SORIANO 15/1 TO HIT MOST HOMERS 02/20/04 - by Arne Lang
http://www.therx.com/nm/templates/article.asp?articleid=1558&zoneid=33
On January 3, 1920, the New York Yankees acquired Babe Ruth from the cash-strapped Red Sox without giving up another player in return. Considering the media coverage of the Alex Rodriguez deal, a fellow that didn’t know any better might think that this was another strictly cash transaction.
The newest Yankee is the Babe Ruth of shortstops. The first reigning MVP to switch teams, Alex Rodriguez has led the American League in home runs three years running. The Yankees are also bolstering their infield defense. Though A-Rod committed just 18 errors in his last 1,422 chances, he will apparently be required to learn a new position.
But let’s not jump to conclusions. Alfonzo Soriano, the other party to the transaction, is hardly chopped liver. In fact, line movement at the Palms sports book in Las Vegas is fodder for the supposition that the Rangers actually got the best of the deal, at least from an offensive standpoint!
At the Palms, Soriano opened at 50/1 in the home run future book. A proactive adjustment when the trade was announced did not deflect a big steam play. At last glance, Soriano sat at 15/1 to lead the majors in homers. That’s the most conspicuous dip of any player on the board.
Over the last two seasons, only Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Jason Giambi, and Rafael Palmeiro have belted more homers than Soriano.
As Bill James informed us long ago, a player’s home run stroke is only one part of the home run equation. The ballpark factor is huge. There’s a reason why the Rangers led the AL in home runs last year while ranking only ninth in the league in team batting average. Sure it had something to do with the lineup, but it mattered greatly that the Rangers played half their games in a home run-friendly facility.
A herky-jerky gazelle, Soriano is a freak of nature. Two years ago, when he hit 39 home runs, the Yankees listed his weight at 160 pounds. Similar to his listed age, that figure was probably low. But Soriano, who began his pro career in Japan, was crushing line drives over the fence before he had grown into his body.
If Soriano starts out hot, he doesn’t figure to see many good pitches. But he’s not a disciplined hitter anyway, so this shouldn’t be all that relevant. There are some folks in New York that would tell you Soriano was the best bad-ball hitter in pinstripes since Yogi Berra.
Conversely, Alex Rodriguez figures to see more good pitches than ever in 2004. While he’ll be hitting in a tougher park than was true in Seattle and Arlington, pitchers won’t be able to be as cute with him and that might actually increase his home run production. Nonetheless, we wish that we had taken a piece of Soriano before the odds got bet down.
Alex Rodriguez (4/1) remains the favorite to lead the majors in regular-season home runs at the Palms, according to sports supervisor Todd Crafts. Besides Alfonso Soriano, only two other players have thus far attracted sufficient action to compel a downward line adjustment – Jeromy Burnitz (40/1 to 25/1) and Adam Dunn (50/1 to 40/1).
A free-agent pick-up by the Rockies, Burnitz, hit 31 home runs last year with the Mets and Dodgers. The Rockies have never produced a major league home run leader, but Dante Bichette, Andres Galarraga, and Larry Walker led the NL in homers in consecutive years (1995-97).
The strapping 24-year old Dunn, a former Texas Longhorns quarterback prospect, is a work in progress. Last year, he batted only .215 but hit 27 home runs in only 116 games with the Reds before his season was curtailed by a thumb injury. Eighteen of his first 37 hits were four-baggers.
In the pitching department, Mark Prior has leapfrogged Roy Halladay and is currently dressed as the favorite in The Palms’ “most regular-season wins” proposition. Prior, who was on a major league opening day roster for the first time last year, has been bet down from 10/1 to 6/1.
As of February 20, only three other pitchers had seen their odds drop in response to wagering activity – Red Sox newcomer Curt Schilling (12/1 to 11/1), Yankees right-hander Javier Vazquez (20/1 to 10/1), and Twins southpaw Johan Santana (40/1 to 25/1).
Las Vegas native Greg Maddux currently sits at 30/1 after opening 40/1. According to informal surveys, the Cubs are the second-most popular baseball team among visitors to Las Vegas, trailing only the Dodgers.
Since the two future books were first posted, the odds have been raised – that is, made more generous -- on roughly one-quarter of the entrants.
We’ll let you decide whether there’s fair value in these kinds of propositions, but we’d encourage you to think outside the box. If a bookmaker made every team 6/1 in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, bettors would scream to high heaven. But the unimaginative bet-taker might write only one bet – on the team that should have been 3/1 all along.
