Semi advanced middleing question

randyrohm · Feb 12, 2004

You have 1 play on the night (not really) it is a middle attemt. USC/AZ over 170 220/200
USC/AZ under 173 220/200. The haft score id 40/39 AZ. 2nd half total is 87-, I played over for 54/50. This gives me a 167-173 to show a profit on the play. Did I add any value with the 2nd half action?

royalfan · Feb 12, 2004

in my opinion you did not help yourself.

randyrohm · Feb 12, 2004

At this point I agree, glad it not my only play

Fezzik · Feb 12, 2004

A very share sharp play. Surely, your time would be better spent than trying to exactly match your arbitrage, AND give back some + EV by doing it.

picasso · Feb 12, 2004

IMO, you hurt yourself. The second half bet is a separate event. If I understand correctly, you effectively bet blindly on a number (thus, no perceived value) at a price of -108.

randyrohm · Feb 12, 2004

My rational (maybe flawed) is I need over to have a shot at the middle. I get 3 more #'s that give me a pinch on the play, plus if it does hit the original middle the pot is sweetened a little, if not -74 I can live with. Just throwing out a theory.