Money Management - Middle To Advanced Level

Decided to write this thread as there seems to be a significant interest in this subject and it can be used as a supplement to the thread started by augs15 which addresses the beginner or lower level player. The intention is to provide thoughts as a player advances with experience. So with that in mind let me begin.

To start, I am going to provide the readers with a sample of a complete football season from preseason through the superbowl. The intention is to show that even with a modest win percentage, one can end up with a significant overall return on their starting bankroll without making an exceptionally large wager. So let's begin.

We will start with the bankroll. For simplicity, I will assume that posters make an assignment that 1 unit equals $100. The 1 unit should equal 1% of the bankroll. Therefore, a player at this level should be starting with a bankroll of $10,000. My example will use these as the basis. I will also use a varying wagering style wherein a player will rate his wagers from 1 to 5 units or 1% to 5% respectively. Futhermore, the amount of the wager will vary as the bankroll varies. Thus, as it increases, so does the wager and as it decreases so does the wager but with one guideline. The unit value stays constant until the bankroll increases or decreases in 20% increments. Thus, 1 unit remains at $100 until the bankroll reaches $12,000 or $8,000. This allows for a period of relatively consistent levels for a longer period of time until the bankroll is significantly changed either up or down.

Now that these parameters are in place, let me show you the results of my entire 2002 football season. You will note that I achieved an overall 94.10% return while only winning 55.15% of my wagers, which is an average season and not particularly outstanding, but very much within the capabilities of a decent handicapper. So here it is beginning with the entire year summary followed by individual sub-seasons that make up the total season.

2002 Football Season Summary

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$9,410
Overall W/L Record: 369-300-14
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 55.15%
Overall Unit Record: 711.5-564.5
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 55.76%
5 Unit Plays: 6-1
4 Unit Plays: 32-26-1
3.5 Unit Plays: 7-10
3 Unit Plays: 72-53-1
2.5 Unit Plays: 5-2
2 Unit Plays: 45-36
1.5 Unit Plays: 17-25-4
1 Unit Plays: 185-147-8

NFL Preseason

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$450
Overall W/L Record: 28-22
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 56.00%
Overall Unit Record: 57-46.5
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 55.07%
4 Unit Plays: 4-2
3.5 Unit Plays: 1-1
3 Unit Plays: 6-7
2 Unit Plays: 2-2
1.5 Unit Plays: 1-0
1 Unit Plays: 14-10

College Regular Season

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$3142
Overall W/L Record: 218-193-8
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 53.04%
Overall Unit Record: 421-357
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 54.11%
5 Unit Plays: 3-1
4 Unit Plays: 28-19-1
3 Unit Plays: 33-30
2.5 Unit Plays: 5-2
2 Unit Plays: 27-29
1.5 Unit Plays: 13-22-3
1 Unit Plays: 109-90-4

Ran out of space. Please don't comment yet as I am continuing.

Continuing on with the seasons:

College Bowl Season

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$720
Overall W/L Record: 20-16-1
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 55.55%
Overall Unit Record: 38-28
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 57.58%
5 Unit Plays: 1-0
4 Unit Plays: 0-2
3 Unit Plays: 6-3
2 Unit Plays: 2-0
1 Unit Plays: 11-11-1

NFL Regular Season

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$5354
Overall W/L Record: 95-60-4
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 61.29%
Overall Unit Record: 176.5-113.5
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 60.86%
5 Unit Plays: 1-0
4 Unit Plays: 0-3
3.5 Unit Plays: 6-8
3 Unit Plays: 24-9-1
2 Unit Plays: 13-5
1.5 Unit Plays: 3-3-1
1 Unit Plays: 48-32-2

NFL Post Season

Overall Bankroll Profit: -$256
Overall W/L Record: 8-9-1
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 47.05%
Overall Unit Record: 19-19.5-1
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 49.35%
5 Unit Plays: 1-0
3.5 Unit Plays: 0-1
3 Unit Plays: 3-4
2 Unit Plays: 1-0
1 Unit Plays: 3-4-1

Since I don't know how much space is available, I will close by saying I hope this helps show that one can make a healthy return without having to win an extraordinary percentage or wager in large amounts.

