steamed o/u in the nba.......

Moon88 · Jan 7, 2004

I'm not an expert nor am I a linemaker, but following steam on nba totals "seem" to be a winning prop for players even if you play when the steam has stoped moving. The question I have is why do books seem to have these weak #'s on nba totals? The movers of the line "sharps" are they sharper then the linemakers? It has to be a concern for books even though people may mention that there isn't large amounts of money played on o/u in the nba. Take for instance 200 people read this thread and then say hey let me try these type of plays and their avg play is $500.....some people might ? why I care....the reason is I have I question that I can't answer so I ask it here. THANKS GUYS, GIRLS AND BOOKS!

DarrylParsons · Jan 7, 2004

I think we are just experiencing a big random fluctuation here. Take a look at the performance of the wagerline consensus in NBA for the past 3 years...note that they are doing amazingly well this year on O/U but that over 3 years they are close to 50-50...

http://www.wagerline.com/showprofile.asp?Member=Wagerline%5FConsensus&Sport=NBA

I plan on fading the O/U consensus until it gets back to under 52% or so since a lot of people will be following the steam and so the numbers will be a bit off by game time. Remember the linesmakers are a step ahead of the bettors and hang their numbers accordingly.