Do you still make the play if the line has already moved against you?

RxScorekeeper · Feb 4, 2004

You see a play you like, you log on to your Sportsbook acct. only to see the damn line just went against you a whole point...

This happened to me last night, I decided to pass and the team which was still getting 6 wins outright anyway...

I`m so paranoid of line shopping now I don`t want to play the game if its moved against me...anyone else feel this way?

NickDouglas · Feb 4, 2004

You made the right move. It is nearly impossible to make money long term if you bet lines after they have moved against you. This time it worked against you but if you are consistent with only betting good lines, then over time it will save you money.

wilheim · Feb 4, 2004

I have to agree with Nick D. Once you handicap a game at a certain number it is bad strategy to lay or take a worse number. The term "missed the number" is an old one, but still frequently used among sharp bettors. Last night you missed the number and did the right thing, in the long run you will be better off. imho.

wil.

DarrylParsons · Feb 4, 2004

If the move is at all books I may stay away but if it is at Pinnacle, say, I might take it as a sign that I'm making a good bet so I'll do it anyway.

ellenwisdom · Feb 4, 2004

if it moves on to a loserI will notbet but if it moves on to a push I will bet

TheGeneral+ · Feb 4, 2004

Good post Jman. I try to never bet the bad number. In a related scenario last night, the totals on the Seattle & Indiana games moved so fast, I went against the moves and caught a couple wins.

wilheim · Feb 4, 2004

A good example was the Warriors-Mavericks total last night. At Pinnacle and elsewhere it went from 206 to 207 in less than an hour. Once you made the decision to bet the game over 206, (which was a popular play in the NBA forum) you had to decide if the bet was still of any value over the 207. In this case taking a pass because you missed the number saved cappers money. The game fell 200.

wil.

basesAREloaded · Feb 4, 2004

More often than not, when a line moves against you, you are a winner. I find that in 60-70 %.

I say late steam is wrong more than right.

SubZaero · Feb 4, 2004

My advice is handicap the game yourself, come up with your own number and if you see value on the line they have (even if they have moved it already) go aheahd and bet it, but never, ever against your own line..imo

PanchoSanza · Feb 4, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by basesAREloaded:
More often than not, when a line moves against you, you are a winner. I find that in 60-70 %.

I say late steam is wrong more than right.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Put down the screech bro.

SSI · Feb 4, 2004

jman, i spend about 1 hour each day just capping games, some are weeded out quickly and others i spend time doing research on. I come up with a number and then compare it to the line, i will almost always play it -- even if it moves 1pt against me, if my value is still there.. I have won far more doing this.. Usually for me, if it moves against me then the original bet was also a loser as in the example of dal/gst over 206 last night,, it moved from 206 to 207 and as you can see it was a loser either way.. If im pissed then i may buy the hook.. I cant stand being right in my process and have put in the time and then let a book scare me out of my play.. Ive been at this since the fall of 86 so i am not a rookie..

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2004

Lot of smart cookies around here.....or they are finally starting to employ what I preach.

There are certain cases where I may indeed do it, cases where the maybe the line moved only a half point on a very UNlive number or such, but by in large try to never take the worst of it.

This seldom comes about anyways, because 90% of my wagers are against late moves anyway.

In the long run, you will save yourself tons of cash employing this strategy.

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2004

If your a VERY good handicapper such as SSI that makes solid numbers, you can extend your leash a tad.

SSI is a true professional though, and like I said, you better be a damn good handicapper and have basis for your numbers to win more than you will lose if your going to attempt this.

Remember, every half point against you lowers your win percentage based on what chances the number has of falling.

TheGeneral+ · Feb 4, 2004

I have been impressed with SSI's thinking for a long time. I usually listen when he posts.

Thanks buddy.

SSI · Feb 4, 2004

fish is right, if your an average joe dont go against the number.. this actually doesnt come into play very often with me, as i usually bet earlier in the day and then simply go with it (if i like the play). i am not a screen watcher, i pit my number against theirs.. i make the play and move on, most times i dont know if its moved against me or not.. if its that darn close then its too close to be a play for me anyway.. big card tonight, who do you like fish..

acw · Feb 4, 2004

In the old days on the horses in England probably the best paddock specialist in the world that I know whenever he liked a horse at lets say 8/1 and asked me to put a bet on for him in the genre of 20000 pounds to 2500, then whenever I was late and it shortened to 7/1, often he then still wanted to win 20000, so wanted 2800 on, which is MORE than before the move.
Betting on the horses in Hong Kong I can also remember certain situations in which betting more on a quote that just shortened, was a good thing.

All of this has to do with the fact that one simply has to respect the betting public.

MeyerLansky · Feb 4, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Rx Scorekeeper:
You see a play you like, you log on to your Sportsbook acct. only to see the damn line just went against you a whole point...

This happened to me last night, I decided to pass and the team which was still getting 6 wins outright anyway...

I`m so paranoid of line shopping now I don`t want to play the game if its moved against me...anyone else feel this way?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I hate to admit, but yes, if i love something and I miss it because i was on the shitter I buy to the # i missed. Most professional gamblers will now, however.

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2004

98% of the time it is not statistically prudent to pay 10 cents for a half point in the NBA.

NOT WORTH IT!!

PLAIN AND SIMPLE!!

Muddy · Feb 4, 2004

According to my 13 year ncaabb database, for all the favs that moved one point, for example the line moved from -3 to -4, if you bet the closing line your ats record would be:
1999-2025-108 49.68%

if you bet the opening line your record would be 2183-1857-92 54%