Back when I started in this business, I knew nothing about scalping or middling, I only realized that I could rather easily make a small profit by making small, straight, flat wagers only and hitting just over 50%. I was able to do that helped by the weight the books were carrying with their bonuses. I only posted up in books with a 3X or 2x rollover. I really knew nothing about gambling but knew quite a bit about sports.
So 54% lets say, was not terribly difficult to attain. In fact, it was rather easy to do with a knowledge of sports, a lot of honest homework, making straight wagers only, keeping them small and betting a flat amount. Common sense told me that if they increased my stake, and I kept exactly to my betting plan, did not chase, etc., I would beat them most of the time at rollover end.
In those days the game I played was not about money, it was about having fun and just "beating the book" even if only for small change. That was my competition; just beating the book. I didn't consider that "bonus whoring" just taking what they gave me and playing them "straight". [no pun intended].
Things have changed now. Wager size has increased and I stay loyal to good books. But otherwise my flat, straight wagers stay the same except for as I said wager size. But I still almost never exceed 2% of bankroll. When I finally got in trouble was when I started to chase and play a few parlays and teasers. Got off my game plan and my whole accounting system. I realized what I was doing, took time off, and have not done it since.
This is a very conservative game plan and not for everybody, I'll quickly concede that.
Three yards and a cloud of dust and a tough D by never chasing, betting staight and flat only. I knew from long ago in the world of sports that, while not glamorous and it doesn't necessarily win big, it wins most of the time.
If I can take the analogy further, the books are waiting for a turnover, a trick exotic play, or a change in game plan should you get a little behind. They expect a mistake on your part. Maybe these days they aren't getting it as much anymore as folks wise up. They can be beat by playing conservative smashmouth not to mention scalping and middling which I don't seek to do. Now it's time for them to wise up.
I would now be happy with no bonus in exchange for security and a bit of reduced juice. Wise up BM's, what would be the incentive to pull out especially if you throw in some easily attainable loyalty stuff like an XXL polo shirt and a girlie calendar. Or for that matter use your marketing expertise and come up with something new that doesn't cost you much but the guys would want. I am amazed that I never see any new non-monetary incentives.
Yea keep throwing out the 20% and and get beat by both scalpers, middlers and even guys who play you straight with a good game plan. If you think you're going to get loyalty you're smokin' yak hair.
If you are new and not massively funded, maybe it's a bit late to get into the game unless you are scum. If you are scum, you are now dealing with an ever increasingly knowledgable and sophisticated public and you should stay or get into the drug trade where you belong.
For newbies remember that, while the bonuses last, the books are carrying too much weight and if you stick to my plan or a similar one, you'll be "in with a feather." Look for no more than a 3x rollover, forget 5x or more. You can pull this off with just 10% if you seek no instant riches. But BEWARE beyond the 10% except for seasonal one time type of promotions from respected top tier books.
If I am leading newbies into prostitution, so be it. They keep it legal and it pays. But you don't have to scalp or middle. Play them straight and beat them. Pull out and do it again until they stop the stupid bonuses.
If a book like bet BetPanam gives you 20% for a few days, weigh risk and reward and come up with your own conclusion. That's one you may want to stay at though if you got in this week. The reduced juice should keep you there.