Started this thread in a effort to provide information. Please share your own ideas about middle to advanced level money management.

This is exactly how I money manage apart from two refinements.

1 - I use a system of pricing up each event and using the difference between my percieved odds and odds available to determine the percentage of bankroll to be staked.

2 - I use a grade of race factor to multiply the stake eg Grade A = 1.75, Grade B = 1.5, Grade C = 1.25, Grade D = 1.0 Grade E and Below 0.75. This is just from analysing previous years results and concluding I do better in better quality races.

It's uncanny that oldman & I assume the same bankroll until it has gone up 20%.

thanks for the write up...just to re-iterate how importnat management is...I gave back a weeks work of grinfing out profits today in 1 day...This is what happens when one loses discipline...

Savant

Exactly. Discipline is key. Selecting winning plays is tough enough. We must manage our money with intense discipline in order to stay in this business over the long haul. Keep grinding out those profits and they will slowly add up. Look at the long view not just today's play.

Thanks Ted! Its well written and easy to understand. Happy Holidays

Gary

Thanks for the input TED. You clearly keep excellent records and are a disciplined player.

I've drawn a conclusion from my own records and it seems to be confirmed by yours. When reviewing full season records (not counting small samples such as pre-seasons and post seasons), the overall unit record percentage is very close to the same or even lower than the overall win/loss record percentage.
I have concluded from this that varying bet sizes are, at the least not productive, and possibly even detrimental to the overall results.
Can you confirm this conclusion? Tell me if I'm wrong.

Thanks for sharing Ted.

What I tell anybody that wants to succeed in this business, is to keep accurate records.

Bookkeeping is ONE OF THE major parts of the successful gamblers attributes.

excellent work ted, and far better record keeping than my own, however i own a convenience store as well and know the value of record keeping..

my only difference is that i flat bet roughly 1% of my bankroll on each selection approximately 85% of the time, then simply raise the flat bet,,, it seemed i kept getting burned on the bigger plays (over and over again), this shows that one must learn themselves, i am good over a season, maybe not just on one selection.. as in, i may not be that good in a game of the day kind of thing,, i have learned that i am a "grind em out type". look at my record over 150 plays and not just 10 type of thing..

however we both value - protecting our bankroll.

Hanover00

My records confirm as well that at the end of a season the Overall Unit Record Percentage is within 1%-3% of the Overall W/L Record Percentage, but please understand that by varying the wager there is a big difference in the number of units won if one is successful and it is the units won that increase your dollars, not the percentage.

Using the example I provided and just taking a look at the Summary, if we used a flat wager and the W/L record, the result would be 369 minus 300 for a total of 69 units minus the vig which is significant with 300 losses. If we use a varying wager and the Unit record, the result would be 711.5 minus 564.5 for a total of 147 units minus the vig. Thus, you can see the significant difference this makes in the overall bankroll and particularly throughout the season as it steadily grows and thus the wager along with it. With a flat wager, the bankroll will grow, but the amount of return due to the total number of units won being less, will not be nearly as good at seasons end.

Of course, it must be said that when varying one's wager, discipline is extremely important. The bankroll must be protected from a desire to either get rich quickly or trying to make up for a loss by chasing or doubling up.

I hope this helps answer your question.

SSI

There is absolutely nothing wrong with flat betting. It is the varying bet than can be one's downfall. The player must know his inner tendencies to fully recognize when and when not to increase. If you are finding that when you raise your unit level and are seemingly unsuccessful at picking the right time to do so, then by all means stick with the flat wager and increase the wager as the bankroll increases.

Flat betting has one very significant upside. It is not as stressful and therefore does not wear on you as much. You need only handicap and select winners and then check your current bankroll and make your play. That lower stress level allows you to remain mentally clear and the result is more winning plays. Varying the bankroll can effect the players emotional state which, in turn, results in bad choices on selections as well as the level of the wager.

