The reason Nevada casinos are turning to a 6/5 blackjack payoff

Search

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
246
Tokens
The fact is that blackjack, per-square-foot, has had a low win-rate. A player can learn a very simple basic strategy and get the house advantage down to about 1.5% in an eight deck shoe and can get it down to under 1% with perfect basic strategy (in most casinos, depending on rules). That's assuming a 3-2 payout on blackjack. One and a half percent doesn't cut it with the corporate bigwigs. A blackjack pit takes up a lot of space, and that space has to make a certain amount of money. It's rare nowadays that a casino gives something away in order to get customers --- "loss leaders" so to speak. Such things as poker rooms and sports books (both of which have a low hold per-square-foot) are there to draw and retain customers who want those things, and who will go elsewhere if they don't find them. A casino that took out any of the traditional table games such as blackjack, craps, roulette, etc., would see many customers and potential customers heading for casinos that have them.

Over the last decade, Las Vegas had gotten away from making gambling its main feature and turning towards making the city a convention center and destination resort for tourists. Rooms that used to cost $40 now cost over $100. While most casinos still have loss-leader food specials (usually on graveyard when traffic thins out), meals that once cost $5 now run from $15 to $20.

This effects blackjack because it's viewed with the same per-square-foot criteria as everything else. The traditional hold on a table game is about 20%---in other words, over the course of time, if X number of players buy in for $100,000, the house can expect to pay out about $80,000 of it and retain about $20,000. This figure is remarkably accurate for almost every table game, except blackjack and baccarat. The house doesn't mind a lower hold on baccarat because the mean (average) bet is higher than it is with other table games. Because of the overall improvement in blackjack play (through the use of basic-strategy cards and the availability of information on proper play), the table hold for blackjack in a game that pays 3-2 odds is much lower than 20%, around (according to a floorman) 12%. That simply isn't high enough, given the amount of space that a blackjack pit takes and the number of personnel and other expenses (new cards, etc.) that it needs to operate. So many casinos have gone to the 6/5 payout, which adds about another 1.5% to the house advantage (1.45%, I believe), which increases the total house advantage on the mean (average) player from about 3% to about 4.5%. That will increase the house hold per player-session from 12% to about 18%, which is more in line with the traditional 20%.

The whole notion of the 6-5 payout being unfair goes against the fact that all casino games are essentially unfair in that the house has an edge in each (or intends to). The house (at least in Vegas and most regulated casinos) offers honest games, but with the advantage necessarily in favor of the house. All the house is doing with blackjack is getting the advantage in line with that of other table games. Simply: a 1-3% advantage is fine for a low-maintenance small-area-consuming slot or video poker machine, but it isn't enough for a higher-maintenance (personnel, etc.), larger-area-consuming table game.
 

Active member
Joined
Oct 20, 1999
Messages
75,444
Tokens
This really unnerves me!
icon_mad.gif
 

The Great Govenor of California
Joined
Feb 21, 2001
Messages
15,972
Tokens
pretty soon Vegas will be like California Indian reservations and have nothing but slot machines and a bar to keep people drunk.
 

Active member
Joined
Oct 20, 1999
Messages
75,444
Tokens
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Railbird:
pretty soon Vegas will be like California Indian reservations and have nothing but slot machines and a bar to keep people drunk.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

But those california slots are HIGHLY beatable.
icon_wink.gif


Especially the one near Fresno.
icon_wink.gif
icon_wink.gif
 

New member
Joined
Jul 20, 2002
Messages
75,154
Tokens
I'm suprized we see any table games at all, in fact in 10 years we may not see them. The house hold on slots is where the real money is. They do not require dealers, and are so easy to play, no experience is necessary. Why waste extremely valuable floor space on low hold table games. Matter of time before we will be calling the city Slots Vegas.

wil.
 

And if the Road Warrior says it, it must be true..
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,481
Tokens
I think that the demand for table games will always be strong. I hate to play slots, love the rush when cards are being delt by a human.....not a computer. Just my 2 cents...
Happy New Year to everyone on the RX
1036316054.gif
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
246
Tokens
The table games are going the way of the poker rooms and sportsbooks. The latter two are there primarily as service areas: so that customers who want to play poker and bet sports won't go to other casinos. The casino knows that a lot of those players will head to the tables and feed money to the machines. I doubt that tables will totally die out, because there's too much tradition. But those areas get smaller every year.
 

