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02-14-2004, 12:30 PM
There was a great middle situation on the Florida International/Arkansas Little Rock game. Game opened up at 14 and closed at 17 after FIU leading scorer was announced out for game. UALR won by 16. Is there anyone out there that would be willing to share how they recognize these situations? Is there money to be made in middles?
this to me is more 'forecasting' than middling...middling would be if you could find two varying lines at the same time...forecasting would be when you accurately predict the way the line would move...
sportsavant,
I tend to agree. Thanks.
you must be able arbitrage opening numbers and take leads your numbers must be strongerso the games move with you , years ago numbers use to run a little now some people buy back as soon as the number between 1 & 10 becomes out of line 11/2 over 10 you need at least 2
great thread and views gentleman thanks for sharing
Middling is idiotic.
It presumes that both bets have the same expectation.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Sodium Pentethol V:
Middling is idiotic.
It presumes that both bets have the same expectation.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Buzzzzz. Wrong answer. At base, it presumes that both bets have a POSITIVE expectation. It can also mean that one can't judge which side has the better expectation, but one can judge that the combination of bets is positive.
Good example today:
Marquette -1 -110
Memphis +122 Money Line.
Not 100% risk free, but an obvious "good" play. And when the line was 1.5 (and looking to be moving up) an argument could have been made for either play.
"Middling is idiotic."
SPV: I'm very happy you feel that way - spread the word, keep people from middling, leaves more for the rest of us idiots
Fezzik, what do you call that? I like to call that a "polish middle" (or in this case, polish side).
A good play with those numbers though. Definitely better than the 1 to 17.5 cost. Probably more like a 1 in 50 proposition.
Sodium, I take it from your opinion that scalping must also be idiotic, right?
With 2 of my locals, I laid Arkansas Little Rock - 14 -120 for a dime. I then called one of my other books and took Florida Intl + 17 - 110 for a dime as well. The game falls on the magic number of "16." WOW! I usually don't try for middles, unless they are half-times, but this opportunity presented itself with my locals because I have won a large amount this week and figured, why not?
Just don't try this online with the same book ... I learned my lession with WagerStreet earlier this week ... It is definately frowned upon if you do it with the same sportsbook ...
Take care.
CE
CE, How much does your locals take, tiny or heavy action?..mug sized or a bucket full?
I have at least 7 different locals that I can call ... all take at least a dime action, some as much as three dimes per game ...
Out of those 7 books, two of them do NOT move their lines once they get them and they don't care about sharp action, because they have enough business to even things out.
Later.
CE
Nice options CE, any Poker or Horse degens in the bunch?..seems like most BMs love a hobby.
Here's hoping you make hay this year!
Kojak you need slow local bookmakers or like CE ones that dont move lines--You will not lose middling games 1 out of 21=even and to side a game 1 out of 11=break even.But the real risk lies with collecting from your local books. YOU WILL BREAK THEM and have to pay the other side of losses to the real books SO KEEP YOUR WINS WITH LOCALS MINIMAL,when your losing to them play more middles.DONT PLAY 15 GAMES at 1000 each on busy day- these LOCALS always have a 2-13 record at some time and WILL NOT PAY.Find these weak outs and Don't get greedy.YOU WILL BE LUCKY IF THEY PAY YOU AND QUIT YOU AT SAME TIME--good luck
middling in Las Vages has brought Vegas to where it is today greater hold much less handle middlers were cut cutting in to hold percentage if they think you a runner for a middling or .That scalping group you can get your self barred no cell phones no beepers sport books were were petrfied that is why they wont come off numbers add money lines to key numbers a lot of people made alot of money it was a industry of it own almost everbody lost thier jobs goverment came in confiscated a lot of money. Dont fool with Vegas money they will change rules that is why offshore is so strong middling use to be easy . the numbers use to run a little now it is so comppetive everyone is forced to buy back to soon no run on numbers
The steam will move on a game like just because the line is off by 3 or more no matter what the game just for the chance. No thinking just the numbers
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Buzzzzz. Wrong answer. At base, it presumes that both bets have a POSITIVE expectation. It can also mean that one can't judge which side has the better expectation, but one can judge that the combination of bets is positive. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Buzzzzz save your third grade bullshit for the kiddies. Wrong? Really? Find alot of blokes staggering their bet based on expectation? In the vast majority, read 99.9% of situations the poster referred to the bettor is betting equal amounts on two bets, that implies an assumption that they presume equal expectation. You must be a member of the "blokes that stagger their middle bets based on expectation club" congrats you are the only member.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> At base, it presumes that both bets have a POSITIVE expectation. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Really? It presumes the combination of bets
has a positive expectation, not both.
Jazz it is idiotic because any idiot can do it and earn money commensurate with being an idiot.
"Truth" Serum?
Starting after World War II as a way of treating war neuroses, psychiatrists often used Sodium Pentothal as part of narcotherapy, a drug treatment that is comparable to hypnosis. A psychiatrist would administer a very small dose of the drug (a dose too small to produce unconsciousness), causing the patient's heart rate to slow, relieving tension and anxiety and producing a state of complete relaxation. The idea behind narcotherapy was to make the patient more susceptible to suggestion than normal, allowing the psychiatrist to uncover repressed feelings or memories. Since hypnosis only works on about 20% of the population, the use of sedatives as a part of narcotherapy (including Sodium Pentothal, Sodium Amytal and Scopalamine, all classified as "hypnotics") was therefore considered a good alternative.
