Gambling 101 Thu, Feb 19, 2004
Books overreact to Yankee hype
Stephen Nover
Hearing all this Alex Rodriguez talk and seeing the New York Yankees’ World Series odds just 2-1, maybe we should award the Yankees the championship right now.
“We can’t make them low enough,” said John Harper, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “They (the Yankees) are getting so much publicity. You can’t overcome that. Places are going to end up booking them at 1-4.”
LVSC, which services most of the hotels in Nevada, has the Yankees 2-1 to win the World Series. So do a number of Internet books, including Millennium and MVP Sportsbook. Olympic has the Yankees at plus $1.50 to win the championship.
Hey, isn’t this still basketball season? But the Rodriguez for Alfonso Soriano trade is still milking the headlines, and causing panicky bookmakers to continually adjust their Yankees’ futures downward.
A daring bookmaker shouldn’t lower the Yankees’ Series odds. Keep them at 3-1 or 4-1. That way he could draw heavy futures play, while having a strong edge. The Yankees haven’t won the World Series in three years, and they won’t win it this season unless they upgrade their pitching.
“Everybody forgets you have to pitch in these games,” Harper said. LVSC has the Boston Red Sox with the second-lowest odds to win the Series at 5-2.
“It’s hard to say which team (Yankees or Red Sox) improved themselves the most,” Harper said, “Boston’s rotation looks stronger then the Yankees. That’s the key thing. Boston also improved its bullpen. The Red Sox also scored more runs than the Yankees last year. It may go down to the 11th inning in the seventh game again. More likely one of the Western teams will be better than both of them.”
The A’s, Mariners and Angeles aren’t exactly chopped liver in the American League. Rodriguez is well on his way to the Hall of Fame, and still very much in his prime. But his power numbers last year of 47 homers and 118 runs batted in, look different now that he’s at third base instead of shortstop.
Even though this is a golden era for power-hitting shortstops, third base has always been a prime power position. Aramis Ramirez, for instance, drove in just 12 fewer RBI’s than Rodriguez last year. Ironically, Aaron Boone probably would have been the Yankees’ opening-day third baseman if he didn’t get hurt during the offseason. He had a respectable 24 homers and 96 RBI’s last year. Nobody would be talking about the Yankees in February if Boone didn’t get injured.
No knock on A-Rod, but he didn’t even hit .300 last season. The Yankees didn’t exactly get Rodriguez for a pair of cheap Broadway seats. Soriano batted just eight points less than A-Rod at .290. He had 28 homers, 91 runs batted in and stole 35 bases.
So all the Yankees’ gain between A-Rod and Soriano, based on last season, is eight points in average, nine extra homers, 10 more runs scored and 27 RBI’s. You also have to factor in Soriano was the Yankees’ main base-stealing threat and played second base. Now the Yankees have to find a second baseman, unless they want to go through a year with Miguel Cairo and Enrique Wilson manning the position. That would be a joke for a team with such low World Series odds.
Don’t be shocked if Soriano finishes with better statistics than A-Rod this season. By going to the Rangers, Soriano will now be hitting in the best offensive ballpark in the American League. The right-handed Rodriguez, on the other hand, is going to have to deal with a long left and center field at Yankee Stadium. A-Rod also will be learning a new position, while dealing with a much more pressure-packed environment than he’s used to.
If this isn’t enough to stop overrating and overpricing the Yankees, consider their starting pitching. Without Andy Pettitte, their best big-game pitcher, and David Wells they no longer have a lefty in the starting rotation. To replace Roger Clemens, Pettitte and Wells, they’ve added Kevin Brown and Javier Vasquez, while hoping Jon Lieber can rebound from reconstructive elbow surgery that kept him from pitching last season. The 38-year-old Brown hasn’t been fully healthy in three seasons. Vazquez is one of those pitchers whose strikeouts and potential don’t translate to victories. He’s never won more than 16 games.
These aren’t the only major question marks the Yankees have. They have yet to find a trusted setup man for Mariano Rivera. Their latest projects are Steve Karsay and Tom Gordon, two more broken down pitchers. It remains to be seen, too, if the Yankees can get big production in center field from aging Bernie Williams and Kenny Lofton. Neither has a strong throwing arm, and their combined age is 71.
Just because the public overreacts to the Yankees and all the A-Rod publicity doesn’t mean bookmakers should, too, despite all the small little Yankee bets coming their way.
Nobody is wired more into the sports betting scene than Stephen Nover. Nover has been covering sports gaming in Las Vegas since 1984, and has been the premier offshore analyst since 2000. Stephen's industry articles can be found on Covers Gaming. His Guaranteed Picks can be found at Covers Experts.
www.covers.com
Books overreact to Yankee hype
Stephen Nover
Hearing all this Alex Rodriguez talk and seeing the New York Yankees’ World Series odds just 2-1, maybe we should award the Yankees the championship right now.
