rate this middle...

SportSavant · Dec 13, 2003

NE - 6.5 -101
JX + 7 -110

MudSlideSlim · Dec 13, 2003

u mean 'side' not middle but

loser. need 7'

IDENTITY · Dec 13, 2003

u serious, ss?

wilheim · Dec 13, 2003

both belong in the Football forum. Sports Savant just in case you don't know what the various forums are for, they are for questions like this one. Perhaps you may have some other motive for posting this sportsbetting 101 stuff here in the Offshore Forum.

wil.

SportSavant · Dec 13, 2003

no intention of bothering you with this 101 chatter...just curious if it is value or not based on key numbers & trying to trigger 'general' Conversations on the topic...why would it bother u anyway?

sportsadvisory · Dec 13, 2003

SportSavant, don't take this the wrong way but you have become quite the "post-whore" in this forum.

I don't have a huge problem with it but other's might.

SportSavant · Dec 13, 2003

wow......you guys take the forum really serious dont you...did it ever occur to you that maybe I am in need of some 101 basics & all am trying to do is stimulate so good discussions? Maybe I just like to chat...anyway...IF that is what the majority think, that I am a waste of space..I will simply step back & read...I seriously think, however some of you are in need of some serious meds? never realized posting alot would offend......

PO69 · Dec 13, 2003

Well first of all, it is NOT a middle AT ALL if there are not AT LEAST 1 whole point in the middle. Other than that, it is a stupid bet.

You need to learn alot about money management, because if you are trying to middle games with these numbers, then you wont be around very long

SportSavant · Dec 13, 2003

would you play a 2.5/3 side? & what would the juice have to be on each side to make you consider it attractive?

D2bets · Dec 13, 2003

Pays 19-1 for NE by 7. Take it or leave it. If you're bored and trying to just win big on the cheap and this is the best ya got then fine. 7 pt fav winning by 7 is about a 5% deal so 19-1 is pretty neutral EV. Knock it down to -6.5+102 with +7-110 and then you're in business.

D2bets · Dec 13, 2003

'3' is a different animal altogether. Historically it's about a 9% chance, but this year is easily outpacing that. Figure 10% which means -110 both ways is actually neutral EV. I'd want to beat that for sure and pay no more than 15 cents vig, tops. -110/-105 would pay about 13.5-1 needing just over 7% to BE. This is easily attainable long-term. But remember these are long-term plays of which there are a very limited sample to get. I've nailed several of these this season.

SportSavant · Dec 13, 2003

good analysis...what I was looking for thx...not quite as stupid as some of the above made it out to be?

THE SHRINK · Dec 13, 2003

SportSavant, you incite some good discussions about many different topics. I say that's a good thing!

mvbski · Dec 13, 2003

there better than reading truthteller threads

ladyoracle · Dec 13, 2003

savant - u have to smoke the good (!) ganja to hang with the crowd here..

my only advice - Fade Padther's <top reverse split> plays..

SportSavant · Dec 13, 2003

Beleive me....The Ganja is good up here North of the Border...Also dont have to worry about going to jail...I live backing on to some large fields...& lets just say it was a great summer for the outdoors...

PatrickMcIrish · Dec 13, 2003

SS - no offense but posting these and people telling you yes or no are doing no good long term, you need to do your homework. You need to find out the % the numbers land and then how and where the math comes in. It's not complicated at all. If you just ask is that a smart middle you will never learn anything. If you are going to ask a question I'd ask how do you figure out whether plays are positive expectation middles or not? And might want to try and ask it in the tech forum. Some sharp guys who know the answers to all this and more still look in down there, try it there. Also recommend reading back in those threads in that section, good information in there for beginners.

Last tip I learned from these forums is post something incorrect if you want to know the real answer. LOL. I have a nephew who knows ZERO about sports, he would ask a question and no one would answer. However if he posted something incorrect they will line up at the door to correct you. The irony is a lot of people won't share with you willingly but plenty will line up to bust your balls if you're wrong. Merry Christmas.

peskypup · Dec 14, 2003

this is marginal but plus 0.5% EV.

at this stage of the season I would only play middles where both teams are still in the hunt for play-offs BUT have not won their division.

Unless the middle was truly exceptional.

SportSavant · Dec 14, 2003

pat,

thanks for the tips, I hadnt checked out that forum yet...appreceiate it....

DannyMay · Dec 14, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sportsadvisory:
you have become quite the "post-whore" in this forum.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

SS,

You have 237 posts and you have been here for 21 days. That is ~ 11 posts a day. That does not make you a post whore. There are people here who average 50 posts a day.

I agree with D2Bets and Patrick, you need to figure out what odds you are getting on the side or middle. Then decide are you willing to make a bet that NE will win by exactly 7 points considering you are getting 19 to 1 odds. I for one think it is a good bet.