & others, I wouldn't touch a free swinger like Soriano, without the lumber that once surrounded him, as the gains of being involved in softball affairs will be negated slightly, from being on a non-competitive squad, and he having only two years left on contract will be biding time 'til being moved again in a sign-and-trade to a contender, or licking his chops to go back East eventually.

Vlad, Glaus, & the Angels CF will have to see some pitches, if Eckstein and company get on.

Delgado is always a threat!

[This message was edited by Horseshoe on February 21, 2004 at 01:45 AM.]

Ballpark Effects

Ballpark effects matter - they greatly affect a player's statistics. Ballpark adjustments attempt to normalize a player's statistics in order to remove the effect of a player's ballpark. For instance, since 1982, players at Fenway Park have batted about 20 points higher than when they bat at other ballparks; because Red Sox players play roughly half there games at Fenway, one might imagine that Fenway Park boosts the batting average of the typical Red Sox player by 10 points.

One measure is called the Park Index, which is an estimate of the amount by which a given statistic is inflated by the home ballpark. For example, take a stat like runs - the Park Run Index is simply the ratio of runs at home to runs on the road. Importantly, the Park Index looks at runs scored by both the home and visiting teams, since home teams usually hit better at home than they do on the road.

Example: Coors Field in 1996 registered the highest run index of all time. The Rockies scored 658 runs at home, while opponents scored 559 runs at Coors. On the road, the Rockies scored 303 runs and gave up 405. So the Run Index is:

Coors RI = (658+559)/(303+405) = 1.72

The ratio is usually stated as a percentage rather than as a decimal - thus, we say that Coors Field had a run index of 172.

The same process can be used to develop an index for runs scored, hits, extra-base hits, home runs, or any other stat.



The next step is to convert this index to a Park Factor. Say a ballpark boosts run production by 72% (i.e. has a Park Index of 172) - intuitively, one might think that a team's run production has been exaggerated by 36% throughout the year - thus, a Park Factor of 136 can be used to adjust a team's statistics, meaning that we should divide Colorado's runs by 1.36 to get a true measure of their ability to score runs.

But two adjustments have to be made. First of all, teams may play more innings on the road than at home - remember, the home team doesn't always have to hit in the bottom of the ninth. If the number of innings played at home and on the road differ, than the Park Factor shouldn't be the simple average of the Park Index and 100, but a weighted average.

Second, simply creating a Park Factor of 136 for all the players on the Colorado Rockies of 1996 will actually overcorrect the problem. That's because all the other players in the National League got to play some portion of their road games in Coors; the Rockies players did not get this advantage, so their road statistics will be depressed relative to what other teams produced.

Pretend that Colorado had played some portion - 1 in 15, to be precise - of their road games at Coors. Then their road statistics would be a little higher, boosted by the same element that helped all other NL teams. Ideally, to remove the park effects from all stats, we should have each of the 16 teams in the NL play 1/16th of their games in each park.

Statistically, we can get there by making the Park Factor a weighted average of the Park Index (adjusted for the innings differential) and 100 (the league average).

Example: The Park Factor for Coors Field in 1996 is calculated in the following manner. There are 16 teams in the NL, so each team plays 1 in 15 road games at Coors.

So if PI is the Park Index:

PF = ((15 x PI) + (16 - PI))/ (15 x 2) = 1.336

Again, the Park Factor is usually stated as a percentage rather than as a decimal - thus, we say that Coors Field had a Park Factor of 133.6



wil.

You really think ARod can't hit 40? Come on, the guy gained a ton of protection in the lineup. I think the stadium thing is overated for a guy like this, he can hit it out to any part of the park and the short porches in both left and right can't hurt him. Besides most teams try to line up as many lefties against the Yanks as they can, ARod gains from that. He may not win the HR title, but pretty sure if he is healthy all year he will hit around 45.

Highest Run Index (Single Season)

1
Coors Field
Colorado (NL)
1996
172

2
Louisville Baseball Park
Louisville (NL)
1877
165

3
Coors Field
Colorado (NL)
1995
164

4
Fenway Park II
Boston (AL)
1955
156

5
Baker Bowl
Philadelphia (NL)
1933
153

6
Mile High Stadium
Colorado (NL)
1993
152

7
South End Grounds III
Boston (NL)
1900
148

8
23rd Street Grounds
Chicago (NL)
1876
145

9
Baker Bowl
Philadelphia (NL)
1925
144

10
Baker Bowl
Philadelphia (NL)
1925
144

11
Weegham Stadium/Wrigley Field
Chicago (NL)
1970
143

12
Baker Bowl
Philadelphia (NL)
1922
141

13
Weegham Stadium/Wrigley Field
Chicago (NL)
1985
140

14
Sportsman's Park I
St. Louis (AA)
1890
139

15
Weegham Stadium/Wrigley Field
Chicago (NL)
1916
138

16
Sportsman's Park III/Busch Stadium I
St. Louis (AL)
1933
138

17
Hilltop Park
New York (AL)
1906
137

18
Palace of the Fans
Cincinnati (NL)
1906
137

19
Baker Bowl
Philadelphia (NL)
1935
137

20
Fenway Park II
Boston (AL)
1977
137

A Rod has 14 homeruns in 173 career at bats in Yankee Stadium. Your right- he won't hit 40- he'll hit 50.

Ok, its time to clear up some more misconceptions on this ARod/Soriano deal...

Originally posted by Horseshoe...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>I wouldn't touch a free swinger like Soriano, without the lumber that once surrounded him <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
The lumber that once surrounded him??? Soriano hit leadoff, remember? Which meant that he was normally surrounded by a ninth and 2nd place hitter. On the Yanks, that was usually Karim Garcia, Aaron Boone, Nick Johnson and OCCASIONALLY Derek Jeter. That is, when Jeter wasn't batting 3rd. These are hardly players that you would be afraid to meet if you pitched around Soriano.

Originally posted by Wild Bill...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Come on, the guy gained a ton of protection in the lineup.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Arod's protection in the Yanks lineup will be Giambi and Sheffield most likely. His protection in Texas was Blaylock, Palmeiro, and Teixeira. Ok, so where do you see the huge increase in protection? If Rodriguez had so little protection in Texas, don't you think he would've walked more than 249 times in 2112 AB's the last 3 years (8.5 AB's/BB)? Compare this to B. Bonds (3.43 AB/BB).

Originally posted by Wild Bill...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Besides most teams try to line up as many lefties against the Yanks as they can, ARod gains from that.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Oh really?? Think again...
Rodriguez stats vs lefties last 3 years: 13.28 AB/HR and .280
Rodriguez stats vs righties: 11.54 AB/HR and .314


Still need more convincing?? The following is a list of EVERY significant righthanded hitting pickup by the Yanks in the last 8 or 9 years:

Raul Mondesi
Aaron Boone
Todd Ziele
Jose Vizcaino
Jim Leyritz
Jose Canseco
Chuck Knoblauch
Scott Brosius
Cecil Fielder
Danny Tartabull

In EVERY case, with the possible exception of Brosius, each player's offensive output was significantly less in his time with the Yanks than the years immediately prior to or immediately after leaving them!

I stand by what I said - the Yanks will be the one's crying about this deal when all is said and done. Rob Funk was exactly right in the other thread when he stated "if only they had a will a-rod NOT hit the most home runs at 1-5" prop somewhere. That would be a prop with value!