Nice Prop Value @ Oly, but it will push 85% of the time

lander · Oct 22, 2003

10/22/2003 7:20 PM Player first at bat shootout only will be If player records a base on balls,player is graded as 0 total bs.Both players must start game for action.Total bs are Single=1base,Double=2bs Triple=3bs,HR=4bs.Hits Only.Any scoring changes made after Both Players 1st AB's has no effect on wager.
309 Roger Clemens -115
310 Carl Pavano -115

C Pavano FLA P 32
AB 61
BB 2
Avg .098

Clemens bats 1 a year.

lander · Oct 22, 2003

Obviously, I'm stating the value is on Pavano

SunDevil · Oct 22, 2003

How can there be a calculation of value if we don't know Clemens' batting average?

Jazz · Oct 22, 2003

Because Clemens hasn't batted for how long?? 10 years, 15? Gotta have value there

DavidMatthews · Oct 22, 2003

I don't understand this. ??

David

SunDevil · Oct 22, 2003

Jazz, I'm too lazy to do math this morning, but I'm guessing even if you put the Rocket at .050 BA, the 15 cents juice Spiro's charging would eat up any edge.

Didn't Rog bat versus the Mets or D-backs in those World Series?

Edit: I sit corrected. I got unlazy. Assuming that neither guy has more power than the other (since we're dealing with total bases here) Rog would have to hit .086 to make Pavano not a play.

lander · Oct 22, 2003

Clemens batting average this year is .000 , he's 0-1 with a K. BUT that's irrelevant - there is NOT an sufficient sample size to cap this. My thoughts are exactly those of Jazz - Clemens NEVER hits (and when he does he Ks anyways).

lander · Oct 22, 2003

"Jazz, I'm too lazy to do math this morning, but I'm guessing even if you put the Rocket at .050 BA, the 15 cents juice Spiro's charging would eat up any edge."

Pavano hit .098. You have a -195 true line here if Clemens is equivlant to .050.
Hence, the value.

Take it or leave it.

Guest · Oct 22, 2003

he batted against the mets when the mets pitcher tried to hit him and missed,he swings like my grandmother who is 92,i will take a shot with pavano

Jazz · Oct 22, 2003

SD, not a bad point but if you're giving me both pitchers at the same odds, and one has been getting around 2 at bats per game for 30 games, and the other hasn't batted once, I'll take Pavano. Also, Pavano would certainly know how to bunt a lot better than Clemens, gives you an extra edge.

Jazz · Oct 22, 2003

Odds changed ... I wonder why?

309 Roger Clemens +105
310 Carl Pavano -125

lander · Oct 22, 2003

lakerfan · Oct 22, 2003

Thanks lander

D2bets · Oct 22, 2003

I have this picture in my mind of Clemens hitting a double and lumbering to second base. Did this happen in interleague play last year? It just seems to me that Clemens can't be much worse than a 2/61 hitter.

D2bets · Oct 22, 2003

Hey Jazz, if you're around....you got mail!

lander · Oct 22, 2003

D2,
Pavano was 6/61 .098 BA, with 2 BB

D2bets · Oct 22, 2003

OK, 6/61, not much different. Pavano sucks. I seem to remember Clemens can hit a little, but I could be wrong. 90+% it pushes anyway.

Jazz · Oct 22, 2003

D2, got your email and yes I know it came back! lol

SunDevil · Oct 22, 2003

Clemens lifetime (=20 at-bats) BA=.200 SLG=.300

Pavano lifetime (=220 at-bats) BA=.127 SLG=.168

I don't really see the value in Pavano, but good luck to you guys.

Jazz · Oct 22, 2003

D2: be sure to let me know about anything additional so I can 'fine-tune' the calculations

SD: NOW you post that! lol - well, thx, we'll see

Nice Prop Value @ Oly, but it will push 85% of the time

There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &

There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &

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There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &

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There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &

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