Sodium Pentothal received the nickname "Truth Serum" because its effects, guided by the psychiatrist in therapy sessions, caused the patient to become very communicative, verbalizing thoughts easily without inhibition. While under the effect of the drug, however, the patient may lose his inhibitions, but he does not lose self-control (just as in hypnosis: a person can't be hypnotized into doing something he doesn't want to do, or is unnatural to him, like robbing a bank). For that reason, a patient will not tell the truth if he chooses not to. It's not like those scenes from old TV shows, where the guy gets injected with Sodium Pentothal and, after an enormous internal struggle, is forced to speak the truth; Sodium Pentothal as a way of determining the truth depends entirely on the willingness of the patient.
---------------------------------------
SPV: just a little idiotic information on your namesake - sodium pentothal is not equivalent to getting the truth. As far as your egotistical evaluation of middling and/or scalping goes, I wish I could say it's insulting but it isn't. Any 'idiot' can do a lot of things, probably doing Fourier transformations and other complex jobs is not one of them, as well as straight gambling. However, an 'investor' who has otherwise almost no interest in spending the majority of his waking hours analyzing sports so he can grind out a 53-55% win rate can do quite well for himself (or herself of course) doing 'idiot's work'.
That was much more true a few years ago than today. However, if you gave me a choice between being a sports 'genius' who may or may not win during even a year (even good cappers have bad streaks), and an 'idiot' who was absolutely guaranteed to make nice money all year-round, then give me the dunce's cap and sit me in the corner.
I'm not in it to compare egos - I'm was/am in it for the money. I managed to eke out a Phi Beta Kappa in college, and idiot that I am I still chose middling.
Go figger.
p.s. it's spelled 'pentothal', not 'pentethol' - you must have misspelled it on purpose because someone else had that nickname, I'm assuming.
[This message was edited by Jazz on February 15, 2004 at 12:27 PM.]
[This message was edited by Jazz on February 15, 2004 at 12:28 PM.]
[This message was edited by Jazz on February 15, 2004 at 12:32 PM.]
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Sodium Pentethol V:
D2bets said: Buzzzzz. Wrong answer. At base, it presumes that both bets have a POSITIVE expectation. It can also mean that one can't judge which side has the better expectation, but one can judge that the combination of bets is positive. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Buzzzzz save your third grade bullshit for the kiddies. Wrong? Really? Find alot of blokes staggering their bet based on expectation? In the vast majority, read 99.9% of situations the poster referred to the bettor is betting equal amounts on two bets, that implies an assumption that they presume equal expectation. You must be a member of the "blokes that stagger their middle bets based on expectation club" congrats you are the only member.<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
Actually I do tend to "overbet" the "soft line" as compared to the line closer to consensus. Whether it's precisely commensurate with the expectation is quite frankly, in the end, de minimis and not worth spending additional time refining. But even if one does play both sides equally, if it can be determined that the combination is a positive expectation, then I simply cannot see how that can be "idiotic" as compared to a more volative straight up betting approach for which itis much more difficult to accurately judge expectation.
[QUOTE]At base, it presumes that both bets have a POSITIVE expectation.
Really? It presumes the combination of bets
has a positive expectation, not both.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
If you'd read my very next sentence, I said: "It can also mean that one can't judge which side has the better expectation, but one can judge that the combination of bets is positive." The "at base" comment was in trying to be generous to your side of the argument but if you want to make my argument for me then be my guest.
[QUOTE]Jazz it is idiotic because any idiot can do it and earn money commensurate with being an idiot.[QUOTE]
Well, if that idiot earns money doing it then by all accounts he is among the 2% that do so. It would seem to me that those who are more successful than 98% of others in their craft typically aren't called idiots.
Only thing I can add here is if you are going to be a "middler", then do it most often. Taking shots in the dark occasionaly is not the way to go about it IMO.
Good luck
Middling/Scalping/Arbing=earn less because of an inablity to discern which bet has the higher expectation. It is not free money, you are paying a fee to the holder of the paper on the lesser of the two bets for the priviledge of betting risk free.
There is no counter argument too, I win therefore I am not an idiot. It is a matter of how much to earn.
The question was how do you recognize a good middle? There is no such thing as a good middle, one bet's return will alway's dilute the other's.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>But even if one does play both sides equally, if it can be determined that the combination is a positive expectation, then I simply cannot see how that can be "idiotic" as compared to a more volative straight up betting approach for which itis much more difficult to accurately judge expectation.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Difficult as in requires effort? No originators bet both sides unless they are manipulating, so I guess the top earners see things differently.
do a search. . this topic has been discussed endlessly many times.
i think the strongest arguements made were that certain sports have stronger numbers to middle than others and that a lot of statistical research should be done before diving into becoming a day in and day out middle player.
"The question was how do you recognize a good middle? There is no such thing as a good middle, one bet's return will alway's dilute the other's."
I'm not going about this discussion arguing whether an open bet should be converted into a middle, because my bets are purporsefully taken with middling in mind - period. From that point of view, assuming you have the proper combination of points + odds, it is irrelevant what the expectations are on either side. That's true whether you took the original bet on simple speculation or covered both bets simultaneously. There ARE exceptions, of course, especially in the NBA when you find out someone like Shaquille or O'Grady are now out (or in) and you're sitting on the best bet - when players have an undeniable major impact on a team like those 2, you're well advised to sit on the original bet.
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