Interesting 'prop' on Kansas City Chiefs released!!!!!!!-

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Am I reading that right? They're giving 100-1 (that's ONE HUNDRED!) for KC going 16-0 in the regular season? If that's the case then I'm going to personally fly to Vegas tommorrow if they'll at least let me get down 10K in action to win $1 mil. Gotta make it worth my time.

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LOL - can you spell 'S-C-A-L-P'!!???

Wonder what the limit is - anyone with about $95,000 to spare could lock in, in staged wagers, probably around 4-5 grand by scalping Pinnacle's 'NO' line of -1270, which of course would move upward each time you hit it. Put $1,000 down in Vegas and a little over $93,600 at Pinnacle (probably range up to $97,000 before you're done).

Or, simply put down $12,800 at Pinnacle to ensure yourself a free shot at $87,500.

Probably could hedge this monkey too, but since I can't bet it, I'm not going to figure it out to the nines.

You lucky bastards in Vegas - HAMMER IT!!!
 

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I was at CP and saw the 100-1 last Wed. I am kicking myself for not betting it. I'm sure CP would not take more than a nickel on that prop. One more thing I am sure of, its no longer 100-1
 

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You guys beat me to it.
major scalp.

Also just from a pure value point of view the lines 10 wins - 100 to 1 and 11 wins - 20 to 1 look huge value.
 

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100-1? WOW. As in $100 returns $10,000?

And to think, Pinnacle has the same bet up at +1070 right now.

10-1 versus 100-1? What gives here? Can someone in Vegas actually verify it is indeed 100-1, as in +10000. I find that hard to believe. I just think someone can't read the board correctly. It is probably 10-1 like Pinnacle is showing.
 

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Chuck - Jesus, man, God how I wished I'd be in Vegas when that prop was up! I'd have gotten all my buddies, stand in line and hit them for the max in succession.

If you'd gotten $500 down at 100-1, an easy no-brainer hedge to get a free shot: play the dog ML in every single game in a sliding progressive method. Jesus, what EASY money that would have been! You could also cash GREAT just be totally hedging it!

40 lashes to you for not CREAMING that one!!!
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I want to know what in the world 'ol Chucky Esposito was thinking. He even bothered to estimate the spreads for the remaining 8 games. It would taken an extra 3 minutes (tops) to figure the ML's and the 8-game parlay:
-10 is -500
-4.5 is -220
-8 is -320
-6 is -240
pk is -110
-12 is -700
+1 is +100
-10 is -500
Put it all together and you get 'true value' of +1600. Add some reasonable juice both ways and make it +1400 for the 'yes' and -1800 for the 'no'. This isn't rocket science. What'd he do, pick 100-1 out of a hat???
 

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Just got an update (that story was actually written Sunday) and it is now ALL THE WAY down to 5/1. But IT DID open 100/1. The remaining odds to win an exact number of games are all the same!!!!

Charlie
 

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Oh man, I can't believe Esposito was that clueless and in charge of the henhouse to boot! I wonder how long it stayed open and whether he opened it that high simply to get foot traffic in as a loss-leader, than moved the odds quickly down to cut off the sharps and the lucky few tourists.
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Jazz - The prop is still available. The story I got over the phone just now is that he opened it 100/1 to get publicity, but actually moved it to 75/1 without taking any bets at 100/1. He said he has gotten all ONE-WAY action on it since.
 

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LOL, I know Esposito's been at CP for awhile but I'm thinking if they took big action as I'm sure they did and if the Chiefs do the deed this year he may be looking for new employment!
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That's still mind-boggling. The 16-0 odds was the easistes one to figure too. How could he botch it so bad. Better yet, doesn't he have a Pinnacle account??? -- they've had this prop for awhile.
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Charlie: 75-1 is insane too - when exactly did he post this bet for public betting at 75-1? Looks like I got the 'loss leader' part right, the other part about the foot traffic is probably right too.
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Charlie, 75-1 was still way way way too high. I wonder how much action he took at over 20-1. Whatever he took was that much too many. I know Vegas likes to gamble, but it's dumb to gamble on those kinds of odds.
 

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Even at 75-1 if he let 100 people have a crack at it for a nickel each, he'd be on the hook for 3.75m and probably couldn't cover any more than maybe 1 to 1.5m of it. I know CP has deep pockets, but 2+m still isn't chump change.
 

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d2- it would be VERY interesting to know how much money he took on each number as it went down to its present 5/1
 

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No 'effing' way he let that many people bet that line ... here's the probable progression ...


75-1 ... 2 bets at $500
60-1 ... 2 bets at $500
45-1 ... etc, etc, etc.

If this guy took significant action at the high end, then he was not doing his job properly and I don't think Esposito is a fool. I think this was, as Charlie said, a publicity stunt, and a short-lived one at that: any bets he gave out at high numbers were just loss leaders, like the sales at a grocery store, to get you in to drop your cash around the casino.
 

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Lurker: no sir, you've confused that - you can't scalp 'YES: +500'
with 'No: -1270' ... all scalps must have the absolute value of the positive number greater than the absolute value of the negative number, like +400 vs. -300, but not +300 vs. -400.
 

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Jazz, that may be true, but even still, in my eye putting out a number like 100-1 either makes him look stupid or makes him look essentially like a liar/phony with it now at 5-1. If he wanted a loss-leader, fine, put out a nice number like 20-1 and gently move it to 8-1 or so. But don't open 100-1 and then hammer down to 5-1 to where it's not even bettable by a fool. That's too phony even for Vegas!
 

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