what is the point of 'betting steam'?

kenuk · Oct 21, 2003

it seems that books are especially on the lookout for players 'betting steam'

I'm not exactly sure what this is, but I think it's hitting a line in anticipation of an imminent move

but if you're not part of a syndicate, why would you do such a thing?

for example, if I see the RX screen books jumping toward one team, but I see that one screen book is lagging in moving its line, why would I jump on that book's line unless I had wanted that bet all along anyway? I mean, if I didn't like the bet at -4, why would I all-of-a-sudden like it simply because other books have moved to -5?

do people actually look at these moves and think that whoever's behind them has superior knowledge?

IntuitionBET · Oct 21, 2003

kenuk - What if your just using your GUT and get on a roll and place winning bet after winning bet for awhile, with no inside info etc?

Are you betting Steam? Fuk no! but it may look like it to them

BillDozer · Oct 21, 2003

It goes both ways. If you like the Bulls at -3 but want to see where its going you can wait till one of the lead volume books change. Say you see it go to -6 then you know you have to hit the -3 quick before one of the lagging books follow. So if your watchin steam you can often do better 50% of the time. Thats a dramatized example. Of course people also use steam to hit both sides for middles and scalps.

A book that lags behind and has steam chasers risks getting one sided action and end up gambling in their own right which in theory they do not want to do.

BillDozer · Oct 21, 2003

I bet,
Books don't mistake steamchasers. They can tell by when you bet. You can lose consistantly and still be a steamchaser.

neilm · Oct 21, 2003

Steam wins in NCAA football and hoops. Plain and simply it hits at 55+%. That is why people chase it.

SubZaero · Oct 21, 2003

neilm got it right on the money. Steam plays are good on 2 or 3 pt moves, specially in NCAA hoops and FB totals, a ½ pt move on nfl (unless on 3) usually won't give you that much of an edge.

kenuk · Oct 21, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by neilm:
Steam wins in NCAA football and hoops. Plain and simply it hits at 55+%. That is why people chase it.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I don't see why that would be

any explanation?

do the people causing the steam know something?

IntuitionBET · Oct 21, 2003

BillDozer - I agree. But I'm talking about betting without watching and chasing the steam.and just making your bets with the timing that LOOKS like you are steam betting.

BillDozer · Oct 21, 2003

IB
I dont know what your saying here. I dont see a scenario where you could appear to be betting with line movement but not be. You'd have to be on the right side of the line movement consistantly to make the books think that. Yo ueither are or arent. We talkin about Psychic friend cappers? Dion Warwich the steamchaser?

PatrickMcIrish · Oct 22, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by kenuk:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by neilm:
Steam wins in NCAA football and hoops. Plain and simply it hits at 55+%. That is why people chase it.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

do the people causing the steam know something?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yes.

IntuitionBET · Oct 22, 2003

BillDozer - I have been accussed of chasing steam in the past when all I was doing was placing what turned out to be a string of winning bets right along with the timing of steam chasers, when I was WASN'T even monitoring the lines.
I was just following my hunches and made last minute bets.
Which eventually led me to choose the posting name of Intuition bet.

[This message was edited by Intuition BET on October 22, 2003 at 10:21 AM.]

docdekay · Oct 22, 2003

The problem with blindly chasing steam early is that you never know whats a head fake and what isnt. If you bet a fake you're head will spin so quick that when the number backs up that you'll be left dizzy with a shit number. This happens ALL the time.

TheGeneral+ · Oct 22, 2003

It seems the fake may be a popular the style these days. One can see that the bluff is a big part of the game of wagering.

kenuk · Oct 22, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Patrick McIrish:

Yes.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

can you elaborate? who are they? what do they know?

how would I know the line isn't moving just because of the general public especially liking one side?

drunkguy · Oct 22, 2003

also, if you are chasing steam you need to get it early. Sharps will back off when the line loses value but the chasers will keep hitting it, driving it too far to the other side.

Horseshoe · Oct 22, 2003

The point of it more than not is to create a "flow", and that is why it's blindly flipping a coin, "if one doesn't know the Who, What, When, Where, nor Why" of said particuliar steam.

One has to have his sides well thought out, and have set parameters for numbers if they're gonna choose to be a follower of a particuliar group's moves or even a particuliar out's changes for that matter.

Steam ain't what it used to be in much of it's good ways(the food/relay chain has been largely circumvented over the years, thus "info" died a bit with the proliferation of off-shores), but it also seems that it isn't as much of itself in many of it's bad ways today also(send-outs/fake moves/front money isn't as freely torched the way it was when NYC and domestic mob-run stores were doing as much bank onshore & fending off followers and clerks in offices putting it all in the streets?)..I may be totally wrong, but this seems plausible to me?

Besides it(info/food-chains) went underground and lost much of it's valuable relay time with technology, the old guard dying off, and many wiseguys going bust, plus Vegas taking a bit of the backseat in terms of boldness & running off much of the sharps and runners, so if you're not sitting pretty in a strategic place of the food-chain or have a keen eye for the "real steam" vs."bait"...you're generally too late!

The game's changed and always will..adapt or die!

[This message was edited by Horseshoe on October 23, 2003 at 02:46 AM.]

BillDozer · Oct 23, 2003

I think its still a major factor when its hangin on -10 and you see the faster books move 2 points one way. You just found yourslef a 2 point advantage being able to pick from 2 totally diff lines. It doesnt usually move 2 points in say hoops but thats the only way i factor it in.

Sodium Pentethol V · Oct 23, 2003

The NCAA lines this year have had lowest average mean error since I have been keeping track.(abt 13 yrs)

Hard to believe anyone is consistently making a better line across the board.

THE SHRINK · Oct 23, 2003

I have very little respect for people who chase steam. My opinion of these people is about the same as that for bookmakers who clone their lines...

For someone to state that chasing steam results in a 55% win rate is assanine.

Any sharpie knows that it is all about getting the BEST number, and steam chasers NEVER get the best number...

neilm,

You never mentioned how far away from the best number the steam chaser is when calculating that ficticious 55% winning percentage ...

With the number of phonies that the largest syndicate in the world throws out there, I would not recommend trying to make a living by taking 1-2 points the worst of it, specially in HOOPS!!!

THE SHRINK

Chadster · Oct 23, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>what is the point of 'betting steam'? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

To make money

what is the point of 'betting steam'?

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