New warning on Geomagnetic Storm hitting on midday Wednesday (like a 'freight train')

(can affect cell phones, satellite communications, power grids, etc)



Tuesday, October 28, 2003

Scientists again warned that communications on Earth (search) could be disrupted this week by another spectacular eruption on the surface of the Sun and that it might even hamper firefighting efforts in California.

"It's headed straight for us like a freight train," said John Kohl, a solar astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (search) in Cambridge, Mass. "This is the real thing."

Predictions are it could strike Earth's magnetic field by midday Wednesday.

The explosion of gas and charged particles into space from the corona, the outermost layer of the sun's atmosphere, isn't harmful to people. But it can knock out satellite communications, which some emergency crews are relying on in battling California's wildfires (search).

Similar solar events in recent years have disrupted television transmissions, GPS navigation, oil pipeline controls and even the flow of electricity along power lines.

Space weather forecasters first warned of that possibility last week, when a previous solar flare erupted, and then they saw a new sunspot region developing in another region of the sun's face.

The cloud of charged particles from last week's eruption struck Earth "with only a glancing blow," Kohl said. It disrupted some airline communications.

But Kohl said scientists observed the biggest such explosion in 30 years shortly before 6 a.m. EST Tuesday. It produced a particle cloud 13 times larger than Earth and hurtled through the solar system at more than 1 million miles per hour.

The resulting geomagnetic storm could be ranked among the most powerful of its kind and last for 24 hours.

It is expected to disrupt the communications satellites and high frequency radios.

In southern California, wildfires already have knocked out many microwave communication antennas on the ground, making satellite communications important to emergency efforts. Researchers said safety personnel might encounter communications interference.

Federal researchers said they already have turned off instruments and taken other precautions with science satellites.

A positive note: strong geomagnetic storms can produce colorful auroras in the night sky visible as far south as Texas and Florida beginning late Wednesday.

Sunspots and solar storms tend to occur in 11-year cycles; the current cycle peaked in late 2000.

Scientists compared the latest flare to the "Bastille Day storm" that occurred in July 2000.

"The Bastille Day storm produced considerable disruption to both ground and space high-tech systems," said Bill Murtagh, a space weather forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

This one is supposedly 100x as powerful as last weeks "non-event".

TT!!! this is a sign!


you posted it was going to be strong on your 2222 post!!! we are done for!!

the picture above looks like your avatar dante.

Oct. 28, 2003 — As the sun continues to storm, a spectacular new flare erupted Tuesday. NOAA space weather forecasters categorized the flare, which occurred at 6:10 a.m. EST, as an X-17 with a full Coronal Mass Ejection or CME. The region producing this flare is 13 times larger than Earth. Forecasters at the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., say that the flare caused a strong S-3 radiation event, on a scale of 1 to 5 on the NOAA space weather scales, and a severe R-4 radio blackout. Radiation storms can affect satellites and cause high frequency communication problems. An R-4 storm can affect high frequency radio blackouts for several hours on the sunlit side of the Earth.

NOAA forecasters expect the fast moving blast from the sun to reach the Earth’s magnetic field on Wednesday at about midday, producing predominately a severe G-4 geomagnetic storm with possible periods of extreme G-5 storming. The solar radiation storm is also expected to continue at strong levels for the next few days.

The Aurora Borealis or northern lights may be visible in the northern tier of the U.S.

NOAA forecaster Bill Murtagh said this flare appears to be the second largest during this solar cycle. “This storm has a lot of similarities to the Bastille Day storm that occurred in July of 2000,” he said. That storm was also located near the center of the sun,and the associated coronal mass ejection also reached Earth very quickly. “The Bastille Day storm produced considerable disruption to both ground and space high-tech systems,” Murtagh said.

NOAA forecasters said the probability of another major flare occurring is high, and additional geomagnetic and radiation storms are likely.

Well,

Here at the beach house on the moon we didn't get a peep last week; even though I stayed inside all day.

So' Do I have to stay inside all day tomorrow?

Good Luck too all, I'm wearing SPF 69 all day tomorrow, even in bed!

G

lol - no, but if you like to sleep past noon, make sure your alarm radio is running on batteries

p.s. this storm could affect cell phones, beepers, satellite TV and anything relying on satellite communications, as well as high frequency radio communications and electric power grids. On the bright side, there ain't much you can do about it.

Hey Jazz,

Thanks, I hope you don't think I was being sarcastic. At some level this kind of stuff scares me a little.

I'm a bond trader here in Atlanta and I live my life on five cell phones every day; so a couple of days ago I get this class action lawyer letter about brain tumors and cell phones?

This guy in my office just died of an anyerism(sp?) two months ago. He was like me; making deals all the time on cell phones.

Sometimes I will be downtown and see dozens of people on cell phones and just wonder what kind of frequencies are streaming through all of us.

Glaken: nope, didn't think you were sarcastic, just facetious in a very funny sort of way! SPF 69 for a magnetic storm in bed - lol!

Seriously, though, there is no danger whatsoever for anyone on earth as far as being exposed to higher levels of radiation from sunspots simply because the duration of the event would have to be far, far longer. However, the danger is that the high-energy particles emitted from these coronal ejections of matter will "essentially short circuit the electronics, fry important connections, erase software vital to a craft's flight - in short, make the satellite go haywire".