“We can’t make them low enough,” said John Harper, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “They (the Yankees) are getting so much publicity. You can’t overcome that. Places are going to end up booking them at 1-4.”
LVSC, which services most of the hotels in Nevada, has the Yankees 2-1 to win the World Series. So do a number of Internet books, including Millennium and MVP Sportsbook. Olympic has the Yankees at plus $1.50 to win the championship.
Hey, isn’t this still basketball season? But the Rodriguez for Alfonso Soriano trade is still milking the headlines, and causing panicky bookmakers to continually adjust their Yankees’ futures downward.
A daring bookmaker shouldn’t lower the Yankees’ Series odds. Keep them at 3-1 or 4-1. That way he could draw heavy futures play, while having a strong edge. The Yankees haven’t won the World Series in three years, and they won’t win it this season unless they upgrade their pitching.
“Everybody forgets you have to pitch in these games,” Harper said. LVSC has the Boston Red Sox with the second-lowest odds to win the Series at 5-2.
“It’s hard to say which team (Yankees or Red Sox) improved themselves the most,” Harper said, “Boston’s rotation looks stronger then the Yankees. That’s the key thing. Boston also improved its bullpen. The Red Sox also scored more runs than the Yankees last year. It may go down to the 11th inning in the seventh game again. More likely one of the Western teams will be better than both of them.”
The A’s, Mariners and Angeles aren’t exactly chopped liver in the American League. Rodriguez is well on his way to the Hall of Fame, and still very much in his prime. But his power numbers last year of 47 homers and 118 runs batted in, look different now that he’s at third base instead of shortstop.
Even though this is a golden era for power-hitting shortstops, third base has always been a prime power position. Aramis Ramirez, for instance, drove in just 12 fewer RBI’s than Rodriguez last year. Ironically, Aaron Boone probably would have been the Yankees’ opening-day third baseman if he didn’t get hurt during the offseason. He had a respectable 24 homers and 96 RBI’s last year. Nobody would be talking about the Yankees in February if Boone didn’t get injured.
No knock on A-Rod, but he didn’t even hit .300 last season. The Yankees didn’t exactly get Rodriguez for a pair of cheap Broadway seats. Soriano batted just eight points less than A-Rod at .290. He had 28 homers, 91 runs batted in and stole 35 bases.
So all the Yankees’ gain between A-Rod and Soriano, based on last season, is eight points in average, nine extra homers, 10 more runs scored and 27 RBI’s. You also have to factor in Soriano was the Yankees’ main base-stealing threat and played second base. Now the Yankees have to find a second baseman, unless they want to go through a year with Miguel Cairo and Enrique Wilson manning the position. That would be a joke for a team with such low World Series odds.
Don’t be shocked if Soriano finishes with better statistics than A-Rod this season. By going to the Rangers, Soriano will now be hitting in the best offensive ballpark in the American League. The right-handed Rodriguez, on the other hand, is going to have to deal with a long left and center field at Yankee Stadium. A-Rod also will be learning a new position, while dealing with a much more pressure-packed environment than he’s used to.
If this isn’t enough to stop overrating and overpricing the Yankees, consider their starting pitching. Without Andy Pettitte, their best big-game pitcher, and David Wells they no longer have a lefty in the starting rotation. To replace Roger Clemens, Pettitte and Wells, they’ve added Kevin Brown and Javier Vasquez, while hoping Jon Lieber can rebound from reconstructive elbow surgery that kept him from pitching last season. The 38-year-old Brown hasn’t been fully healthy in three seasons. Vazquez is one of those pitchers whose strikeouts and potential don’t translate to victories. He’s never won more than 16 games.
These aren’t the only major question marks the Yankees have. They have yet to find a trusted setup man for Mariano Rivera. Their latest projects are Steve Karsay and Tom Gordon, two more broken down pitchers. It remains to be seen, too, if the Yankees can get big production in center field from aging Bernie Williams and Kenny Lofton. Neither has a strong throwing arm, and their combined age is 71.
Just because the public overreacts to the Yankees and all the A-Rod publicity doesn’t mean bookmakers should, too, despite all the small little Yankee bets coming their way.
Nobody is wired more into the sports betting scene than Stephen Nover. Nover has been covering sports gaming in Las Vegas since 1984, and has been the premier offshore analyst since 2000. Stephen's industry articles can be found on Covers Gaming. His Guaranteed Picks can be found at Covers Experts.
www.covers.com
