NOTRE DAME (8 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (16 - 0)
Pittsburgh -10.5
The StatFox Power Rating Estimate indicates Pittsburgh should be favored by 8 points in this game.
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring NOTRE DAME to cover the spread:
* NOTRE DAME is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ game since 1997. The average score was NOTRE DAME 67.5, OPPONENT 65.2
* NOTRE DAME is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% after over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NOTRE DAME 76.3, OPPONENT 73.2
* NOTRE DAME is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game since 1997. The average score was NOTRE DAME 74.3, OPPONENT 75.8 -
* NOTRE DAME is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in road games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NOTRE DAME 73.2, OPPONENT 75.3 -
Key Stats:
About a month ago, this wouldn't have been a sensible play but after a 2-3 start, Notre Dame has rallied for 6 straight wins and seems to be finding itself finally. The Irish have won two straight in conference play and are doing it with defense, allowing no opponent to shoot better than 45% from the floor in their last four games. Pittsburgh is 16-0 but is starting to show some signs of being beatable. Their last three defensive efforts have been below standards, and Miami became the first team to shoot 50% or better from the floor against Pitt on Saturday. Notre Dame also has played a much tougher schedule: Average power rating of opponents played: NOTRE DAME 72.3, PITTSBURGH 67.2.
Series History:
Notre Dame has played Pittsburgh well, winning five of the last seven series games.
StatFox Money Tracker:
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring NOTRE DAME in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NOTRE DAME games 70.2% of the time over the past 3 seasons (33-14).
Edge= NOTRE DAME
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MARSHALL (5 - 5) at W MICHIGAN (9 - 1)
W. Michigan -11.5
StatFox Super Situations favoring W MICHIGAN to cover the spread:
* Play On - Any team (W MICHIGAN) - a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after a win by 15 points or more. (165-99 since 1997.) (62.5%, +56.1 units. Rating = 3*)
* Play On - Any team (W MICHIGAN) - a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games. (90-45 since 1997.) (66.7%, +40.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 77-63 Western Michigan win in this game. Based upon that score estimate:
W MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home games when they allow 60 to 69 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was W MICHIGAN 78.0, OPPONENT 64.3
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring W MICHIGAN to cover the spread:
* MARSHALL is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) after a close loss by 3 points or less since 1997. The average score was MARSHALL 72.3, OPPONENT 77.4 - (Rating = 3*)
* W MICHIGAN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games since 1997. The average score was W MICHIGAN 76.1, OPPONENT 70.7 - (Rating = 1*)
* W MICHIGAN is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) as a favorite this season. The average score was W MICHIGAN 79.1, OPPONENT 61.6 - (Rating = 0*)
Key Stats:
W Michigan is 9-1 overall & 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 21 ppg at home. The Broncos have won eight games in a row and are 7-1 ATS in that span. The difference in situational points allowed in this game is staggering: Marshall allows 78 ppg on the road, WMU allows 57 ppg at home.
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Pittsburgh -10.5
The StatFox Power Rating Estimate indicates Pittsburgh should be favored by 8 points in this game.
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring NOTRE DAME to cover the spread:
* NOTRE DAME is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ game since 1997. The average score was NOTRE DAME 67.5, OPPONENT 65.2
* NOTRE DAME is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% after over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NOTRE DAME 76.3, OPPONENT 73.2
* NOTRE DAME is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game since 1997. The average score was NOTRE DAME 74.3, OPPONENT 75.8 -
* NOTRE DAME is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in road games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NOTRE DAME 73.2, OPPONENT 75.3 -
Key Stats:
About a month ago, this wouldn't have been a sensible play but after a 2-3 start, Notre Dame has rallied for 6 straight wins and seems to be finding itself finally. The Irish have won two straight in conference play and are doing it with defense, allowing no opponent to shoot better than 45% from the floor in their last four games. Pittsburgh is 16-0 but is starting to show some signs of being beatable. Their last three defensive efforts have been below standards, and Miami became the first team to shoot 50% or better from the floor against Pitt on Saturday. Notre Dame also has played a much tougher schedule: Average power rating of opponents played: NOTRE DAME 72.3, PITTSBURGH 67.2.
Series History:
Notre Dame has played Pittsburgh well, winning five of the last seven series games.
StatFox Money Tracker:
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring NOTRE DAME in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NOTRE DAME games 70.2% of the time over the past 3 seasons (33-14).
Edge= NOTRE DAME
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MARSHALL (5 - 5) at W MICHIGAN (9 - 1)
W. Michigan -11.5
StatFox Super Situations favoring W MICHIGAN to cover the spread:
* Play On - Any team (W MICHIGAN) - a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after a win by 15 points or more. (165-99 since 1997.) (62.5%, +56.1 units. Rating = 3*)
* Play On - Any team (W MICHIGAN) - a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games. (90-45 since 1997.) (66.7%, +40.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 77-63 Western Michigan win in this game. Based upon that score estimate:
W MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home games when they allow 60 to 69 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was W MICHIGAN 78.0, OPPONENT 64.3
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring W MICHIGAN to cover the spread:
* MARSHALL is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) after a close loss by 3 points or less since 1997. The average score was MARSHALL 72.3, OPPONENT 77.4 - (Rating = 3*)
* W MICHIGAN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games since 1997. The average score was W MICHIGAN 76.1, OPPONENT 70.7 - (Rating = 1*)
* W MICHIGAN is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) as a favorite this season. The average score was W MICHIGAN 79.1, OPPONENT 61.6 - (Rating = 0*)
Key Stats:
W Michigan is 9-1 overall & 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 21 ppg at home. The Broncos have won eight games in a row and are 7-1 ATS in that span. The difference in situational points allowed in this game is staggering: Marshall allows 78 ppg on the road, WMU allows 57 ppg at home.
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