Who would you take on this prop bet for tonight's baseball game?

CharlieMaxwell · Oct 6, 2003

Who will strike out the most batters in tonight's Game 5 between the A's and Red Sox?

Martinez, minus 1 1/2 (-$1.30)
Zito, plus 1 1/2 (+$1.00)

ericdixon · Oct 6, 2003

If you held a gun to my head I would take Pedro but its a bet I will pass on!

wilheim · Oct 6, 2003

Last 7 starts by both:

Martinez 43 Ks in 44 innings pitched.
Zito 41 Ks in 46.2 innings.

wil.

KMAN · Oct 6, 2003

Tough call. Pedro had 130 pitches last outing. I think that is the most of the year. So, you don't know how long he will be able to go tonight. However, since Pedro is the man, they may leave him in there longer no matter what.

Zito should give you 7 strong innings with about 6-7 strikeouts.

I think you should take Zito +1.5

GL,
KMAN

benstern · Oct 6, 2003

would anyone take oakland tonight +2.5 -190? Or is it a sucker bet?

sickgambler · Oct 6, 2003

This one is a gimme. Of course your better value is DEFINITELY Zito, and here is why.. Now i am not saying that Zito will have more K's, because Pedro can easily strike out 12 tonight and have a great game. But if you are looking for value, here is why you have to take Zito..

2 reasons..

1- If Oakland wins, most likely they will not need their last at bat, as they are the home team.. So that means that Zito will have pitched 1 inning more than Pedro. So if Zito pitches 9 innings and Pedro only pitches 8 innings, you'd have to give the edge to Zito... One full inning more is huge in baseball for a pitcher, in terms of K's.. Plus, they are both averaging close to 1 strikeout per inning..

2- Zito is getting +1.5 to boot, and laying NO VIG.. it's at even. This alone makes it worth taking Zito..

____

So having perhaps one more inning pitched this game and the 1.5 strikeout lead makes Zito a great bet.. Not including Pedro has been throwing a lot of late..

sickgambler · Oct 6, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by benstern:
would anyone take oakland tonight +2.5 -190? Or is it a sucker bet?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Benjamin,

Please tell me where you saw this line, because I will want to bet my house on this if this is the case. I know my house ain't worth that much because I live in my mother's basement, but I will still bet this if you can tell me where you got that bet..

I am sure this is a misprint. NO WAY can you get Oakland at +2.5 -190.. I think you might be way off on this one Benny.. If I had to make a line on this one at +2.5 for Oakland, I would say about Oak +2.5 -600 approximately, not -190..

But who is carrying this line, because it is obviously a bad line, so don't bet it Benji..

benstern · Oct 6, 2003

Sick,
it went up .5 but it is still available. Its from beteurosport and im telling you guys they offer so many good props and lines its incredible. These guys have overtime lines on nfl, extra innnings and even 4th quarter lines at the end of 3..i pasted it below..take care

Mon 10/6 931 Boston Red Sox
Pedro Martinez -2½ +170 Over 4½ -300
05:05PM 932 Oakland Athletics
Barry Zito +2½ -195 Under 4½ +230

sickgambler · Oct 6, 2003

Thanks Benji, but that is an incredibly bad line.. Aren't you scared they might cancel the bet because of a bad line rule.

Unfortunately, I don't have an acct there, but it's something to think about for the future.

Good luck and enjoy that bad line, cause it's a very very bad line.. thanks again and good luck..

Voodoo · Oct 6, 2003

What should it be then?
-200 sounds about right. Might be
a decent play due to the total being
so low but no way is it a mistake.

benstern · Oct 6, 2003

up to -235....me and my big mouth??

docdekay · Oct 6, 2003

I say -215 for zito +2.5
It is not a bad line. Maybe opionated but certainly not bad.

PatrickMcIrish · Oct 6, 2003

+2.5 -195 is not a bad line! I'd raise hell if a book didn't pay off using the bad line rule.

PatrickMcIrish · Oct 6, 2003

Sick, you said Oakland +2.5 should be -600? Can I get some Boston -2.5? Please! If you ever open up let us know.

With a total like this (CRIS hung 6.5 for a bit) I'd put it about -205/210.

sickgambler · Oct 6, 2003

This line is way off.. How can a line be +150 at -0.5 runs.. and -195 only at +2.5 runs. This is an obvious mistake.. I would bet that if I made this bet, the book would probably cancel it if it won and say BAD LINE.. I wouldn't chance it..

3 runs does NOT cost only $1.45.

Instead of betting Oakland currently at -0.5 +150, you can get them at +2.5 -195?? Yeah right!!! Keep dreaming.. This is a bad line boys!!

Would the book cancel this bet if it won after the game..

YES -230
NO +190

sickgambler · Oct 6, 2003

And there is a reason why this line opened up at Oak +2.5 -190, and is now Oak +2.5 -235.. And I didn't even bet it to move it, cause I assure you if I had an acct there, that line would have now moved to Oak +2.5 -300..

This is a bad line boys..Good luck..

Gagne38 · Oct 6, 2003

You can't compare it that way because with the run line it is different when the road team is a favorite. That is not a bad line at all and the book would not cancel it. That is a rediculous comment to make.

sickgambler · Oct 6, 2003

Greg,

Don't worry, I know the Road Team thing too.. I know the runs are worth less for the road team because of the extra lick they get..

They might not cancel that play, but I know this line is off.. I know an off line when I see one.

Gagne38 · Oct 6, 2003

off by 20-30 cents on a gimmick line like -2 1/2 is not a bad line. Keep patting yourself on the back.

sickgambler · Oct 6, 2003

Who said 20-30 cents kiddo?? Sorry, but you're way off on this one.. This line is a minimum of 50 cents off.. and that' minimum... This line should be +2.5 -250..

Keep patting yourself on the back Gregory.. This was a game to jump on..