From the Newbies Forum

I took the liberty of copy/paste this thread from the Newbies Forum. I think it will get more responses here than there.

Originally posted by Heavy T:

"Hi folks. I have been reading for for a few months and thought now is a good time to contribute. I have not posted due to lack of typing skills but thought if everyone only read like me then there would be no site so here I am pecking away. I am here only to post my plays that I wager on and to get feedback on those plays as well as communicate with others who are in the same business I am in.
I look to have fun. Not looking to bash or judge.
I do have questions though as how to properly operate your sport wagering business.
I have read mc cunes book along with gordon, wong and miller. I have then concluded a few things from each of them and that is my basis of operation. here it is.

1. nba totals is the best moneymaker.Even though I am not quite sure how to do this.

2. unit ratings or wagering more on one game or another is not worth the risk. Straight flat betting is the best.

3. betting a percentage of bankroll.

4. 55%-58% is a good percentage of winners.

5. you must keep records.

6. you must have 4-6 outs in shopping for price.

7. gimmicks are sucker bets.

7. have an opinion on game before factoring in others thoughts.

8. make your own lines so you wont be influenced by them when you first see them.

9. winning requires taking adv. of incorrect odds and being on the good side of the erratic behavior of probability.(mccune)

10. knowledge, hard work, proper money management, odds shopping and discipline are
required to beat the man consistently.

11. mccune states that the handicapping techniques of most bettors are made up of the following:a.pure objective-numbers game, stats are the info.b.straight subjective-majority of bettors fall here. They know the players, records but are swayed by prejudiceand often look at individuals instead of overall team power and depth.c. system and trends-they look for coincidental past behavior from which they draw conclusionsconcerning the future.This seems to work well after the fact.d. historical-extensive research of the past and the uniqueness of the situation.e. biorhytm system-astrology, stars, playing hunches.

12. I try and use statistics along with recent performance and a few relevant subjective factors.

well hope I havent bored anyone. I am interested in what methods others use.

1. what type of rating system-1-5, 10 units, goy, or straight flat ratings?

2. what sportbooks or casinos and how many?

3. what handicapping technique do you use? a, b, c, d, e from above or some other.

4. where do you gather you data if you use statistical? database and what type, website like statfox or matchup or some other way?

5. what is agood starting bankroll?

6. do any of you play in tournaments and if so what, when and where?

7. whats the best way to keep records and evaluate your plays.

8. what are the best ways of setting your own lines or determining totals? How many people really do this? or does most just use what mccune calls straight subjective along with some trends and historical data?

9. whats the best events to wager on and what type of bet do most use or more immportantly makes money on? Alot of people say the books hate nba totals.But what is a good way to handicap for for nba totals?

10.I have a short list of handicappers on this site I read are there others to watch? lewis, sportsbet, kodiak, co-captain, thetexaskid, ny reb, occarsscam, zapster.

11. why doesnt everyone use only one thread? That way we can follow all ones picks and responses instesd of hundreds of threads. Also the next day post the results beside your previous days picks.
example-
mississippi state + 4 =dollar wager, % bankroll, if a unit then how much is each unit worth? Then post the result beside the pick.
providence -3 = 1% OF BANKROLL= $75.00 (won 78-72)
cleveland\new jersey over 179 = 1% = $75.00 (lost 176)

I look forward to posting my picks and communicating and learning from others on this great site that is a great resource.

thanks,

Heavy T"

I think he could use some help from you guys here...

I was a very good friend of the late Bob McCune.

We spent countless hours discussing the theories of handicapping.

Bob was one of the strongest NBA totals player EVER!!

NBA totals, when given the proper attention, is one of the best ways to attack your bookie.

If you are willing to put in the necessary time, NBA totals betting will reward you.

I dont believe NBA totals offer you quite the same value to the player as they did say 10-15 years ago and more simply because more and more players are playing them and thus the oddsmakers are making better lines.

It was not really uncommon to see 5-9 point moves on totals in the 80's.......even on the relatively low totals of the day back then, which would have been in the low 200's.

I have great success over the years betting NBA totals and here is some quick pointers you might consider when doing so.......

1. CHECK PAST PERFORMANCE SCORES IN PAST MATCH-UPS OF THE TEAMS FROM THE LAST TWO YEARS AND THE CURRENT YEAR. SEE IF YOU CAN FIND SOME NUGGETS.

2. CONCENTRATE ON THE SCORING OF THE TWO TEAMS INVOLVED IN THEIR LAST 4 and 8 games COLLECTIVELY.

3. Check each teams CURRENT schedule log and make note of the DATES of their last 3 games and their NEXT GAME OR TWO. Get a feel for a teams tendacies this way.

4. DONT BE AFRAID TO BE SELECTIVE!!!!!! WITH PROPER ATTENTION AND WORK, YOU WILL HAVE PLAYS THAT LITERALLY JUMP OFF THE STAT SHEETS AT YOU..........BUT ALWAYS STAY FOCUSED AND BET WITH YOUR HEAD, AND NOT OVER IT!


Commenting on another thing real quickly.

GET YOURSELF A MINIMUM OF at LEAST FIVE SOLID OUTS!

I would suggest if your not keen to line shopping, and a small bettor, you will find yourself doing much better with the more obscure sports.

Ones that you closely follow.

Just make sure whichever sport it may be that you are choosing, not to be gouged with outlandish high spread moneylines where you play at.