Computers, Math, and Numbers

angusr · Nov 26, 2003

I am a horrible gambler. I always lose more than I win, and to make matters worse I know the reason why I'm a horrible gambler and I haven't done anything about it . . . until now. You see, I bet with my heart and not my head. I'm one of those guys who bets with the Leafs because he loves the Leafs, or bets against the Yankees because I loathe the GD Yankees. In short, I let Mats Sundin's toothy grin cloud my judgement. So I decided that from now on I will rely only on objective facts and statistics when betting. I will develop strict criteria for what teams to bet on, and at what price. From now on I don't believe in clutch players, streaks, intangibles, or any of the other horse sh1t fairy tales my local gas bag sports announcer comes up with.

To this end, I'd be interested to hear how much you guys take into consideration numerical analysis and statistics when handicapping games. Do you rely predominantly on numbers? Which numbers are most valuable? (Obviously this will vary from sport to sport). Maybe you successfully go with your gut instinct? Or maybe you're just a lucky bastard?

Another thing I'd be interested in hearing about is if anyone has successfully used computer models to handicap games. I think baseball seems like a particularly good candidate for computer analysis since it is so well-described statistically. I know the program "Diamond Mind" baseball consistently outperforms almost all the experts when predicitng the final standings at the beginning of the baseball season.

Any thoughts?

Angus O.

hanover00 · Nov 26, 2003

Don't change the way you bet. Just learn to love great teams like the Yankees, and learn to hate teams like the Red Sox. That way you can bet your heart and win, too.

I know, I'm a wise ass, sorry.

angusr · Nov 26, 2003

. . . . %$#!'n Yankees. Screw objective criteria, I draw the line at the Yankees. I'll never bet on the Yankees.

RobFunk · Nov 26, 2003

get a subscription to stat fox. end of story. best handicapping investment you will ever make.

Fishhead · Nov 26, 2003

Nothing, and I mean nothing, beats watching LINE MOVEMENTS and everything it entails.

GringoinCR · Nov 26, 2003

You might want to do some research on the computer group and billy walters.

This is like asking if you can find dice at a craps table.

RobFunk · Nov 26, 2003

true gringo. the irony is that computer technology was almost non existent then in comparison to now, and that to date is still the most succesful program ever. and it was on a bunch of clunky batch cards. imagine. it took them an hour to load a program that was like 8k. so here we are in 2003 and there isnt a single piece of known software that gets those huge results.

angusr · Nov 26, 2003

Just finished an interesting article on those dudes: http://www.offshorebettor.com/images/COMPUTER.htm

I would love to get my hands on their program to see how highly they weighted the various metrics measuring team performance. It's also interesting that the sport I assumed would be easiest to analyze with a computer (baseball) was actually a failure for them.

It's possible that no one has been able to duplicate their success because the information that Kent built up became available to the bookmakers after their arrest. Maybe now it's built into the lines whereas in their era it wasn't.

BillDozer · Nov 26, 2003

I'll give you some good advice...

Stop looking at the past and start looking at oppurtunities presented to you now.

Kiss1 · Nov 26, 2003

Hey Bill, that new fish of yours looks like Hans Solo ...

Hey Angus, guess what happens when you crunch all those numbers ...

Yep ... I just spent 15 minutes decifering data

and

The line is about right.

Arrrrrrrrrgggggggggg !

angusr · Nov 26, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Kiss1:

Hey Angus, guess what happens when you crunch all those numbers ...

Yep ... I just spent 15 minutes decifering data

and

The line is about right.

Arrrrrrrrrgggggggggg !<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Kiss1,

That is definitely what I would expect to see. In fact if that's not what I found after crunching the numbers for many games I would have to conclude that there was some kind of flaw in the analysis. But I still think that some kind of automated computery-type thing could be an invaluable tool in quickly identifying the rare lines that aren't right, or are slightly off.

Any geniuses out there?