New member
Joined
Jul 20, 2002
Messages
6,480
Tokens
wil,

I'm afraid you may be partially right. While I don't see tables disappearing in every casino I think they may go to relatively high table minimums such as $25 or $50.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,103
Tokens
there will always be baccarrat

you got to keep those asians happy

they love that game
 

waw

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
150
Tokens
FWIW: online casinos are also feeling the pinch on BlackJack as well and starting to wonder if it is really worth it. House edge dropping to 1%? More like 0.2% with perfect modified basic strategy. Whats more, online, you don't even have to memorise anything as you can have the charts in front of you. Craps is another game where you can really squeeze the edge down (esp. with non marked bets).

Add the bonus, and you can see why sportsbook casinos and pureplay casinos are starting to exclude BJ from wagering requirements on bonuses. The bonus money can actually give the player a POSITIVE edge over the house!

Hope we never see BJ disappear on the Strip - it is a great social game - not as fun as craps, but still lots of fun with friends.
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
Joined
Dec 20, 2001
Messages
4,577
Tokens
Old Ballgame:


I never thought that that was the reason but it makes great sense. I thought they were trying to run off the cardcounters. Good post.

Next thing you know the casinos will be charging 3 bucks a beer because it will add 2 cents the bottom line every quarter.


Hitman
 

There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
15,270
Tokens
Good post.

It's sad to think of the casinos turning into an idiot haven (more so than now) of slots-only
icon_frown.gif
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 20, 2003
Messages
17,238
Tokens
12% is a low number for hold on BJ. Look up the figures and you will find it is more in line with 18%. There is data out there that supports this if you look for it.
 

waw

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
150
Tokens
Hold varies hugely by table and by casino. To say the hold is 12% or 18% does not make a huge amount of sense to me as it does vary so much both internally and externally. In casinos I have worked for, the variation has been quite dramatic between casinos.

Obviously, no-one (that includes us) is going to publish their true hold.

Can't bitch at the Strip casinos for chasing their margins - anything that damages the margin is bad for business, and remember, thats what this is, a business. The only decision they have to make is how much will their customer base tolerate?

Changing the core rules of BJ does seem to be a not very subtle way of doing it. Why not just reduce the number of BJ tables available, and while their at it, change the table limits as well. They could put some more profitable table games in their place (They've probably got enough Slots!
icon_wink.gif
).

Just an idea...
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
11
Tokens
It is a sad day indeed when casinos in Central America, (Nicaragua and Panama) have rules that are more player friendly than those of the Las Vegas strip. In fact, the 6-5 rule is only marginally better than the atrocious "rummy" rules offered in Costa Rica.
 
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
100
Tokens
6-5 Blackjack is ridiculous, but not as ridiculous as the people who actually enable them to offer it by playing the damn game.

Even under 3-2 blackjack, most players do not play "pefect" basic strategy, and most do not have a clue about money management.

The house edge with a six deck shoe is more pronounced than what is stated above(house edge increases by about .5% with each extra deck).

The fact is that 3-2 blackjack, especially with 6 deck shoes, is extremely profitable for the house. Switching to 6-5 is just getting greedy, but, like anything, if enough people are stupid enough to play it, then it will work for them.

There's a great quote from an old casino owner when asked what he likes best about running a casino: "I like the risk. Some nights we win. Other nights we win more."
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
396
Tokens
I guess there's not really much reason for me to go to Vegas anymore. Sportsbetting is better on line and with the 6/5 apparently my local area blackjack games are better than Vegas now too. It use to be I'd have to go to Vegas for the best games and best odds.
 

RX Senior
Joined
Apr 20, 2002
Messages
47,431
Tokens
"........The fact is that 3-2 blackjack, especially with 6 deck shoes, is extremely profitable for the house........"

yes that is true. unless a bunch of kids from MIT are playing.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
497
Tokens
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by apuestas:
It is a sad day indeed when casinos in Central America, (Nicaragua and Panama) have rules that are more player friendly than those of the Las Vegas strip. In fact, the 6-5 rule is only marginally better than the atrocious "rummy" rules offered in Costa Rica.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Actually "rummy" is much better than the 6-5 offered by many casinos. In rummy you can split aces and continue to hit, which is a huge edge to the player. Vegas sucks with this 6-5 thing. they make plenty of money with blackjack. give me a fcking break.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
11
Tokens
Since there is no published basic strategy for the rummy game and to my knowledge no study of the exact rummy house advantage it is all guess work. However, it appears to me that by only paying even money to the player on blackjacks gives the house a lot of flexibility to add rules that make rummy more palatable to the players.
This is only a surmise but I would not be surprised to see the San Jose gringo gulch casinos holding an average of 28% on the rummy game.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,655
Messages
13,453,325
Members
99,428
Latest member
callgirls
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com