Crafts is working on more baseball “fun stuff,” and hopes to have the full menu up by March 1. Last year’s smorgasbord included an over/under on total hits, RBIs, and runs scored by Jason Giambi.
http://www.therx.com/nm/templates/article.asp?articleid=1558&zoneid=33
On January 3, 1920, the New York Yankees acquired Babe Ruth from the cash-strapped Red Sox without giving up another player in return. Considering the media coverage of the Alex Rodriguez deal, a fellow that didn’t know any better might think that this was another strictly cash transaction.
The newest Yankee is the Babe Ruth of shortstops. The first reigning MVP to switch teams, Alex Rodriguez has led the American League in home runs three years running. The Yankees are also bolstering their infield defense. Though A-Rod committed just 18 errors in his last 1,422 chances, he will apparently be required to learn a new position.
But let’s not jump to conclusions. Alfonzo Soriano, the other party to the transaction, is hardly chopped liver. In fact, line movement at the Palms sports book in Las Vegas is fodder for the supposition that the Rangers actually got the best of the deal, at least from an offensive standpoint!
At the Palms, Soriano opened at 50/1 in the home run future book. A proactive adjustment when the trade was announced did not deflect a big steam play. At last glance, Soriano sat at 15/1 to lead the majors in homers. That’s the most conspicuous dip of any player on the board.
Over the last two seasons, only Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Jason Giambi, and Rafael Palmeiro have belted more homers than Soriano.
As Bill James informed us long ago, a player’s home run stroke is only one part of the home run equation. The ballpark factor is huge. There’s a reason why the Rangers led the AL in home runs last year while ranking only ninth in the league in team batting average. Sure it had something to do with the lineup, but it mattered greatly that the Rangers played half their games in a home run-friendly facility.
A herky-jerky gazelle, Soriano is a freak of nature. Two years ago, when he hit 39 home runs, the Yankees listed his weight at 160 pounds. Similar to his listed age, that figure was probably low. But Soriano, who began his pro career in Japan, was crushing line drives over the fence before he had grown into his body.
If Soriano starts out hot, he doesn’t figure to see many good pitches. But he’s not a disciplined hitter anyway, so this shouldn’t be all that relevant. There are some folks in New York that would tell you Soriano was the best bad-ball hitter in pinstripes since Yogi Berra.
Conversely, Alex Rodriguez figures to see more good pitches than ever in 2004. While he’ll be hitting in a tougher park than was true in Seattle and Arlington, pitchers won’t be able to be as cute with him and that might actually increase his home run production. Nonetheless, we wish that we had taken a piece of Soriano before the odds got bet down.
Alex Rodriguez (4/1) remains the favorite to lead the majors in regular-season home runs at the Palms, according to sports supervisor Todd Crafts. Besides Alfonso Soriano, only two other players have thus far attracted sufficient action to compel a downward line adjustment – Jeromy Burnitz (40/1 to 25/1) and Adam Dunn (50/1 to 40/1).
A free-agent pick-up by the Rockies, Burnitz, hit 31 home runs last year with the Mets and Dodgers. The Rockies have never produced a major league home run leader, but Dante Bichette, Andres Galarraga, and Larry Walker led the NL in homers in consecutive years (1995-97).
The strapping 24-year old Dunn, a former Texas Longhorns quarterback prospect, is a work in progress. Last year, he batted only .215 but hit 27 home runs in only 116 games with the Reds before his season was curtailed by a thumb injury. Eighteen of his first 37 hits were four-baggers.
In the pitching department, Mark Prior has leapfrogged Roy Halladay and is currently dressed as the favorite in The Palms’ “most regular-season wins” proposition. Prior, who was on a major league opening day roster for the first time last year, has been bet down from 10/1 to 6/1.
As of February 20, only three other pitchers had seen their odds drop in response to wagering activity – Red Sox newcomer Curt Schilling (12/1 to 11/1), Yankees right-hander Javier Vazquez (20/1 to 10/1), and Twins southpaw Johan Santana (40/1 to 25/1).
Las Vegas native Greg Maddux currently sits at 30/1 after opening 40/1. According to informal surveys, the Cubs are the second-most popular baseball team among visitors to Las Vegas, trailing only the Dodgers.
Since the two future books were first posted, the odds have been raised – that is, made more generous -- on roughly one-quarter of the entrants.
We’ll let you decide whether there’s fair value in these kinds of propositions, but we’d encourage you to think outside the box. If a bookmaker made every team 6/1 in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, bettors would scream to high heaven. But the unimaginative bet-taker might write only one bet – on the team that should have been 3/1 all along.
Crafts is working on more baseball “fun stuff,” and hopes to have the full menu up by March 1. Last year’s smorgasbord included an over/under on total hits, RBIs, and runs scored by Jason Giambi.