RobFunk · Nov 26, 2003

bill and kiss1. youre both right. stats are just stats. a history of whats happened. not whats going to happen.

angusr · Nov 26, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by RobFunk:
bill and kiss1. youre both right. stats are just stats. a history of whats happened. not whats going to happen.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

But they can be very useful predictors of what will happen. What else can you use to handicap a game if not the history of the teams/players involved?

BillDozer · Nov 26, 2003

Yes but not what I meant. Back then they had soft lines. Everyone was hitting them and it really was squares getting robbed by sharps. Now the lines are so sharp a book will label you a wiseguy just by the way you dot your iS.

Back then they had a computer because no one else did and they won at 60%. Yeah that great but it can still be done. They used a wepaon no one else had. Thats like going back in time when they used musketts with an oozi. You could of ruled the country with it.

So when I said stop looking at the past as in trying to get the computer program that the books and the syndis have you get your own oozi. Not everyone has satellite TV for example so that might be your oozi these days. And lines aren't too soft these days but you can get reduced juice and we all know what a bonus can do for our % at a decent book. Cross a local with your main online outs.

RobFunk · Nov 26, 2003

AWESOME POST BILLDOZER! yes, of course!! damn. why didnt i think of that?!

the computer group was using a bunch of batch cards and loading them 1 by 1 onto a PC.

back then, a method like that wasnt too convenient for the oddsmakers.

RobFunk · Nov 26, 2003

angus the power estimator by stat fox tells you what they think the line should be. it kicks ass at times and goes on rediculous runs. it is soley based on stats. look at phoenixsports or jhonny detroit web site you can check out the free watered down version of it.

angusr · Nov 26, 2003

Thanks Rob,

I will check that out for sure. I just wish I could pick the brain of the guys that develop these methods. I'd like to understand why they use the stats they do and how they use them. Somebody needs to start offering a course in this stuff . . .

dimeplayersonly · Nov 26, 2003

ANGUS ONTARIO..............let me give you some advice that none of these guys who have responded or any other poster will give you....................

DONT CHANGE A THING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

keep betting with your heart........at least when you bet like that you are having a good (or bad..lol) time........

face this one IMPORTANT FACT..........you sir will NEVER MAKE A LIVING BETTING ON SPORTS (if you could, you would not have started this thread)........so why bury yourself with computer programs, stats, numbers, trends.......all of that handicapping mumbo jumbo..........when the end result will MOST LIKELY PRODUCE SIMILIAR RESULTS......the same results if you didnt change anything about they way you wager.........sure you may decrease your losses.....may even show a minimal profit...........but is a minimal profit worth....not being able to bet with your heart????

the answer in the long run NO.....if you are the type of person who gambles ONLY WHAT MONEY HE CAN AFFORD TO LOSE..........and nothing more, and after a miracle win in the bottom of the ninth.........you go to work the next day on cloud nine because you won a game in the bottom of the ninth.......you my friend are ahead of the game and dont even know it.....gl

dimeplayersonly · Nov 26, 2003

let me add this .......the advice these other guys have given is very solid........but like i said 90% percent of gamblers DO NOT WIN IN THE LONG RUN.........i know my advice will be your least favorite..........but mine is the most realistic......

DarrylParsons · Nov 27, 2003

dime,

You say some twisted stuff sometimes but you are probably right. I have never heard of anyone go from being a loser to a winner by using someone else's math skills. You really need to have the math skills yourself since the situations are so varied. There is no such thing as a golden crutch in sports betting. That would be too simple.

Angus,

I would still bet with your heart because that is why you bet in the first place. The only thing I would change is that, before you bet on the team you like, think of the line you want and only bet if the line being offered is more than that. If not, then simply don't bet and you will have a win-win situation. If your team wins, then you can be happy to see the Yanks lose, for example, and if you lose, you can be happy about the money you saved.

STRUT,

Could you briefly describe what you look for in line moves, or at least point me to a thread in which this has been discussed? I've tried that approach before and it never got me anywhere. Are there any particular sports in which line moves are especially important to watch? Thanks.