How should I hedge this bet???

peteep · Sep 24, 2003

I jumped on the Marlins early on at 400-1 odds to win the World Series. It looks like they are gonna make the playoffs. I threw a $100 on them, so I stand to win $40000. Any advice what I should do in terms of hedging?

I don't really want to bet big on their opponents. Call me crazy, but I think the fish actually have a shot at getting by the giants first round. They have been getting it done all year, and, although I don't have the exact stats of the other teams, I know the Marlins started the season 19-29. Since then their record is 69-41 (.627). That is right at the top of the league. Anyways, wishful thinking I suppose.

Any advice?

D2bets · Sep 24, 2003

Great odds. Good job. Depends how much profit you want to lock in. I would just bet progressively on Florida's opponent each series. The amount is up to you. With all that value definitely keep a lot of it on your WS bet. I would say at least hedge off the amount you've risked. You should be able to hedge off the risk and only lose maybe 3-4K of the possible 40K win.

PO69 · Sep 24, 2003

Well not really a chance at hedging at all since hte Marlins have NO CHANCE in hell of making it out of the first round of the playoffs.

I will say one thing though, NEVERRRRRRRRRRRRRR hedge a bet, it is bad news in the long run

Jazz · Sep 24, 2003

Completely disagree, playersonly. It depends on your motivation for the bet in the first place, as well as injuries and current performances of other teams.

peteep - do you have the capital to make a series of escalating bets on the Marlins' opponents?

peteep · Sep 24, 2003

Yeah, I have enough in the "rainy day" fund to make escalating bets. Hedging the bet in this case makes complete sense to me considering the amount I stand to potentially win.

Playersonly - that's a really stupid statement. I assume you're a giants fan. The marlins have played .627 ball since starting the season 19-29 which is a better winning % than any team in baseball. Of course the giants are the favourites, but do the marlins have a chance of beating them??? Of couse they do.

Jazz · Sep 24, 2003

peteep: in a series of escalating bets, you will have to answer the question backwards first: how much money would you like to win in these 2 events:

1 - the Marlins win the World Series

2 - the Marlins get to, but don't win the World Series

That would tell me a lot more on how you want to hedge

Jazz · Sep 24, 2003

hurry up, peteep, or I'll have to answer in the morning - lol

Pretending · Sep 24, 2003

I would definitely hedge and I would not waste time deciding who you like, who has a better chance of winning, etc. Spend your time on the math instead.

1st, can you trust you'll collect 40k from this book?

If so, my opinion would be to wager roughly 20k over the course of 3 series bets against FLA. Unless I am missing something you will stand to win roughly 20k if FLA wins and quite a bit less than that should they lose...hopefully more than 5 or 6k.

This is where Jazz' calculator should come in handy.

Then, each time you have a series bet in place, look for opportunities to hedge-the-hedge as the series develops. Depending on how this unravels you may or may not have further opportunities to lock-in profit. Ex: should FLA take a big lead and become the series favorite (for the remaining game(s)) you can then place an amount on the other team to pull it off.

Nice problem to have.

Jazz · Sep 24, 2003

okay, no answer - assume every other team vs. the Marlins is a -170 favorite ...

Series 1 - bet $1,700 to win $1,000 against the Marlins

Marlins lose - you cash $900 (don't forget to subtract the original $100 bet)

Marlins win - you are down $1,700 - go to Series 2

Series 2 - bet $5,100 to win $3,000 against the Marlins

Marline lose - you cash $3,000 - $1,700 - $100 = $1,200

Marlins win - you are down $5,100 + $1,700 = $6,800 - go to World Series

World Series - you dumb fuc-ker, you better have enough cash for this one - lol!

Bet $12,000 to win $7,058 against the Marlins

Marlins lose: you win $7,058 - $6,800 - $100 = $158

Marlins win: you win $40,000 - $12,000 - $6,800 - $100 = $21,100

peteep, it's all a question of how you feel - I slanted the World Series completely in the Marlins favor, but if you run your own numbers, you can make it however you like.

Jazz · Sep 24, 2003

Good advice, Pretending - I could have optimized the profit no matter the outcome, but barring peteep's input other than he favors the Marlins, I ran one which is not optimized but allows him to get out with some fun money if the Marlins don't get to the WS, some consolation chump change if they lose and a little over half the bananas if they win - he can certainly run the numbers himself, depending on what he thinks will happen.

Problem is, what kind of reserve does he have?

