StatFox Analysis

Search

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
32
Tokens
NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL, 10/20/03 9:05 PM
KANSAS CITY (6 - 0) at OAKLAND (2 - 4)
Line Kansas City –3.5 Total 47

StatFox Super Situations favoring OAKLAND to cover the spread
* Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points. (50-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.5%, +30.2 units)
* Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first half of the season. (89-52 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.1%, +31.8 units. Rating = 2*)

The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 27-23 Kansas City win in this game, right on the number.

StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring OAKLAND to cover the spread
OAKLAND is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 27.9, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 0*)
OAKLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play since 1992. The average score was OAKLAND 26.9, OPPONENT 12.9 - (Rating = 0*)

Key Facts
Both of Oakland’s straight up wins came at home this year. Those two games were the Raiders’ best rushing efforts of the season as well, in terms of yards per carry. Kansas City’s rushing defense is among the worst in football, yielding 4.9 ypc. Oakland hasn’t covered a game this season, 0-6 ATS, while KC is 5-1 ATS. The Chiefs’ only ATS loss was the game they did not enjoy the turnover advantage, against Denver.

NHL Monday Night Action
FLORIDA (1-2-2-0, 4 pts.) at NY RANGERS (0-2-2-0, 2 pts.)
Monday, 10/20/2003 7:05 PM
#1 GOALTENDERS: FLORIDA - ROBERTO LUONGO, NY RANGERS - MIKE DUNHAM
Line: NY RANGERS -0.5,-130 Total: Un 5,-110

The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 2.1-1.3 score in favor of New York in this game, still well UNDER the posted total of 5.

StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring the UNDER against the total
FLORIDA is 18-7 UNDER (+10.8 Units) against excellent power play killing teams- give up <=13% of chances over the last 3 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 1.5, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*)
NY RANGERS are 17-7 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in home games against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NYR 2.1, OPP 2.1 (Rating = 1*)

StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring the UNDER against the total
FLORIDA is 25-10 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 1.9, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA is 30-14 UNDER (+15.6 Units) as a road underdog of a half goal or pick'em on the puck line over the last 3 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 2.2, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Key Facts
Florida has not allowed more than two goals in a game this season, while New York has scored just 5 total goals in four games. Florida has gone UNDER in all five games, New York in three of four.


BUFFALO (2-3-0-0, 4 pts.) at VANCOUVER (2-2-1-0, 5 pts.)
Monday, 10/20/2003 10:05 PM
#1 GOALTENDERS: BUFFALO - MARTIN BIRON, VANCOUVER - DAN CLOUTIER
Line: BUFFALO +1.5,-155 Ov 5,-110

Under new ownership, the Sabres made a couple of big moves in the offseason to upgrade their roster, most notably bringing in Centers Daniel Briere and Chris Drury, and defenseman Andy Delmore. Vancouver was impressive in winning its first two games at home by a combined 7-1 margin. But the Canucks are winless in their last three, going 0-2-1 in a three-game road trip.

StatFox Super Situations favoring BUFFALO to cover the puck line
* Play On - Road underdogs or pick on the puck line (BUFFALO) - off a road win, a bad team, winning 30% to 40% of their games on the season in the first half of the season. (46-22 since 1996.) (67.6%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 2.9-2.6 Vancouver win in this game, still enough of a cushion for Buffalo to receive an edge star against the line.

StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring BUFFALO to cover the spread
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+6.2 Units) after shutting out their opponent in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BUFFALO 2.9, OPPONENT 1.4 - (Rating = 0*)
VANCOUVER is 3-11 ATS (-8.5 Units) as a home favorite of 1 goal or more on the puck line since 1996.
The average score was VANCOUVER 3.7, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 0*)

Clearly most of the trends and situations above indicate Buffalo has a great shot in this game. Getting the 1.5 goal line is an added bonus. Buffalo is not one of the normal bottom feeder teams that gets a +1.5 line.


WORLD SERIES GAME THREE
NY YANKEES (109 - 66) at FLORIDA (99 - 76)
Tuesday, 10/21/2003 8:00 PM
MIKE MUSSINA (R) vs. JOSH BECKETT (R)
Line: FLORIDA –110 Total: Un 8,-120

The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 4.1 to 3.4 Florida win in this game.

StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring FLORIDA to win.
* FLORIDA is 21-13 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better since 1997. The average score was FLORIDA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*) Mussina’s is 1.101 for the season.
* FLORIDA is 31-23 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) since 1997. The average score was FLORIDA 4.5, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)

StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring FLORIDA to win against the money line
MUSSINA is 2-7 (-7.7 Units) against the money line in road games in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) The average score was MUSSINA 3.9, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 0*)
FLORIDA is 14-3 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in home games against AL East opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 5.1, OPPONENT 1.9 - (Rating = 1*)
FLORIDA is 7-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in a playoff series which is tied since 1997. The average score was FLORIDA 6.1, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA is 22-7 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.7, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 1*)
BECKETT is 15-4 (+9.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was BECKETT 5.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
BECKETT is 6-1 (+5.0 Units) against the money line in home games when his team is off a loss this season. (Team's Record)The average score was BECKETT 3.7, OPPONENT 1.9 - (Rating = 0*)

All games at FLORIDA since 1997
FLORIDA is 5-4 (+1.7 Units) against NY YANKEES since 1997
8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997. (Over=+6.9 Units)

Good luck!
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,770
Messages
13,438,857
Members
99,338
Latest member
chaicoca816
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com