Also from a 1999 article by Ronak Shah
Astronomy Department, University of Virginia:

The sun's various explosions also deliver more heat to the Earth's gassy atmosphere. When one heats a gas, it expands. With the upper atmosphere, or exosphere, extending out farther, more satellites experience orbital drag. Satellites rely on their high speeds (generally tens of thousands of miles per hour) to stay aloft in space. If an object in orbit loses speed, the Earth's gravity draws that object closer to the Earth. This cycle doesn't end unless energy (namely fuel) is expended to put the satellite back into a more stable orbit; unfortunately, most satellites possess little, if any, fuel to provide orbital corrections. Thus, the extra heat of the solar maximum reduces the performance lifetime of a satellite, adding to the danger that telecommunications devices will be lost.

Prediction of solar explosions might prove an important tool in combating damage to satellites. Recent data obtained by several solar telescopes in space have provided scientists with insight into the causal relationships between sunspots and various mass/radiation ejection phenomena on the sun. As a result, the sun is now regularly monitored for strong prominences and coronal mass ejections by scientists of the National Weather Service's Space Environment Center. Overseen by the Department of Commerce, the Space Environment Center will provide regular outlooks, watches, and warnings, much like those that occur for terrestrial weather storms. This publicly disseminated information will be closely watched by companies whose bottom line depends on satellites or large computer systems. Soon, we should expect to hear solar forecasts that read: "Signs of increasing X-rays and disturbances in the Earth's magnetic fields, rendering some satellites in danger of major power failures."

Satellites are not the only objects at risk during the solar maximum. Astronauts on-board the new International Space Station also will be exposed to more radiation, much of it potentially lethal. Space weather news will provide these astronauts with crucial information on when to schedule work outside the station and when to remain inside their well-shielded space environments.

Like many new technologies, all of the problems have not been solved, because they are not that well understood. The upcoming solar maximum may offer engineers and designers of satellite technology benchmarks for rating what is and isn't considered "space quality." On-board computers may be more capable of resisting damage; this may have added advantages in terms of a more powerful handling of data en route from one remote location on the Earth to another. However, satellite companies may find that the damage brought on by the upcoming solar maximum may prove difficult to work around, leading to increasing numbers of pager failures, garbled email, or worse, downed airplanes as the result of errors in the global-positioning satellites that help aircraft to navigate.

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I don't think I'd sweat the 'downed airplane' scenario because they have different ways to navigate than GPS, and they are well aware of the potential problem right now. Personally, since I have once experienced problems with the Directv satellite service during one of these events, I'm sweating whether my NFL package will be fine this weekend.

It's started earlier than predicted, which I find odd that they were off half a day on the ETA ...

Powerful Geomagnetic Storm Hits Earth

Wednesday, October 29, 2003

The most powerful geomagnetic storm (search) possible hit Earth early Wednesday, threatening power outages, disrupting airlines communications and damaging some satellites (search).

Space weather forecasters at a federal laboratory in Boulder, Colo., said the first pulse of highly charged particles from the Sun collided with Earth's magnetic field at 1 a.m. EDT, about 12 hours earlier than predicted.

The storm is rated a G5, the highest intensity on scientists' scale of space weather.

The last time a G-5 storm hit Earth was in 1989, researchers said, which damaged the power grid and caused electrical blackouts in Canada's Quebec Province.

"It is extremely rare to get this level of geomagnetic storming," said Larry Combs, forecaster for the Space Weather Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (search) in Boulder. "This is one of the strongest storms that we have received during this cycle."

So far, there were few immediate reports of damage related to the geomagnetic storm.

However, Combs said, "We know that our power grids are definitely feeling the effects of this."

Those charged with monitoring electrical grids are watching "very closely for their triggering devices," he said.

He also noted that there had been radio communications disruptions in recent days for airlines, especially those on north Atlantic and polar routes.

Another strong storm, although weaker than Wednesday's, occurred last week.

The sun generates particle storms in 11-year cycles and storms of this magnitude are rarely seen, scientists said. The current solar cycle peaked nearly three years ago, and such a powerful event occurring on the cycle's downside is especially surprising.

In Tokyo, Japan's space agency announced the Kodama communications satellite malfunctioned after being affected by the flare. The agency said it was temporarily shut down and would be reactivated after the storm subsided, but there was no major communication disruption.

The G-5 storm was spawned early Tuesday by a spectacular eruption from a sunspot blemish on the surface of the Sun that sent charged particles hurling toward Earth. The cloud is 13 times larger than Earth and travels at more than 1 million mph.

The explosion of gas and charged particles into space from the corona, the outermost layer of the sun's atmosphere, was the largest observed in 30 years, scientists reported. It isn't harmful to people.

In southern California, wildfires already have knocked out many microwave communication antennas on the ground, making satellite communications important to emergency efforts. Researchers said safety personnel might encounter communications interference.

Federal researchers had turned off instruments and taken other precautions with science satellites.

A positive note: Strong geomagnetic storms can produce colorful auroras in the night sky visible as far south as Texas and Florida, beginning late Wednesday.

Sunspots and solar storms tend to occur in 11-year cycles; the current cycle peaked in late 2000.

Scientists compared the latest flare to the "Bastille Day storm" that occurred in July 2000.

"The Bastille Day storm produced considerable disruption to both ground and space high-tech systems," said Bill Murtagh, a space weather forecaster for NOAA.

all Underdogs of +2.5 thru +6.5 points are 23 - 7 ATS. on days when very severe geomagnetic Solar Storms occur.


Remember where you heard it, wil.

LOL Wil

One of these days it is going to be very chaotic world when the asteroid hits us. Might as well live today like there is no tomorrow. Im gonna get a beer.