Question regarding value

How do you determine moneyline value in football and/or basketball? I think the huge emphasis on pointspread on these high-volatility scoring games may be misguided and the underdog advantage may be a myth. In these games, whether you bet on the fav or the dog, you're still faced with the same -110 liability and must hit around 53% or better either way to show a profit. I personally find it a challenge to hit over 53% in ANY sport over thousands of picks - I know some people do it but it's difficult. In games like tennis and soccer, I emphasize on dog plays to win straight up and tend to show a profit over time even when I hit less than 50%. I'm thinking of trying the same thing in basketball and football from now on - determining when an underdog has a good chance to win, betting them outright at nice +moneylines and shooting for 50% over time. What I would like to find out, though, is how often does a football/basketball underdog who covers the spread also win outright, categorized according to the size of the spread (I'm sure the percentage changes with a 14 pt. spread as opposed to a 3 pt. one). Do you know of anywhere from which I could gather this information? I want to find out whether, historically at least, betting underdog moneylines would have been more profitable than betting the spread. Thanks.

I ran a though some data on College football through week 12 of last year.

Dogs from -6 to 0 who covered, won straight up 39 out 45 times. At an average of +160 (rough) that would be 56 units compared to a 41 units had you had taken the points.

I bet the M/L a lot myself. The main thing is having outs. I have 4-5 outs that I keep just because I know they have a higher take then most other books on the dogs.

Anyone remember the old days when you would find a thread like this with 15-20 quality answers? That was then and this is now.

CFB MLs since 2000 to week 7 2003, subject to human error:

Home Dog (+14to0)
ATS ( 228-236)= -29 units
ML (332 units won- 312 units lost)= +29 units

Home Dog (+12to0)
ATS (212-209)= -19 units
ML (280units won- 279lost)= 1 unit

Home Dog (+7to0)
ATS (136-147)= -24 units
ML (175 units won-174 units lost)= 1 unit

Home Dog (+3to0)
ATS (57-76) = -24 units
ML (68units-76units)= -8 units

Visiting Dog (+14to0)
ATS (383-352)= -4unit
ML (544-502)= 42 units

Visiting Dog (+12to0)
ATS (329-305)= -6units
ML (462 units - 416 units)= 46 units

Visiting Dog (+7to0)
ATS (195-189)= -12 units
ML (233 units-233 units)= even

Visiting Dog (+3to0)
ATS (76-72)= -3 units
ML (87units-77units)= 10 units

Thanks Pete