Contrarian Line Alert (BOS @ TOR NBA)

SportSavant · Dec 3, 2003

Pinnacle Offers TO Minus 1.5 -05 or Minus 123 on the Moneyline.

B365 is Offering BOS at + 2.5 -10 or + 125 on the Moneyline.

This is coming off the key # of 2 in the NBA.

If the folks over at Pinnacle are as Sharp as most people here think that they are that probably means that the correct side would Be BOS. So if you are Middling or Scalping I would suggest weighing that side. Personally I am gonna play the point Spread at 365 against the Moneyline at Pinny. Risking alot of juice, but heh, thats gambling.

Good Luck to all.

Good for Missling or Scalping.

BoZZi · Dec 3, 2003

Boston rolls tonight, just like the suns will!

D2bets · Dec 3, 2003

Nice analysis until your decision to play ML -123. As you are aware, '1' is definitely not a key number and not worth moving from -105 to -123. As a result, pk-123/+2.5-110 is far too much juice for a middle on 1 and 2. -1.5-105/+2.5-110 would be better but is still in itself a bit costly.

Jazz · Dec 3, 2003

You'd pay an average of 7.5 points for a ONE point middle in the NBA? That's 15 points you'd be paying, averaged to 7.5 points since you'd win both. Beg to differ, but I don't think the NBA stats would make that wager a wise one - but GL anyhow.

Jazz · Dec 3, 2003

D2 - we posted at the same time! lol - I'd pay probably half that for a one point middle, meaning 7 or 8 points TOTAL - I think we agree.

D2bets · Dec 3, 2003

Jazz, correct but actually he's paying 8.25 pts per side with 33 cost/4 sides....and this includes the weak '1'. 7.5 per side for the '2' is iffy but not awful. As it is, the 18 points for the '1' is more costly than the 15 points for '2'. That's clearly misguided.

Jazz · Dec 3, 2003

Ah, yeah, D2, I was referring to the -1.5-105 / +2.5-110 example, not that one - but I agree with your analysis on that one.

TheMDKid · Dec 3, 2003

FWIW - if you're middling in the NBA, the best key number is NOT 2. Believe it or not, it is 7. More games end up with a spread of 7 than any other number - happens year in and year out - hard to figure why, but it does.

D2bets · Dec 3, 2003

MD, I definitely believe it and you are correct. The '7' is the best number, followed by the '5' and then the '2'. My guess as to why is that's a number at which the losing team doesn't bother fouling in the closing seconds since it's a 3 score game.

TheMDKid · Dec 3, 2003

Thanks D2, I never thought of that. That definitely makes sense.

SportSavant · Dec 3, 2003

Thanks for all the feedbackk here, taht is why I post...to learn....Any more analysis on middles & what are good numbers etc is valued.

LEYKIS101 · Dec 3, 2003

Any opinions on -1.5 (-108) and +3 (-110)?

neilm · Dec 3, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by LEYKIS101:
Any opinions on -1.5 (-108) and +3 (-110)?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I'd buy that for a dollar.

neverstop · Dec 3, 2003

This stuff is all common sense. I have seen more middles that don't make sense being posted in the last month or so. It's time for a math class.

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