Would this turn a profit?

Journeyman · Jan 5, 2004

Each day you select two plays,plays A & B your best two games each day...

Now when you call to make your wager, you instruct that you only want to make ONE wager and that is if the first game LOSES, (I am not even sure you can make an 'if' bet off a game you have not even wagered on)

But for the sake of the conversation lets say you can...So team A (the team you liked but did not play) LOSES.... Then and only then you WAGER on the second game and team B...The only way you are wagering each day is IF YOUR FIRST (would be) BET LOST....
Now I know some say each games outcome has nothing to do with the next, but if we take out a loss before we wager , won`t that increase our winning pct?

Why won`t this work?

MudSlideSlim · Jan 5, 2004

Tekari · Jan 5, 2004

You are not making any profit off the first pick. Say your first pick wins 53% of the time, you are making no money and not even placing a wager for that day. The better your first selection is, the less days you are even placing a bet. Really all you would be doing is losing out on the winners, and when your first bet loses you place a wager.

Really all this is is placing less bets.

Journeyman · Jan 5, 2004

Yeah....I thought about that first bet winning factr,lol...Let me modify it then....

First bet of the day still not actually bet, whether it wins or loses GO OPPOSITE of what you would have played...Another words ....

We have NY +7 @ Phi (NY being the play)
and Clippers + 9 @ Indiana (Clips being the play)

NY covers, so instead of taking LAC we take Indiana -9....This based on 50% and going opposite would have to win more than lose...

I will do a test run and see if it works ..

MudSlideSlim · Jan 5, 2004

still a no

Journeyman · Jan 5, 2004

Test game 1 (Play on Mia+4.5)

Real Bet 110/100 ( Golden St. +7.5)

*If Miami loses the play is on Hou-7.5*

0-0

MudSlideSlim · Jan 5, 2004

here's why this wont work

#1 you came up with it

#2 there is no 'system' to turn a string of neg expectation events (-110) into a pos outcome

Journeyman · Jan 5, 2004

You do not know this for sure! If each game is 50/50 and you are throwing out the first loss how can this not turn out positive?

If this were to be done over 1000 games you don t think it would be positive? You could even flip a coin really...Thanks for the wisdom!

MudSlideSlim · Jan 5, 2004

assuming 50/50 which they arent because of vig. the 1st gm plays no determining factor in the 2nd.

Journeyman · Jan 5, 2004

Nope it wont work! Flipping a coin 100 times it turned up 51-49 going opposite ugh!

MudSlideSlim · Jan 5, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>If this were to be done over 1000 games you don t think it would be positive? You could even flip a coin really...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

pos, by 'chance' only because of the low # of trials. keep in mind in real life you would need about 530 wins

JudgeWapner · Jan 5, 2004

I think the book would make a nice profit.

MudSlideSlim · Jan 5, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>the 1st gm plays no determining factor in the 2nd.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

that cannot be said about 1st half tied to same gm. remember the O&E correlated "if bet" thing?

Journeyman · Jan 5, 2004

LOl- reminds me of the time I went to Atlantic City with the Red/Black Roulette theory I as told worked!

500 dollar lesson , I saw red hit 18 straight times! Ugh!

JudgeWapner · Jan 5, 2004

JM,exactly,same principal.

Would this turn a profit?

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