Lets see who is the first SHARP to answer this!!

Fishhead · Feb 8, 2004

Yes, I know the answer, but will be giving NO clues for the remainder of this thread.

In the NBA why is vig of -106 compared to -107 a better value as a whole than -107 is compared to -108 even though your laying only ONE CENT less juice on both scenarios?

Not a tough question, but one that I think a majority do not know.

Dante · Feb 8, 2004

because if you lose a game you laid -106 on its a few cents LESS in losses then if you lost the games with a -107 vig...and after a period of 100 years that 1 cent you have been saving equals about 2$ which you can by a long shot exacta ticket with?

Tekari · Feb 8, 2004

Are you getting at the fact that with -107 your win rate needed to breakeven is lower than with -108 and the 1 cent less in vig is still lowering your breakeven win rate by the same amount?

As in $1 off of something that is $5 is a better value than getting $1 off something that costs $100?

Tekari · Feb 8, 2004

$1 of $5 is a 20% discount whereas $1 off $100 is a 1% discount.

Fishhead · Feb 8, 2004

I said I would give no clues, but I just want to say it involves WAY MORE than just the ONE CENT LESS you will be saving on your loses as Dante pointed out......which he was right on about other than the fact you would be saving alot more than what he would lead you to believe.

Fishhead · Feb 8, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Tekari:
$1 of $5 is a 20% discount whereas $1 off $100 is a 1% discount.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I would agree with your assumption, but pales into comparison to what I believe is the correct answer.

trytrytry · Feb 8, 2004

Is the Answer: it would mean that you were not playing at BETPANAM?

Dante · Feb 8, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by trytrytry:
Is the Answer: it would mean that you were not playing at BETPANAM?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

LMFAO..I mean thats funny but not funny at the same time

Fishhead · Feb 8, 2004

TRYTRYTRY- Good point!

bryan305 · Feb 8, 2004

When you lay:
-106, you win back 94.34% of what you bet
-107, you win back 93.46% of what you bet
-108, you win back 92.59% of what you bet

when you bet 6 instead of 7, the difference is .88%
when you bet 7 instead of 8, the difference is only .87%

monicus · Feb 8, 2004

One-cent difference means more in the 106 scenario because it represents a larger percentage change than one cent is to 107.

108-107 is a 12.5% reduction
107-106 is a 14.2% reduction

docdekay · Feb 8, 2004

Assuming you're a dart thrower with no opinion just look at what the EV (expected value) is for the house for each scenario:

1)
0.50*100 - .50*106/106 = 2.83 EV for house
.50*100 - .50*107/107 = 3.27 EV for house

2) .50*100 - .50*107/107 = 3.27 EV for house
.50*100-.50*108/108 = 3.70 EV for house

The house EV is reduced by 13.46% in scenario #1, going from 107 to 106, whereas it is only reduced 11.62% in scenario #2, going from 108 to 107.

Fezzik · Feb 8, 2004

Excellent mathematical answers already. I'll take a different path. The key part of the question is the "IN THE NBA". So what separates NBA from some other sports? I'm guessing Fishhead is looking for how important half points are.

In the NBA if you are blindly betting with an extra 1/2 point in your favor, then you are going to have trouble at -108. At -107 you are at best frying hamburgers. At -106 you sail into the black betting sides. So at -106 all you need to do is identify a line off by a mere 1/2 point and the game becomes bettable.

Fishhead · Feb 8, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Fezzik:
Excellent mathematical answers already. I'll take a different path. The key part of the question is the "IN THE NBA". So what separates NBA from some other sports? I'm guessing Fishhead is looking for how important half points are.

In the NBA if you are blindly betting with an extra 1/2 point in your favor, then you are going to have trouble at -108. At -107 you are at best frying hamburgers. At -106 you sail into the black betting sides. So at -106 all you need to do is identify a line off by a mere 1/2 point and the game becomes bettable.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

BINGO!!!
BINGO!!!
BINGO!!!
WINNER WINNER.....CHICKEN DINNER!!!

DavidMatthews · Feb 8, 2004

I like this question. Nicely done Fish!

My guess is that as you get farther away from zero, the difference in one cent becomes less significant. I also don't think it is NBA specific. I think it applies universally to moneylines.

Let's say a game is lined at -1,000,000 or it is lined at -1,000,001

That would mean that I either have to lay $5,000,000 to win $5, or $5,000,005 to win $5 which is an absolutely insignificant difference. The difference is miniscule.

At -106, you would lay $106 to win $100, while at -107, you'd have to lay $107 to win $100 which is quite a bit more significant.

I like Fezzik's answer and I agree. Interesting take he has on it.

I think, however, that the moneyline question is not NBA specific even though the question is worded that way.

DavidMatthews · Feb 8, 2004

ooops... I lose I guess.

Fishhead · Feb 8, 2004

The Fezzik answer is EXACTLY the right answer I was looking for.

He wins the chicken dinner.

ps- Not surprising that many offshore bookmakers, probably a majority, wouldnt know this answer.

One of the ways Pinny makes money that the average Joe gives no thought to.

bryan305 · Feb 8, 2004

to fezzik

stjgobraves39 · Feb 8, 2004

Someone give Fezzik a cigar

trytrytry · Feb 8, 2004

how do you define betting with an extra 1/2 point in your favor? What is the consensus line? how do you insure that its a real 1/2 point in your favor?

I bet NBA at -105 now I ned to find 1/2 points in my favor. HELP!!