If I'm Jack McKeon (or OH LET IT RAIN!)

3 of the first four Cubbies hitters get hits, and the fourth only made out because he sacrificed.

Yes, Pavano escaped relatively unscathed allowing only one run, but that's enormous against Prior and he had to fire 21 pitches.

Yes, Pavano's breaking ball looks good but every Cub, including those who lined out, hit a rope.

If I"m Jack McKeon, I'm looking VERY carefully at Pavano's performance in the second inning and I'm ready to yank him at the first sign of trouble...and by trouble I don't just mean a couple hits, but an ability of the Cubby hitters to see and hit the ball hard.

Fragile psyches be damned, this is the freakin' SEASON we're talking about (not to mention a $3K swing in my bank account.

Oh let the rain come down and come down hard!

I agree ... if he allows 4 runs it's probably over. If he lets 3 early it might be worth yanking him.

Another thing:

I don't care how hot Miguel Cabrera is now, batting a 20 year old cleanup with a half season of ML experience under his belt is stupid. His immaturity showed in the first inning, when, with two on and one out, and a rare opportunity against Prior making itself available, he stupidly swung at the first pitch in his first AB of the game. I don't understand why mature, seasoned hitters like Lowell and Conine are batting 6-7 when rookies or Ice Cold Wild Men like Cabrera and Lee are batting 3-4. Marlins' top 3 guys have AMAZING speed (Pierre/Castillo) and contact ability (all 3)...they should be followed immediately by your best hitters...and "best hitter" is not necessarily defined by highest BA, but most intelligent hitter. I'd put Lowell and Conine ahead of Cabrera and Lee in that regard...McK's lineup is an error.

Crucial inning 2 for Pavano now.

3 or 4 runs would virtually end it.

I'm nervous, in the second inning, down by just one run. Prior is just that damn good.

I'm already hoping for rain.

I wonder, would they call a deciding NLCS game after 5 innings if a six-hour downpour hit?

When I play armchair manager and considering whether to yank a pitcher, I don't necessarily look at hits and runs allowed. I think if you wait that long, you've waited too long. By watching a full game, you can see when the pitcher starts to lose a little zip and his pitches seem to flatten out. It's at THAT point, before the damage hits, athat I start considering turning to one of the 8 guys in the pen. I'm always amazed that managers don't seem to take INDICATIONS that a pitcher is beginning to falter as a signal to yank em out, rather than waiting for disaster to actually hit. A manager never takes a pitcher (particularly a starter) just because he starts a late inning of a close game going 3-0 on a batter...he waits until he gives up that walk -- or worse -- before relieving him. That puts an enormous amount of pressure on your bullpen -- guys who probably aren't as good as your starting pitcher to begin with, all things being equal.

Maybe if I were a manager I'd end up overworking my pen, who knows. Maybe I'd end up with a bunch of starting pitchers with deflated egos who never learn how to pich out of a jam. But in the postseason, who the hell cares? Play to win and win now.