A stat that favors the Super Bowl Favorite (makes sense too)

Journeyman · Jan 30, 2004

9 times the Super Bowl has been played where the teams have had a two week rest between games

The favorite has only failed to cover twice!

The logic being the stronger team with two weeks to prepare has an even stronger advantage

We all know what Belichek is cabable of when given time to master plan

Strength of schedule clearly with New England as well....

This just might get ugly...

37-10 Pats

Dante · Jan 30, 2004

Not sure it will be that big but my square AZZ thinks pats cover the 7 20-10 pats

Fezzik · Jan 30, 2004

Belichick had 9 months to gameplan for Buffalo week 1.

Call me stupid, but shouldn't LESS time give the coaching genius the edge? I mean if they only had 72 hours, wouldn't that also favor the genius?

Carolina's playing its 3rd straight road game. No big deal, but ONLY because they have the week of rest.

Journeyman · Jan 30, 2004

yeah comparing the opening day game to the Super Bowl,lol...okay

we can argue both teams case all day Fezzik, and make both sound good,lol...

why do you suppose most favorites have covered so easily with the extra week then? Perhaps its just a coincidence...Sorry I threw it out there...

RobFunk · Jan 30, 2004

"The logic being the stronger team with two weeks to prepare has an even stronger advantage"

the problem here is that it's debatable who has the stronger team. i watched 'cold pizza' today and one of the NFL experts argued that player for player carolina has more offensive talent even if brady is a little bit better. then you look at maxwells article and he contends that Carolina has the edge on the lines for both defense and offense. (ive also heard this argued by top local writer for the globe Mike Holley)

so yea, apply that logic and it does in fact make sense. but be sure who the 'better team' is. the line is only pats -7 becuase as the line manager for the star dust stated 'we set it at 7, because we had a concern for the public reaction to new england based on their current win streak'. that tells me even stardust kind of thinks carolina is the better team.

Journeyman · Jan 30, 2004

just an opinion...I thought the stat was worth mentioning thats all...

jimbutorac · Jan 30, 2004

JMan,

I haven't seen that stat before but I think it's gonna be a blowout for Pats , too.

First reason is that the 2 week Super Bowls I think are more likely to be blowouts cause pressure just keeps building longer. It seems the two week games - one team gets down and then it just keeps pressing and makes it worse.

Plus Bill Simmons has a real good article in ESPN Page 2 today talking about how in years past when you've had a lower seed (panthers) from an inferior conference (nfc) playing 1 or 2 seed (pats) from a superior conference (afc) that it's a blowout. He cited a bunch of examples like Broncos - Falcons, Ravens - Giants and a bunch more.

jimbutorac · Jan 30, 2004

Just to clarify - I don't think the Pats are that much more of a superior team. If they held Pats - Panthers on a regular week during regular season I think it would be a close game.

To me it's more about the pressure buidup of a 2 week Super Bowl.

WildBill · Jan 30, 2004

The favorite covers often because that is the nature of playoff football. A championship team doesn't let up and doesn't give another team a chance to get back into the game once they have truly shut the door. It is very rare to see a big comeback in a later round playoff game because of this, but with parity being what it is I don't know if today's game can be effectively analyzed using the thought process of years past.

This Pats team gets awfully conservative with the lead and they haven't really lived up to this billing, especially the Indy game wehre they shouldn't have even had to worry about the result at the end of the game if they had just taken care of business with TDs instead of FGs. I don't think Carolina is a good team coming from behind though so I can see how if the Pats build up a little bit of a lead they can pour it on.

Journeyman · Jan 30, 2004

Also- the team favored in these two week before game situations has NEVER LOST THE SUPER BOWL... (9-0)

FWIW Jman

oldmantime · Jan 30, 2004

I've got one more stat for the stat keepers.

Carolina has NEVER lost a Superbowl. I think New England is maybe 50% in them.

That's why figures can lie and liars figure.

tuleythetout · Jan 30, 2004

Patriots are 33%

Got blown out by 36 by Da Bears
Lost by 14 to the Packers (but got a push)
Beat Rams by 3

So, they're 1-2...but 1-1-1 vs. spread

oldmantime · Jan 31, 2004

Right Tuley--forgot about the Green Bay game.

I don't know who'll win, but I do not see either side getting blown out by more than 14.

A stat that favors the Super Bowl Favorite (makes sense too)

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