Not having looked at the stats, I'd say it would make more sense if after 4 games in 5 nights the said team lost.. But you have to look at if they played at home or away, and how much travel time was involved, how hard each of the games was relative to the next, injuries...etc. Also, remember that any decent team has very well conditioned athletes that can handle playing that much w/o too much negative affect on their performance.
You could have an angle as far as the fact that the teams have about the same odds of winning as if they had a few days of rest, but the bookies give you a really good dog line...Might be a lot of value there if you can show it is a trend and not just an odd week.
You could have an angle as far as the fact that the teams have about the same odds of winning as if they had a few days of rest, but the bookies give you a really good dog line...Might be a lot of value there if you can show it is a trend and not just an odd week.
Back to back and 4 in 5 are the two most overrated fades I can think of off the top of my head in sports. Lines are adjusted to it so it is hard to find value in most cases. If you are going to fade these teams be selective and look for a team that is "satisfied" with their previous 4 of the 5 and likely to ease up.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by exilarch:
Back to back sometimes works when you have certain inside info. For example,on Thur,feb 5, I had info from the local grapevine that the Lakers did not arrive in their rooms until 4 am. They promptly got blown out by Philadelphia, a bad team,and I won one unit.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Very good point. Info like they had major delays and only slept like 2 hours gets the job done. simple back to back not enough.
Back to back sometimes works when you have certain inside info. For example,on Thur,feb 5, I had info from the local grapevine that the Lakers did not arrive in their rooms until 4 am. They promptly got blown out by Philadelphia, a bad team,and I won one unit.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Very good point. Info like they had major delays and only slept like 2 hours gets the job done. simple back to back not enough.
I follow the 4 in 5 and back to back schedule info but I feel it's importance varies by sport. In the NBA it isn't worth much, probably because the players aren't putting out 100% very often. Thst's just my opinion...I think practically the whole league's broken.
In hockey is where I see fatigue make a difference. I look for three in four nights, especially when the last two are back to back and away.
In hockey is where I see fatigue make a difference. I look for three in four nights, especially when the last two are back to back and away.
