Help me cut down my learning curve...Is there any value in ...????

BillDozer · Sep 18, 2003

OK... I know everything has odds of occuring and a corresponding payout to make it worth the risk or not. I know a 3 team parlay doesnt offer enough payout to be worth its potential occurance.

What I am trying to figure out is the occurance of a successful side and at how many cents I can give up to still be profitable.

More specificly, key numbers 3 and 7 on nfl and ncaa games. I see alot of books differ by 1/2 point on 3s and 7s but to buy both sides you usually have to go over 110 on one side.

An example is tonight team A is -6.5 @ -104 and team B is +7 at -116. Is 10 cents on avg too expensive? Lets say the player is a dime player and it did hold value how much would you place on each side to even out the risk.

hmmmmm

BillDozer · Sep 18, 2003

jazz,
I can see you typing your reply right now.

DarrylParsons · Sep 19, 2003

A half-point on or off the 3 in NFL is worth about 20 cents. In NCAA it's worth about 15c (higher scoring games)

On or off the 7 in NFL it's about 10 cents, in NCAA about 8 cents.

In your example it would need to be worth 20 cents to make a profitable scalp, so do not bet both sides or you will be playing into the hands of the bookie. Just decide which side you like and be happy you are paying less juice than if you had only one out.

drunkguy · Sep 19, 2003

you cannot try to middle by buying points..you end up paying way too much on each side and will be a loser in the long run.

BillDozer · Sep 19, 2003

I wasnt buying points. I got a total of 20 Cents cost to get the wagers. I'm actually dealing with a large bonus on the side of the high cost but I wanted to know hypothetically. (so if i lose that side I'll be moving part of a bonus required to be rolled otherwise.)

So your saying generally I can spend 20 cents trotal in NFL for 3 to 3.5 and 7 to 7.5 for the occurrance of the side?

Voodoo · Sep 19, 2003

Spend 20 for the 3 and only 10 for the 7.
Your example from last night was a loser
costing 20.

drunkguy · Sep 19, 2003

I'm at work, so I don't have numbers in front of me. From what I remember, that play is profitable on 3 but not on 7. This is for NFL only. You're not getting a "middle", just a side...in other words, you can never win both, but you can get a push on one and a win on the other.

I'll check my numbers tonight when i get home and try to update.

CountryDickMontana · Sep 19, 2003

"you cannot try to middle by buying points..you end up paying way too much on each side and will be a loser in the long run."

One exception that comes to mind.... Tiger and his crew out of Philly absolutely CRUSHED (Are crushing?) books, on and off the 3 in the NFL, to the point where they helped put one very well known BM out of business. They beat a couple of HUGE shops that everyone adores, so badly one particular Sunday (Three games landed on 3, to the tune of a million per game or so) that said shops changed their bookmaking philosophies, and started tacking on juice to the number 3, so that people couldn't buy.

CountryDickMontana · Sep 19, 2003

Drunk guy, you beat me to it.

BillDozer · Sep 19, 2003

thanks drunk!

Also do you have the occurance of side attempts in baseball totals?? Same exact shit.. I'm seeing alot of 9 OUs and then a hlf point off that at 9.5 or something. It usually costs around 20 cents to attempt that side. But maybe 25% is at 15 cents.

Theres gotta be a well known stat on if this is a waste of money or not.

Jazz · Sep 19, 2003

I have to agree with Voodoo, but even more so for the NFL. Never ever pay 20 points for a 7 in either game, and to be honest, I wouldn't pay 20 points for a 3 in colleges, either - I don't have the stats but I seriously doubt that a game hovering around the 3 in college ball hits the 3 the same percentage of time it does in the NFL.

Horseshoe · Sep 19, 2003

Country Dick is familiar with TigerMike & Philly crew..I smell a wiseguy!

BillDozer · Sep 19, 2003

So 3 at -110 and 3.5 at -107 would be a good play? We all agree on that?

(I'm playing a heavy bonus book on one end so I would do the 7s or even 10s then covering my initial deposit amount on the other end. So i got 20% to play with, buyt after that goes through I'm lost on foots)

Thanks for the opinions. Its better than me playing 7s at 15 cents for 40 games and realizing "hey this blows"

Jazz · Sep 19, 2003

NFL, yes

BillDozer · Sep 19, 2003

how about totals in bases?

drunkguy · Sep 19, 2003

Bill-

I'm not a serious baseball handicapper, so all I know is that 9 is the most common total number in AL, 7 in NL. I doubt taking 20c to move the number is worth it. But if you have multiple outs (particularly dime shops) you may be able to find yourself the numbers on a lucky day. If you don't have to pay extra juice, it's definitely worth the side try on those numbers.

May want to ask this question in the bases forum, lot of sharp dudes down there.

Jazz-
I honestly doubt the 7 in college ball is worth sh!t. 3 also definitely not worth 20 IMO. Pro numbers are much sharper than colleges, giving you that slight edge on key numbers.

Jazz · Sep 19, 2003

drunkguy: agree pro vs. college, but 7 can be worth shit in college under 2 conditions: you pay about 10 cents for a side, 15 cents for a 6.5/7.5 middle on a national 'big game', where the numbers tend to be sharper. Case in point: OU vs. Bama, won by 7 on a late spread of 7 - nope, never found anything worth hitting, so I didn't cash on that one. Especially games with really good defenses.

I prefer to pay even less if possible, of course.

BillDozer · Sep 19, 2003

thats gotta be better value i would think.. I dont need one team to go in any direction and every score is worth 1.

Im guessin a hlf point is worth 15 cents and a full run diff worth 20c?

BillDozer · Sep 19, 2003

When I say 20 cents we are all talking 20 cents total right?? Im not saying I wanna take 20c somewhere to get the number off a hlf point of which i already took at a different price.

SO what is the most likely place to find our middle attempts at the profitable cost? NFL, bases, hockey? I got some books Id like to move my money out of and in a 30 day commitment so Id like to put some effort somewhere.

Jazz · Sep 19, 2003

Bill, I'll be honest with you - it's not as simple as it may have been once before. It is a lot harder to find these and takes a considerable amount of time.

People who do this are understandably reluctant not only to post specific info on forums that sportsbook can read, but also even to privately communicate what they may know. Why? Well, for one outstanding reason, lines often move once someone hits one that is a good value. The more people who know about it, the less chance a player has of hitting that line themselves because there are a larger pool of players who might hit it first before one can hit it. In this kind of environment, a person has to be nuts to give out that kind of information when it can only cost him money. Secondly, one hell of a lot of man-hours can be spent finding out this info, and a player can have spent countless hours of personal effort to do so - so just letting others have this info is not realistic. Finally, posting that info will inevitably help the books themselves.

Just being honest - if you want to find them, you're going to need to spend a lot of time hunting. No offense! GL

p.s. That's why you're not getting replies to your request. Also, yes, we're talking 20 cents total.