I REALIZE PEDRO MARTINEZ IS GREAT BUT...

Isn't minus $1.60 an overlay considering that Pedro pitched 130 pitches last time out, Zito isn't exactly chopped liver, and the Oakland A's are playing the deciding Game 5 at Home??

there is a good thread on this in the baseball forum Ken. Also Zito is pitching on 3 days rest

I think you might be onto something here but this game will be a good game to just watch to me.

good luck everyone

Maybe, but the public loves Pedro, and the A's have been unable to win the last 7 or 8 playoff games in a row in which they had an opportunity to clinch. Very similar situation to the Braves, albeit Zito I think will have more stuff than Hampton last night.

Kenny- Probably right....made the game -145 myself.

Factors in Bostons favor in my opinion are:
1. Momentum
2. Pedro rested perfectly(130 pitches/5day)
3. Zito only 3 days rest
4. Oakland lost last 5 series decisive games.
5. Foulke pitched yesterday
6. Revenge on Zito
7. Yankee-Bosox match-up pending

Any bookmaker worth his weight in gold should be able to put themselves in a great situation on this game IMO. Possibly a no-lose one at that.

To answer you question Kenny.....think there is some value in Oakland, yes.

Why, because no matter how much "Value" you have you still have to pick the winner. During the season you might see 4 or 5 nice value plays on any given day. This is when the value will do some good, by saving you money on your losses and making you more on your wins. Tonight is like a match race between two very good horses. We know what they can do, the question is what will happen tonight. Lets look at Pedro first, he pitched well, but not great, in game 1. He went 7innings, 6 hits, 3 runs, 4 walks, and 3 Ks. He also threw 130 pitches. A key to how Pedro does tonight may be the umpire, if he is squeezed his pitch count will escalate rapidly, if he gets an expanded strike zone he may be able to go 8 innings. This year on the road Pedro went 6 and 2 in 17 starts, with an ERA of 1.57 and Opp Batting ave of 194, allowing 5 homers, striking out 125 and walking 28 in 109 innings. His one start vs. the A's was in Boston. Lifetime at Network Associates Coliseum he is 4 and 1 with an ERA of 1.45 in 6 regular season starts. Bottom line is he is a very good bet to be effective for 6 innings for sure and 50/50 to go a very solid 7. Barry Zito was very effective in game two getting the win pitching 7 innings giving up 5 hits 1 walk and striking out 9 while throwing 113 pitches. This year at home he was 7 and 5 with an ERA of 3.03 and allowing opp. batting ave. of 2.38 allowing 10 homers, walking 34 and striking out 53 in 98 innings. Lifetime Zito is 3 and 2 vs Boston with an ERA of 3.27 in 6 regular season starts. The question of rest comes into play here, Zito has never pitched on short rest, so it is anyone's quess if the short gap between starts will hurt. He is more apt than Martinez to get hit but still a favorite to pitch well. Lets say he goes 7 solid, as does Pedro, now we get into the dreaded bullpens. The main man in this series for Boston has been Scott Williamson, who won both games in Boston. The question is after going 2 innings yesterday and throwing only 18 pitches doing it, can he continue to be effective tonight. Mike Timlin has also pitched well and his velocity was clocked the best all season on Sat. when he pitched 3 hitless innings, with 3 Ks on 33 pitches. Timlin should be able to go tonight at least 2 innings if needed. Lefty Alan Embree might see a lefty hitter or two. The rest of the cast including Kim are spectators unless the Sox get blown out. The A's closer Keith Foulke got knocked around for 3 hits and 2 runs in a single inning throwing 24 pitches yesterday, he will have to pitch well if the A's are going to win a close game. Lefty Ricardo Rincon was effective but gave up a homer yesterday to lefty Todd Walker, a big no-no for him, the A's will need to deal with Boston lefties David Ortiz, and Walker in the late innings. Submarine specialist Chad Bradford should be called on and has been tough. Intersting facts: As a team the Sox hit LHP at a .285 ave. The A's hit RHP at a .257 ave.

