What do you think of the following 6Pts Teaser @ EV for the SuperBowl game?

WalkofLife · Jan 31, 2004

6Pts Teaser @ EV

Car/NE Over 31.5
Pats -1

I'd rather get the ½ point on the total than a ½ point on the Pats. It seems like the wise play is on the under, actually it seems to be heavy on most places as it's moving further down (just guessing). I'm fading that Under and helping it a little with a 6Pts buy. Will the total hit 37?

I know most of you guys hate teasers and I would love to hear the reasons to re-affirm this. I'd love to hear the mathematical approach on the probabilities of each number and their estatistic co-relation and the way it affects the actual payoff of the play.

Thanks guys

P.S.: Fishhead, Wilheim and Fezzik; I'd love to hear your opinion. I know this a a play for the fun of gambling.

peteep · Jan 31, 2004

I personally think there is way more value in Carolina +13 teased with the under 43.5.

tuleythetout · Jan 31, 2004

I think they're equal

WalkofLife · Jan 31, 2004

Peteep; that's just a matter of opinions, my man. Thanks for the post.

Tuley;

Are u laughing at both of us? Or just at me? This is pure gambling and I know it. I guess I'd love to gamble on this game, yet I'm usually overly cautious.

Fishhead · Jan 31, 2004

Walk-

Observations:

1. 6 pt 2-team teaser EVEN money are advantage teasers when applied properly. No problem there.

2. Teasing the -7 to a -1 is ok.

3. I do not tease totals, so I cannot give you an accurate assumption on that without doing some number crunching....sorry.

4. Have to give some thought to being a Superbowl and not a regular season game.

5. I would tend to believe you have a most certainly correlated teaser going with the FAV and OVER in this contest and can only see that as positive advantage.

Conclusion: Admitting to not knowing EXACTLY if this is a win or not, off the top of my head I would say it is probably breakeven at WORST!!

Hope you win it if you play it!!

WalkofLife · Jan 31, 2004

Thanks a whole bunch, Fish. I appreciate your comments. Our trains of thought seem to coincide.

Does anybody have access to the stats on a game like this falling right on 37?

I'd appreciate your answers, guys.

wilheim · Jan 31, 2004

Walk - first off - Best of Luck with the play.

As far the teaser goes I think based on Super Bowl histroy the over is definitely the way to go. You have to go back to 1975 to find a SB that ended with less than 28 total points. Natrually that does not automatically make over 31.5 a winner but over clearly is the way to play a SB total teaser.

Now the real dilemma; is -1 better than +13. Well that very much depends on who you like to win the game. I assume a push and a win is no bet in this case. So the -1 can't beat you. If it can beat you then are really laying 1.5. Anyway you are only asking the Pats to win on the field by any score, and as you know to me this is critical, any scenario where the Pats win the game will cover that side of the teaser. Looking long and hard at this game I have come to the conclusion that a win by the Pats by any score is much more apt to happen than a win by the Panthers by any score (which is what needs to happen for you to lose). So for FWIW. I LOVE this bet as a fun of gambling play. Would I bet mortgage money on it, no. Would I risk the cash I had saved up to buy my better half a Valentine Day gift on it, certainly. Go for it.

wil.

dimeplayersonly · Jan 31, 2004

I'LL BOOK DAT SH*T ALL DAY LONG......

WalkofLife · Jan 31, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Would I bet mortgage money on it, no. Would I risk the cash I had saved up to buy my better half a Valentine Day gift on it, certainly. Go for it. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

LMFAO!!!

Thanks Wil... this is just one of those plays that I like to have just for the mere fun of sweating the game... the thrill of gambling. 1 unit to the sweat factory...

Thanks again and good luck tomorrow.

DPO:
Gimme the Pats -6.5 and the Cats +7.5 and I'll give you 10K worth of action on each side...

. Do I hear "reduced juice"?

dimeplayersonly · Jan 31, 2004

WALK..........I think FISHEAD expressed interest in dealing the game two ways

panthers +7'
pats -6'

with no juice........

WalkofLife · Jan 31, 2004

Can I get an AMEN?

LMFAO!!!

Drag'um dicks on the dirt, blood.

mvbski · Jan 31, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> Does anybody have access to the stats on a game like this falling right on 37? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>dont have the exact numbers but I know its gotta be one of the top three numbers for totals if I remember correctly, where is D2 when we need him

D2bets · Jan 31, 2004

No stats for ya, but 37 is definitely a key total as it's 4 TD's and 3 FG'S. It's also an odd number so it correlates with a 3-pt margin (20-17), the final score of the Pats' last SB win. 38 is big too as it's 5 TD's and 1 FG. I'd hunt for 38.5 if I wanted the under and no more than 37.0 on the over. I'd probably try to middle 36.5/38.5 if available.

mvbski · Jan 31, 2004

this D2 guy is a wiz

WalkofLife · Jan 31, 2004

D2bets;

Thanks for the input, man. Always appreciated.

Voodoo · Jan 31, 2004

Landing on 37 is a 1 in 20 shot.
5% of NFL games land 37.

tuleythetout · Jan 31, 2004

Voodoo...that sounds right. I think that's why D2Bets said he would need to have 36.5/38.5 to shoot for a middle. 37 is the most common total, but need 38 to make it profitable in long run.

Walk of Life:
I guess I was making fun of both of you, but probably not in the way you think. I was really just trying to make a point that the whole "tease" of teasers is that no matter which way you go it looks like a sure thing (and thus that's why I joked that they're equal). Pats -1/over 31.5...how can that miss, right? Panthers +13/under 43.5 looks imminently hittable, too. As does Pats -1/under 43.5, and Panthers +13/over 31.5. And, in truth, with the equivalent of a 12-point middle on both side and total, it's possible for everyone who makes an argument for any of those to be correct.

But, for the record...I'm with you. My published plays are on the Pats (also a live play at -6.5 -105) and the over 38 in the Racing Form, so I think your Pats/over teaser is easily the most likely.

Good luck

DarrylParsons · Feb 1, 2004

An even money teaser is a 2-team parlay in which you are getting odds of sqrt(2) on each play, expressed in the European system. In the American system it's -100*(1+sqrt(2)), or about -241.

Seeing as you can get -250 for NE to win (IIS), you are selling the half point for a paltry price.

For the total you just need to compute the probability that it will land on 32,33,34,35,36, or 37. If it is less than 19.5% then you are better off taking the straight over at -105.

The total seems like a decent play but the side is a bit pricey imo. Overall: not bad, but nothing exceptional.

Fishhead · Feb 1, 2004

Tuley-

You DO NOT need the 38 with any kind of reduced vig whatsoever.

Laying 36.5 and taking 37.5 is basically a breakeven situation laying -110 on both sides.

Understand what your saying though in having the 38 work for you........the more numbers the merrier.

However, significant reduced juice can be even more valuable and much easier to find through shopping.

WalkofLife · Feb 1, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>An even money teaser is a 2-team parlay in which you are getting odds of sqrt(2) on each play, expressed in the European system. In the American system it's -100*(1+sqrt(2)), or about -241.

Seeing as you can get -250 for NE to win (IIS), you are selling the half point for a paltry price.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thanks Daryl...I was leery of doing the numbers, but last nite I finally got myself to do it (turned out to take 30 seconds)

, so your post comes as a confirmation. This play is just a gamble, nothing more than that... just as Wilheim said... this play is worth one pound of Godiva chocolates.

Thanks for the info, Voodoo. It's appreciated.

Tuley;

I'm of the opinion that the Pats will win and cover. This teaser is just a play for the love of sweating it a little bit less.

Thanks guys.