Forum: Classic Threads From The Past - Visit here for a great "blast from the past" and view some terrific, informative and interesting "Classic Threads" posted by thousands of savvy sportsbettors over the years here at The Rx.com.....

Thread: If Gambling is 50/50 Why so many losers?

Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
  1. #51  
    in your heart, you know i'm right blue edwards's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    chicago
    Posts
    14,785
    Quote Originally Posted by jwunderdog View Post
    Pointspreads have nothing to do with making a bet a 50/50 prop. ZERO relationship. Lines are set for the most part to distrubute the money somewhat evenly on both sides of a game. They are not designed to give you a 50-50 chance.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #52  
    RX Member Sawyer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Mobile
    Posts
    557
    Let me correct one thing. There isn't anything like "you will go 50-50 on the long haul blah blah" A good handicapper can achieve %58-59 on the long run.

    Why %97.6 gamblers are losing? Juice/Wig is not the main reason. The most important reasons are 6-team parlays, poor money management and lack of discipline. There's almost 1 million article on earth about money management but not everybody have the will and discipline to make it.

    Also, I think juice/vig think is overestimated. I'm using Decimal Odds. So there isn't 100/110 thing for me. I'm betting 10 units flat. If the odds are 1.66 (-150) then I will win +5 units. If the odds are 2.30 (+130), then I win +13 units. I'm betting on soccer as well. No problem for me so far and my record is %58 +490 Units since 2007 (you can check at fcbet.com)

    It's not mathematically possible to achieve above %55 on the long run blah blah


    Come on, there isn't a such thing.

    Discipline + Will + Money Management + Picking Correct Winners = Winning

    Have a good weekend everyone..
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #53  
    Rx .Junior
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    2,376
    I found this article insightful...

    MONEY MANAGEMENT





    If you follow these guidelines you will earn more money then you’ve ever won in sports wagering.



    Only 2 to 3% of people who wager on sports are long term winners. For the most part it’s not because the losers are bad handicappers, or using poor handicapping sources. IT’S BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO CONCEPT OF WHAT A BANKROLL IS, ANY RESPECT FOR IT, OR HOW TO USE IT.



    If you are interested in maximizing your earnings and minimizing your losses using a disciplined, unemotional system, then read on…if not, do everyone a favor, especially yourself, and find yourself a hobby other than sports investing.



    There are three factors to successful sports investing:

    1. Handicapping the games proficiently.

    2. “Shopping lines” to get the best value.

    3. Employing a disciplined money management program.



    You can do above-average with the first two but fail (financially) if you do not manage your money correctly. But you will never do poor, financially if you successfully manage your bankroll.



    One of the most difficult things to do is follow instructions. If you are able to achieve the PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE to follow these rules you will become more financially successful than you have in the past. If you aren’t willing to follow instructions or lack patience, read no further. For those of you who have the discipline, prepare to be more successfully wagering than ever before.



    STEP 1 – DEFINE YOUR BANKROLL. This is a sum which, if you were to lose the entire amount, would not alter your current chosen lifestyle. Use a separate bankroll for each sport (for example, College and Pro Football use separate bankrolls). Don’t be embarrassed if this amount is small. With proper discipline and money management it will grow large!



    STEP 2 – (A) WAGER A CONSTANT PRE-DETERMINED PERCENTAGE OF YOUR BANKROLL

    IN EACH GAME. For example: 3* - 3%, 5* - 5%.



    (B) NEVER WAGER MORE THAN 5 GAMES PER BETTING PERIOD. This insures that never more than 25% of your bankroll is exposed at a given time.



    STEP 3 – CONTINUE TO WAGER A PERCENTAGE OF YOUR ORIGINAL BANKROLL PER PLAY UNTIL YOUR CURRENT BANKROLL EITHER INCREASES 50% OR DECREASES 50%.



    STEP 4 – If your bankroll decreases 50%, reduce your wager 50% until your bankroll returns to its original level. THIS IS IMPORTANT because it keeps you from “chasing” during a cold streak. “Chasing” is the most common mistake of the average player and the surest way to “tap out”. By reducing your wager 50% it guarantees you to stay in action until you have either regained your momentum or lost 30 units (zero bankroll) in which case you definitely need a new handicapper or avocation. The only sure thing to send you to the poor house sooner is playing parlays or teasers. They are a "Bookies Dream". You deserve to lose every cent you bet if you play them. “Square”, “Sucker”, and “Loser” are too kind to describe your mentality if you play parlays or teasers.



    STEP 5 – ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. Let’s assume that good handicapping skills have ballooned your bankroll by 50%. Step to the next window and increase your wager by 50%. (For example, if you had been wagering $100/game, increase your wager to $150/game). Should your winning ways continue and your original bankroll doubles, you would then wager twice your original amount (now $200 in our example). Continue to increase your wager 50% with every 50% increase in your bankroll,



    STEP 6 – TAKING PROFITS AFTER LOSING STREAKS! This thinking is taken directly from the Triple-Stack Method. Anytime you have more than doubled your original bankroll, then lose back 1/3 of your bankroll, take profits and return to your original bankroll. (Example: Your original $1000 bankroll has grown to $2400. But a losing streak reduces it to $1600. The $800 difference from your high point represents a loss of 1/3 of your bankroll. But the $1600 in your bankroll still represents $600 of profit. Take that $600 profit and return to your original bankroll of $1000). You’ve cut short a losing streak and taken profits.



