What is the typical MONEYLINE spread???

tatehill2000 · Dec 18, 2003

as we all know,, a vig with points is TYPICALLY 10% so lets assume this is industry standard,,

Now,,, when laying Moneyline,,, there is a standard also??? YES,???
is it 20,30,40 what??
ie; -160 to +120

would a spread of 40 be considered aerage?
thanks guys,,,
tater

tatehill2000 · Dec 18, 2003

Fishhead · Dec 18, 2003

Baseball-- 10 cents (eg. -140 +130)

Football--20 cents (eg. -140 +120)

tatehill2000 · Dec 18, 2003

so seeing a 30 or 40 cent spread,,,, whats to be made of that???
Keep away>??? shitty situation,,,

(thanks by the way)

drunkguy · Dec 18, 2003

the further away from even it is, the more the spread is.

what fishhead said is right for games "around" even.

But as the ML goes up to +300, +400, +1000, expect to see a lot bigger spread involved.

Fishhead · Dec 18, 2003

tate- depends on the sport.

Like stated above, 20 cents is the norm for football.

Obviously alot depends on the actual pointspred of the game.

A game that has a high pointspread will generally garner a higher moneyline spread with a bigger gap than the normal 20 cents.

-320
+280 for example is acceptable.

Do not know your situation your asking specifically.

wilheim · Dec 18, 2003

Good examples this week are:
Ravens -3 over the Browns ML -165 take back +145.

Seahawks -14 over the Cards ML -1000 take back +700.

So you can see the bigger the favorite the greater the disparity in juice.

wil.

Tekari · Dec 18, 2003

This is exactly why the side usually has more value than the moneyline

wilheim · Dec 18, 2003

Tekari - I agree when betting favorites, especially in the NFL. I don't have the exact % right now, but a high % of teams that win on the field, cover the spread, I think it was 9-4-1 last week. In other words taking the points laying -110 is uneccesary. Betting a team say +140 to win on the field has more value, than taking that same team, plus 3 -110. The trick is to handicap live dogs.

wil.

Sodium Pentethol V · Dec 18, 2003

The number Wil is looking for is in the 80% range typically. This year it started out at a torrid 88% clip, I haven't looked lately.

All the juice in the NFL is on the chalk, doesn't matter if spreads or moneyline's. I think the difference in juice is offset by the fact that the drones are all playing spreads exclusively now thanks to the lower juice, with little regard to variance, or that squares like to lay wood.

Takeout is not the end all in betting. It was a misperception I operated under for decades. I missed 10yrs worth of $$$$ making with prop betting and other nonsense. Such a mypoic approach leads to many missed oportunities.

earl · Dec 18, 2003

as for a money line example: pinnacle has nba tonight dal/minn money line at 208/188 EVERY other book has the vig at 30 or 40. as we all know you gotta have a pinnacle account, no books can compare with the line value they offer.

[This message was edited by earl on December 18, 2003 at 07:11 PM.]

trytrytry · Dec 18, 2003

It is tru the money line will get bigger the larger the point spread sometimes looking almost foolish,.

However for the player with an opinion a money line with 200 cent spread like -1200 +1000

is a better value bet than -110 vs -110. In fact its A LOT better!!

Do you know why and can you show the math why?

Sodium Pentethol V · Dec 18, 2003

Do you know why theoretical juice is garbage, can you do the math and tell me why?

hint a dog gets hung at 12/1, if I hang the chalk at 1/20, theoretical juice is looking pretty good?

Theoretical juice and the straddle are garbage either something is being offered at odds higher than an expectation or not.

tatehill2000 · Dec 18, 2003

thank you guys for your help,,,,
tater

trytrytry · Dec 18, 2003

sodium I agree either its an overlay or its not. That is true. but the % of time there is an overlay is maximized the lower the theoretical juice! Thats why -1200 and +1000 has a much better chance of being an overlay (higher odds than expectaion). Got it?

Sodium Pentethol V · Dec 18, 2003

Got it.

I'd rather see all books go back to nickel MLB lines rather than penny ones.

Got it?

What is the typical MONEYLINE spread???

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