Prognosis is the game (total is another discussion)is a crap shoot. Two excellent pitchers. The better, barely, is a good sized favorite. All things considered you have to like the Red Sox a little, but do you want to lay the juice? Me? I think I will be betting football tonight.

wil.

I tend to favor hitters when they have already faced a pitcher in the series. Pedro is nasty but Oakland really didn't back off of him in his first outing.

Zito is very impressive as well and at +140-50 I am on him.

I think the over also has some interest.

Pedro has an off day maybe he gives up 2 runs, Zito has a bad day and the Red Sox line up can light him up. IMO.

I want the RedSox to win but I am betting the A's.

Pitchers working on 3 days rest are 5 and 14 since 1988 in the playoffs.


wil.

Tough game to call, I would go with Ziot at +150 if I had to bet it.

The colts +4.5 looks much nicer.

The nitty-gritty of tonight's matchup:

Pedro's ERA is around 1.7 in the post-season in 5 starts - 30+ innings and 6 earned runs

Pedro has never gone more than 7 innings after throwing 120+ pitches

Joyce is behind home plate tonight - he has 20 OVERS and 7 UNDERS this year. He'll put the squeeze on Pedro and on Zito's curve - bullpen is even more important. Advatage is unknown because EVERYONE becomes available tonight.

Boston hasn't been able to hit the Oakland starters - most of the Sox runs have come off Oakland relief pitching.

First 4 innings or so will be played with the batter's box in shadows because of the 5 pm start in Oakland. Helps the pitchers.

Pedro left for Oakland with the team, while Zito left on Saturday. Usually, pitchers are sent a day before the team, but that wasn't the case with Pedro yesterday. Might hurt Pedro here.

Boston has a losing record when a lefty starts - hard to believe when you think of how Manny and Nomar are righties.

Since we don't know how Zito does with 3 days rest, I looked up how he does with an extra (i.e. 5) day of rest.

48 innings pitched, 12 earned runs = 2.26 ERA while he has 3.30 ERA this year overall. If he does a run better with an extra days' rest, does he do worse with one less day of rest? -the "rest" consisting of 2 cross country flights at the least, and possibly a bar room problem with his buddy.

Strange thing about Umpire Jim Joyce last year (2002) he was behind the plate for 10 overs and 24 unders and 1 push, this year, he is 19 overs 8 unders and 6 pushes. Over the last 3 years combined 46 - 48 - 10. These stats may vary a bit according to the source. These came from Let It Ride Sports .Com. Has he been affected by the strike zone monitoring machines? Not sure. 63.24% of all pitches have been called strikes by Joyce this year. Another key stat not mentioned is the A's are 42 and 20 at home vs. right handed starters. Which may be the best in the American League.

wil.

I think if you like Pedro it will be back down to 50 by game time!

don't forget the series price was anywhere between -135 to -150 for the Sox. Now you lay only -160 for a 1 game with Pedro on the mound. I think this line is low. I really thought pedro may be close to -190.

Not playing it but you have to like Pedro tonight. Especially after not gettting the W in game one. Hall of Fame pitcher in his prime? Losing is not an option boys. Boston has the sticks too, no surprise if the flood gates open tonight. Seriously. Let's call this one Boston 12-5.

Take the Red Sox and lay the touchdown.

Just as a side note, Mike Francessa from WFAN already considers Boston a dead pan lock tonight and he's the biggest jinx in the world. Can't tell that know it all anything.

I'm on the A's, what the hell.

the umpires will be kissing redsox ass tonight. baseball is a disgusting sport.

You guys can feed me all the stats in the world. At +155 (which can be found easily) this is a ridiculous overlay. I'm not saying zito is necessarily the right side, but I sure as hell know that pedro isnt at this price. No fu(king way.

The only bad news to the Oakland backers here is that I agree with you 100%. I am cold as ice in the playoffs so far.

oakland is 0-7 in closing out post season series's