It is very important that a player know himself and use a money management system for which he is comfortable. The most important thing is to have a system and use it consistently.

your bigger unit selections must still hit at a higher percentage, just so happened yours did.. mine on the other hand tend not to.. ive seen alot of guys go belly up by losing $500 plays and winning the $100... i take the adage either bet it the same or its not worth the bet,, about 85% of the time, sure there are times when i make a few bigger plays but i dont stray too far from my basic strategy.. nice conversation ted, im not knocking anything you say,,,, im merely saying one must find what works for themselves, flat betting keeps me from chasing, if i dropped a $500 bet then i may be tempted to chase it with a dime bet.. it makes me sick to win 3 $100 bets and lose my 1 $500 bet.. know what i mean..

these arguments in the forum, not just in this thread but all the time, for varying wagers. My only question is, how can you *KNOW* that your higher wager is going to succeed, any more than a lower one will? Your handicapping has to somehow have a fine-tuned rating system that allows you to see opportunities that are more likely than others to hit. I question whether anyone who caps can really pull that off consistently.

oldmanTED, thanks for the further comment. It's clearer to me now.

Let me throw this out there, though:
Since your winning % for increased unit bet games is statistically similar to the winning % of flat bet games, the reason you make more money on the increased unit bet games is simply because you bet more units on those games. You don't win more of the games. If you agree with this assessment then I will cary it on here.

Why increase risk in certain games if your results don't show increased winning % in those games. Simply increase your bet level for ALL games on a flat basis because your records show that you pick winners at a good clip consistently but they don't show that you pick the higher unit bets any better. This way you will increase the number of units that you win overall without increasing the risk that you take on a minority of the bets.

BTW, if bankroll is limited, I'd be glad to stake you for a return on onvestment.

SSI & Ted;
Great post...I am probably the worst in money management. I tend to play low trying to save up for a grand slam(which I am not good at)and end up losing most of the bank roll....only to wait for Friday to try all over again. My problem is that I have had litle success in my betting habits which in turn gives me a false sense of security or hope that i can hit one when I really need to.

Skyweasel:

It was not my intention to push the concept of varying ones wager on everyone. In fact note my response back to SSI. The most important thing is to have a money management system that works for you and stick consistently with it. While it is true that one can never truly know if a higher wager is going to be a winning wager, I am certain that there are times that each of us have a particular game so visually sound in our mind that we have a stronger opinion on this game than the average daily game. It is these games that warrant considering an increase in level. It doesn't mean that one will win the game, because anything can happen on the field, court, rink, or diamond. But, one can be successful if they are patient and disciplined in finding the time to increase. It takes a great deal of experience but it can be done.

Guys this was my point all along, you must be able to hit the higher unit games, if not then they wipe you out.. with that being said, whats the need to even bother with the lower unit games, they turn into Leans for some people and we could get into betting the board,, there must be a specific handicapping process that makes one game that much more important than other games.. I have yet to find it in 17yrs..

However, i harken back to One must do what works for them successfully.. For me its handicapping the games, flat betting them and raise the flat bet rate as Bankroll grows, its far less exciting and quite boring at times, thats why its called a grind.. In flat betting i will say this, one needs to pick 58-60% winners and a lot cannot do this.. Ill use this as an example, bet 100 games at $200 per game, go 60-40 and you clear $3200.. most cannot do this..

I look at plays in a series of bets, say every 150 plays.. thats why i keep saying and there are guys here that do this... Do Not Get too excited over winning days or too down over losing ones..

ted, is correct in saying,, it takes time, experience and a bankroll to succeed in his concept.. He obviously can, and i believe the poster All Star and Atx may be good at this, i believe superscout was successful in this strategy.. Like he said, do what works for you. I just kick myself hard when i lose a $500 play after winning 3 straight $100 plays.. for me thats the worse feeling and ive got friends that do that time after time, and they pay week after week..

Maxdemo

First, it is good that you already recognize where you are making your mistakes in money management.

In your particular situation, consider stepping back and look at the long view. This is a tough business. Flat wagering may be best for you at this time. Concentrate on handicapping first, then make the flat wager based on the percentage of your bankroll. If you haven't established a bankroll, you need to do so. Using a 1% flat wager is solid. Just don't look ahead too far and try to win it all at once. That will break you both emotionally and financially. Hang in there. Cap then wager.