Sportsbooks losing to the NFL

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Three weeks into the NFL season, bettors are 3-0 against the books, and the trend has been troubling for sports book directors.

A majority of the betting public traditionally prefers to play favorites, and a surprisingly high number of favorites have covered the point spreads. After 46 games, favorites are 27-14-2 against the closing line, with three games going off as a pick.

The low point for the books came Sunday, when favorites won all seven morning games.

"It was an exhausting day for a lot of us," Imperial Palace sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "We were looking at Black Sunday. We had tremendous liability after the favorites went 7-0. Going into the late games, we hadn't had that situation in a long time.

"I was going to stand out on the street with a sign that said, `Will work for underdogs to cover.' "

The underdogs bounced back to win four of five afternoon games. Kornegay said Arizona's upset of Green Bay and Cleveland's upset of San Francisco were key winners for the sports books.

The books also recovered some money when Miami, a 3-point favorite, beat Buffalo 17-7 in the Sunday night game.

"All of the books had one-sided action on the Bills. The only reason the line didn't move was because it was sitting on 3. Any other number, and it would've moved," Kornegay said.

"We haven't had a winning Sunday yet. The NFL has not been kind to us. I would say for 95 to 98 percent of the books, that's true."

A year ago, it was a different story as the underdogs got off to a fast start and finished the year with a winning record.

• INDECENT PROP -- The Chicago Bears and quarterback Kordell Stewart are struggling, to put it mildly, and Stewart is the subject of an Imperial Palace proposition bet in Monday's game against the Packers.

What will Stewart throw first, a touchdown or an interception? An interception is the minus-120 favorite.

During the Bears' 0-2 start, Stewart has thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions. He has completed just 49 percent of his passes.
 

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I anticipate a big week for the books if not this week, the following week. Be careful punters.
 

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amen strut............."regression to the mean" INEVITABLE............dogs/under the way to go perhaps over the next week oir two ?
 

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Your "regression to the mean" holds great merit in the NFL actually.
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Again, good luck Jimmy.
 

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Be a little careful with that last year I got my ass handed to me in the NFL ,looking for regression back to the mean. It never happened, as Dogs won last year., Start to finish
 

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would you say that the majority of these books take bets "naked"? I always assumed they sold some of their action to keep everything close to even action.
 

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The VAST majority of offshores copy and clone lines from a few industry leaders.

To get a better edge, they will shade their lines to take advantage of the publics desire to bet favorites and overs, and book from there ( getting someone to lay SF - 5 instead of -4 for example ).

Over time, the recreational player will get the worst of it from just Post up type shops.

In the interum if the favorites keep covering, many of these shops may get financially hurt.

Players should only bet with only the best offshores and not with gimmick joints.
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
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It will all balance out in the end. If a book is in financial trouble 3/4 weeks into the season, they didn't need to be taking the wagers anyhow.
 

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What that article has left out. College has been HUGE for the BOOK.......So even 3 weeks into the football season, the BOOKS are WINNING.
 

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what would you guess is bet on pro vs college football %age wise?
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
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Good question kengam.

Is there a trend to show the comparisons of dollars played on Saturday college compared to Sunday nfl?

One may guess more games = more stakes, but...
 

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Volume wise, Sat and Sun are real close. Slightly more for the NFL.......
 

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Sr Muny,

Do you think chasing from Saturday losses lends a little edge or do the winners from saturday tend to lay more on sunday? Or maybe both contribute equally.
 

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Sr Muny has made a good point. I believe there are a lot of books where they make more money from College than Pro (i.e. College has much higher hold % for the book than Pro, enough even to offset size of Pro wagers).
Also, no one is taking into account baseball. Did the books win enough with Baseball + College to cover Pro Football?
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by The General:
Sr Muny,

Do you think chasing from Saturday losses lends a little edge or do the winners from saturday tend to lay more on sunday? Or maybe both contribute equally.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

A little of both. But in more cases than not, The average Joe who wins early, gives it back late. And in NFL, there is always that BIG FAV that drops and WRECKS all the teasers, and thats where the PUBLIC has gotten beat. Like last Sunday, PUBLIC killed the BOOKS on the 1 oclock games, but by the time the 4 oclock games where over, they had given it all back and then some with the 9ers and Pack losing outright.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Java:
Did the books win enough with Baseball + College to cover Pro Football?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

YES, PLENTY.............
 

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Thanks Sr Muny,

Overlooked most often is the teasers and parlays that are crushed when the favs lose outright. Good point by java as well.
 

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