Need Expert Advice on a Futures Hedge/Middle !!!

foge · Jan 15, 2004

Thanks in advance. I need top-knotch help for a great friend of mine who is NOT a regular player.
He bet 1000 on N.E. last summer at 17/1 to win the Super Bowl.
I would like to advise him on how to take advantage of his situation, particularly with N.E. being a fav this week by 3+ AND a certain fav next week if they win.
I thought a 2500 bet on INDY plus the best he can get would be right, then doubling that in Super Bowl on whoever the dog is if he gets a middle, and repeating the 2500 on the dog in the superbowl if N.E. covers.
I am a rank amateur, though. Could I please get some advice from the forum to pass on?

We have interesting options INCLUDING opening a 6 point teaser pending the superbowl!

Thanks again!

royalfan · Jan 15, 2004

One really simple way is to bet them not to win at pinnacle or someplace. This is the easiest way to see where you stand on it and pinnacle has very narrow lines even on these types so likely the best value. No need to get overly creative in my opinion.

lander · Jan 15, 2004

The easiest way is to straight hedge it @ Pinny ..

Sun 1/18 Will the New England Patriots win the Superbowl?
12:00 PM
339 Yes +148
340 No -162

+1700 1000/17000
-162 11,129.77/6780.23

Either way your buddy nets a cool $5870.23

Fishhead · Jan 15, 2004

I will give you an EXPERT opinion right now and you need look no further.

THE ABSOLUTE BEST THING TO DO LONGTERM IS LET IT RIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now having said that, dont know your friends financial situation, so this could be altered to his or her preference and hedge accordingly.

BUT THE BEST THING TO DO IS LET IT RIDE..........LONGTERM UNDERSTAND!!

SunDevil · Jan 15, 2004

Fish is right...and Lander is right...and the strategy you planned may also be right.

Everything depends on your friend's levels of risk aversion (Fish's advice assumes he's completely risk-neutral - which few people are) and disposable capital (under Lander's hedge your friend needs to lay out 11 dimes or more to guarantee the hedge). Many factors, but plenty of good advice here.

Rogthedodger · Jan 15, 2004

And if your friend elects to not let it ride, don't let him bet the crappy Pinnacle line. Take -155 at Oly or even better -150 at Sportbet. Although betting the "NO" is the easiest way to hedge the future, it isn't the best way mathematically. I'm holding Pats +4300 and I did the math, a per game hedge pays more........

royalfan · Jan 15, 2004

I would love to hear this explanation. It will work out better if Philly wins and worse if Carolina wins. Hard time believing you can tell us that it works out better on a per game hedge regardless.

PO69 · Jan 15, 2004

NO reason to hedge. Just let it ride

Mr.Smith · Jan 15, 2004

the value he has is the NE 17-1 ticket, which is obviously way off from the true odds now. So by hedging, he would just be cutting into his edge. If he bets 2,500 on Indy +3, that has a 50-50 chance of winning. no edge on that bet, so he'd just be weakening his strong position.

hedge as little as he must is the advice. if he can take the stress, don't hedge. if not hedge as little as he can to feel more comfortable watching the games.

jwunderdog · Jan 15, 2004

If you buddy bet a $1000 at 17-1 odds I would say he is not to risk adverse. Let it ride unless he likes there chances less now then when he placed the bet(which I seriously doubt). Tell me this if you could bet NE today at 17-1 to win the superbowl, would you bet it?

Guest · Jan 15, 2004

Foge, Don't even think about doing the "hedge" of betting "against" NE to win the Super Bowl.
That is just blowing off part of the win...

I have NE to win myself...

Last week I took the +6 with TN, winner!!
That covered my original investment and then some...
This week I took +4.5 Sunday night with Indy..
And if NE wins this week, I will be taking the plus against whoever they face in the Super Bowl...

I can not only win my Super Bowl bet but pick up three winning bets along the way too if it plays out perfect...

The ONLY other option is just to let it ride!!

LV711

Mike21 · Jan 15, 2004

A dog & dog moneyline parley might work for him.

RPM · Jan 15, 2004

i KNEW lander would be around to help this guy!~

WINNINGHAND · Jan 15, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
I will give you an EXPERT opinion right now and you need look no further.

THE ABSOLUTE BEST THING TO DO LONGTERM IS LET IT RIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now having said that, dont know your friends financial situation, so this could be altered to his or her preference and hedge accordingly.

BUT THE BEST THING TO DO IS LET IT RIDE..........LONGTERM UNDERSTAND!!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
intelligent hedging with solid value is the way to go. Locking in a victory is important, especially since he is getting such a huge payoff. Most pros would lock in something. Just my opinion.

drunkguy · Jan 15, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by jwunderdog:
If you buddy bet a $1000 at 17-1 odds I would say he is not to risk adverse. Let it ride unless he likes there chances less now then when he placed the bet(which I seriously doubt). Tell me this if you could bet NE today at 17-1 to win the superbowl, would you bet it?

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is 100% the right answer...if it was available now, would you bet it?

If you answered yes, then you should let it ride. By hedging,a ll you are doing is diluting the value of the original bet.

With that said, I think Indy wins outright this weekend...

randyrohm · Jan 15, 2004

Fish, dispite what might be the best "longterm" to do, do you like NE Sun? I would take back plenty on Indy +3 +110. Thats just because Peyton is in the Zone.

randyrohm · Jan 15, 2004

Oh yeah, you could win both

valueman · Jan 15, 2004

Lay NE at betfair - requests for +160 - simple!

Rogthedodger · Jan 16, 2004

ML for Superbowl will be a MINIMUM +180 (more like +200 by kickoff) on NFC champ. Work out the math, better payoff per game.

foge · Jan 16, 2004

THANKS TO ALL WHO RESPONDED. It's nice to feel welcome. I'll keep checking back in and passing these along!

Need Expert Advice on a Futures Hedge/Middle !!!

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