wager question......m/l vs spread

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was wondering which way to go this weekend .......like WASH (curr. -2.5, -124 at pinnacle) they also have them -154 on the m/l...........considering the pointsread comes into plat approx. 16% of the time, is laying the points the obvious /logical way to go ?
 

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Jimmy. IMHO

since a win by 3 will give you the $$ I would take the -124 -2.5 . the -154 ML seems high

perhaps im wrong but thats the way i'd play it
 

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that is the way i'm leaning..........but this being the NFL...........well, you can see my concern
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The breakeven for -154 is 60.63% compared to the breakeven for -124 at about 55.35%

Getting the tie, 1 and 2 are not worth the extra juice.
 

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Have to be honest with, I could probably improve my bottom line by betting more moneylines but have had fairly good success in the NFL over the years so dont want to rock the boat. For me, I find that I have a much more clear head about me when I just concern myself with the spread ONLY.
This brings up a point I always like to mention. If somethig works for you, dont change it. Different strokes for different folks. This is basically directed at people that have been successful for at least 10 years.
 

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This one is a no brainer at all. NOT EVEN CLOSE

Of course you take the -2.5 -124.. By a country mile, too. Here is why.

If you play it at pick -154, you will win very close to 55% in this game. At 55% and laying -154, you'd end up losing 14.3% on every dollar..

At -2.5 -124, you'd end up only losing about 4.5% ONLY on every dollar. It's 3.5 times better to bet the -2.5, seeing the game landing on 1 and 2 is not common and just not worth the extra 31 cents..
 

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thanx all..............respect ur opinions,(ESP. WHEN THEY AGREE W/ MY LEAN !!! LOL !!) and dont hv a firm grasp on the math yet......can see now why spread is obvious way to go based on the math .............thanks for enlightening a rook.............u guys ROCK !!!!!
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less than 3, I almost always take the moneyline on dogs, but I always will lay less than three on favorites. -2.5 and pick are pretty damn close to the same thing. Yes, it can land on 1 or 2, but that is way too rare of an occurence to lay 30 cents. I'd take -2.5

By the way, this looks like the biggest trap line of the week to me. I may need to take New england tomorrow. EVERYONE is on the skins and the line hasn't budged...
 

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i didnt invent it ....they post em, i just try to pick em ............glad i got it at 2 1/2 .........
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skins did all they could to lose though....if not for the brainless offensive calls by charlie weiss inside two minutes they WOULD prbbly have lost ........this team is (wash) needs a gutcheck and PHI is not the place to do it ..........goin w/ philly -4 1/2 this week
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