But a very nice wager to be sitting on

tuleythetout · Sep 24, 2003

playersonly...How can you say there's "no chance at hedging"?...if the Marlins have no chance to get out of the first round, that's the perfect reason to hedge. You're contradicting yourself.

peteep...you're in a great spot...the only bad thing is that you're probably looking at laying -200 to -300 in every series they play (and the farther they go, the more you'd have to risk to recoup the losses in the earlier rounds). Jazz is right...you need to work backwards and decide how much of the potential winnings you're willing to risk in order to ensure a tidy profit.

P.S. Wow! I thought this would appear two messages higher...didn't check back to see if Jazz was still posting...

TTinCO · Sep 24, 2003

Jazz & Pretending are right on here.

$100 with a 40 dime potential? MF'ing right you hedge it!!! Jazz can tell you better than I, but you should clear at least a couple dimes out of this.

[This message was edited by TTinCO on September 25, 2003 at 11:13 AM.]

PatrickMcIrish · Sep 24, 2003

Tuley - I don't think there is a team out there who will be close to -300 over the Marlins. If so I know where my action is going to be. I think the -170 Jazz put in is much more realistic and even that may be high. This is a quality team.

Nice bet Peteep, I like it a lot. Want to sell $50 of it let me know.

tuleythetout · Sep 24, 2003

I think the Giants and Braves (NLCS) will be about -250 over the Marlins...Cubs (NLCS) around -200. I'm basing that not only on the relative strength of the teams but also that the Giants/Braves/Cubs are "public" teams and the oddsmakers will make those bettors pay a premium.
If it's Yankees vs. Marlins in World Series, you don't think the Yanks will be -300?

Hell...now I want to see the Marlins go as far as possible just so I can check back and see how these predictions pan out

Way to edit and insert my name, Patrick!!!

D2bets · Sep 24, 2003

tuley, that's WAY too high IMO and I'm nto a Marlins fan. I'd say Giants and Braves -180 and Cubs -140.
I'll say now:
Braves -135 vs. Cubs
Giants -185 vs. Marlins
Braves vs. Giants -120
Braves -175 vs. Marlins
Cubs vs. Giants -140
Cubs -140 vs. Marlins
My prediction -- upsets:
Marlins over Giants
Cubs over Braves
Cubs over Marlins

PatrickMcIrish · Sep 24, 2003

Edit your name? What do you mean, I didn't touch anything to do with it, LOL. I like your name, at least as far as touts go.

I may be way off base here but Cubs -200? Wow. I'd say laying about 135-140 would be my guess. This Marlins team is balanced with loads of speed up top and their 5 starters - Beckett, Penny, Pavano, Redman and Willis is as good as anyone's top 5. Will be fun to see but if I can get these prices they will have to show me Cubs are -200 over them.

Difference of opinion is what makes sports so fun though, will be a fun series to watch.

Jazz · Sep 24, 2003

D2 - you're (gasp!) picking the Cubs as upsets???

hope you're right! lol

UncleBulgaria · Sep 24, 2003

Is it worth considering betting each opposing team to win it all and then bet that team's next opponent to win it all if Florida loses. It may be worth crunching numbers to check.

Ex., Bet X on the Giants to win WS; then bet Y on their 2nd opponent to win WS and finally, bet Z on the AL winner to win WS.

Maybe a long shot, but worth checking and I gots to sleep myself. -chow

PatrickMcIrish · Sep 24, 2003

>>>Way to edit and insert my name, Patrick!!!<<<

Never mind Tuley I know what you mean now. After I made my post and a post came in between yours and mine I added Tuley at the start of it. Gotcha. And yes you are correct.

Are the prices out yet? I hate to make a fool of myself if they are. If not I'd say Braves wil be a solid -160 over Cubs and Giants about the same over the Marlins. My personal line would be even closer than that.

tuleythetout · Sep 24, 2003

Patrick:
Glad I didn't have to explain it. It just caught my eye because I initially read your post, and then a few minutes later I came back and my name was there.

Patrick/D2bets:
I may very well be way off...only time will tell. If those are too high, my excuse is that I was trying to envision the worst-case scenario for peteep in hedging his bet (and having to lay any lower odds would be a bonus). Another thing I was considering is that the Marlins will not have home-field advantage in any series along the way...that's another thing that could raise their opponents' price.

I wouldn't expect to see any series prices until the Marlins (and Cubs) officially clinch. Doesn't make sense for books to post odds and then have a team lose out and miss the playoffs. But I'd love to hear from any oddsmakers if they have ballpark estimates on any of the divisional series.