    STEP 7 – TAKING PROFITS AFTER WINNING STREAKS. During the course of the season we all are subject to winning streaks which are mostly the result of a number of close pointspread wins. It’s at these times that we feel like we’ll never have another losing day! WRONG! So, I’ve devised a method to lock in profits from these great times. It’s based on years of tracking winning streaks by length of streak and percentage of streak. The rules are as follows:



    Rule #1 – TAKE PROFITS from a current winning streak any time you have won 80% or more of your

    Most recent 20 plays (16-4 or better). You are “unconscious” if you’ve done this. Take the

    Profit and return to your bankroll level before the 20th game hot streak began.



    Rule #2 – In a similar way, TAKE PROFITS any time you have won 75% or more of your most recent

    30 plays (23-7 or better). You are only “semi-conscious” if yo’ve done this. Again, take the

    profits and return to your bankroll level before the 30 game streak began.



    By having the discipline to follow these directions you’ll find yourself increasing your wealth in winning seasons and saving losses in tough times. WHAT YOU SAVE IS WHAT YOU EARN! For those of you who have read this far, please feel free to give me a call at 817-379-0413 should you have any questions regarding this material
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #54  
    International Playa sherman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    CT
    Posts
    10,183
    wow, this is a great thread.....
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #55  
    RX Senior Rude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,838
    Why so many losers when it's so called " 50/50" ?

    1A - People can't pick winners
    1B - Bad Money Management
    3 - Not getting the best line available

    I dont see it as 50/50 at all. If everygame was a PK and the book had each team at -105/107 you still have to pick the winner over 50% of the time to make money.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #56  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    90
    Quote Originally Posted by sick gambler View Post
    Here is your answer college boy...

    Based on 1,000 dollar bets..

    If a player goes 51-49 he loses 2900
    If a book goes 51-49, he wins 7100

    ___________


    If a player goes 52-48, he loses 800
    If the book goes 52-48, they win 9200

    _______

    If a player goes 53-47, he wins 1,300
    If a book goes 53-47, he wins 11,300

    ________

    If a player goes 56-44, he wins ONLY 7600
    If the book goes 56-44, he wins 17,600

    ____

    If the player goes 59-41, he wins 13,900
    If the book goes 59-41, they win 23,900

    __________________________________
    _______________________________

    So as you see, when the book has an identical record to you, they kick your ass big time by winning way way more than the player, and the ONLY reason for all this, and the only reason why 97.6% of players lose, besides the chasing, the bad money management, and so forth.. is the vigorish.. (the juice) It just adds up and adds up.

    It is just about mathematically impossible to overcome the juice for the average gambler over the very long haul
    Great answer. Probably the best response I ever seen to this kind of question.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #57 Breaking even.. 
    RX Member take2&hittoright's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    362
    I bet 100 basketball games 1 year. My record was 60-40.I broke even.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #58  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    costa rica
    Posts
    1,080
    People lose because they have to pick the winner..the human element along with betting with your heart sinks lots of gamblers..remember your team can win the game but they may not cover!!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #59  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    big cave
    Posts
    486
    The correct answer is because it is not 50-50.

    That is just a myth that people believe and that is the perception of human nature.

    If you want to win 100% of your bets...bet when the odds are a 100% in your favor...if you want to win 80% of your bets...bet only when the odds are 80% in your favor...

    99.99999% of the gamblers make bets over 50% of the time that they have only a 35 to 40% chance of winning or less.

    now i know 99% of you will not comprehend this...but this is the correct answer to this question.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #60  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    big cave
    Posts
    486
    Quote Originally Posted by beammeupscotty View Post
    The correct answer is because it is not 50-50.

    That is just a myth that people believe and that is the perception of human nature.

    If you want to win 100% of your bets...bet when the odds are a 100% in your favor...if you want to win 80% of your bets...bet only when the odds are 80% in your favor...

    99.99999% of the gamblers make bets over 50% of the time that they have only a 35 to 40% chance of winning or less.

    now i know 99% of you will not comprehend this...but this is the correct answer to this question.

    Pretty fucking smart...arn't I...

    here is to all you white man haters.......
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #61  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    big cave
    Posts
    486
    Quote Originally Posted by beammeupscotty View Post
    The correct answer is because it is not 50-50.

    That is just a myth that people believe and that is the perception of human nature.

    If you want to win 100% of your bets...bet when the odds are a 100% in your favor...if you want to win 80% of your bets...bet only when the odds are 80% in your favor...

    99.99999% of the gamblers make bets over 50% of the time that they have only a 35 to 40% chance of winning or less.

    now i know 99% of you will not comprehend this...but this is the correct answer to this question.
    So using this formula plus the second part that goes with it...i can easily pick out winners...

    but i dont gamble...but if some one was to pay me i would consider picking out winners for them...
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #62  
    I hope Jays hotel gets bomb or sumthing
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    .
    Posts
    1,315
    hmmm
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #63  
    RX Member Creeg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Ohio
    Posts
    805
    I wish I had read this thread six years ago. Would have saved a lot of cash and time. Fucking Denver Broncos, piece of shit McDaniels.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #64  
    RX Member Simps1207's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Bloomington
    Posts
    301
    lol at this thread
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •