All day long we've been discussing that the point spread on NE is too high because of the squares betting the Fav, i think this just confirms it, they won't make the same mistake they did on SB XXXVI, putting a big ML on the dog, they're taking their chances on the spread but won't give anything away on the ML.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SubZaero:
All day long we've been discussing that the point spread on NE is too high because of the squares betting the Fav, i think this just confirms it, they won't make the same mistake they did on SB XXXVI, putting a big ML on the dog, they're taking their chances on the spread but won't give anything away on the ML.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
sounds fairly reasonable.
All day long we've been discussing that the point spread on NE is too high because of the squares betting the Fav, i think this just confirms it, they won't make the same mistake they did on SB XXXVI, putting a big ML on the dog, they're taking their chances on the spread but won't give anything away on the ML.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
sounds fairly reasonable.
I'm no football expert but I assume there are some higher EV plays in which injuries are a risk (like qb rushes) which a team could try if they are behind. In any other game they would not try these because they need the players for the next game. Here they have 8 months to recover. Not sure if this is significant but it could be. In any case it would tend to reduce the price of the dog. Can anyone tell me if there is something to this theory?
This happens every year. The ML will probably go off with NE -190 or something like that in Vegas. Not sure about offshore, but Vegas is overrun by people that bet the favorite on the spread and the dog on the money line. If the game ends up being a close win for the Pats the house will clean up. The Rams win a few years back was a bonanza too as many people pushed on the Rams, but lost on the Titans on the ML. When the favorite covers or the dog wins outright Vegas doesn't do as well, but they could have a bonanza this year if the Pats win by a FG.
The squares do bet the favorite more than not, but those that are inclined to bet the dog will usually get swayed by those odds and overbet that. This is the one game where sharp action just can't match what will flow in on the game from the public so don't even try to read any line moves or setups as moves by sharps, they will just be pure floods of public action.
The squares do bet the favorite more than not, but those that are inclined to bet the dog will usually get swayed by those odds and overbet that. This is the one game where sharp action just can't match what will flow in on the game from the public so don't even try to read any line moves or setups as moves by sharps, they will just be pure floods of public action.
