SQUARE TALK - VOL II (Buying off points in the NFL).......

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SportsOptions/Line up with the pros
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You'd be hard pressed to find a bigger NFL square than me but I try and take notes so I can go over things until they make sense. Some like to know only what it is they need to know (which is fine) but I like to know how and why behind the numbers. I copied this a year or two ago from Mr Bend Over and wanted to throw this out here for us squares. Now if you can figure out how to use this informaton you will be ahead of the game.
icon_wink.gif



-1.5 -1 0.97%
-2 -1.5 1.23%
-2.5 -2 2.42%
-3 -2.5 5.71%
-3.5 -3 3.50%
-4 -3.5 0.73%
-4.5 -4 0.74%
-5 -4.5 0.89%
-5.5 -5 0.76%
-6 -5.5 0.88%
-6.5 -6 1.11%
-7 -6.5 2.40%
-7.5 -7 0.89%
-8 -7.5 1.79%
-8.5 -8 1.19%
-9 -8.5 0.78%
-9.5 -9 0.00%
-10 -9.5 2.81%


The chart above shows the % you are increasing your edge by if you get off the first consensus number and onto the new one. This is if you are betting the favorite in this example. First thing you have to know is the break even points, if you lay -110 than you need to hit 52.38% to break even. If you lay -120 (like when you buy off a #) the break even is 54.55%. So any number in the column that is higher than 2.17 (54.55% - 52.38%) will show a long term edge in buying the half point. That is all you need to know.

So armed with that information let's look at the chart. If for some reason you bought off the 9 to 8- you have paid an extra 10 cents to gain a .78% edge, not even 1%. If a players normal win % is 55% then he now has improved his win % to 55.78%, no thanks. Not even close to the break even of 2.17% edge you need to make the play. However if you can buy off the 3 to 2.5 it increases your win 5.71% so you know there is nice value in doing so at -120. Look around, you don't see Aces Gold here anymore do you?
icon_wink.gif


Basically buying off the 3 is okay at -130, surely the right move if you can get -125 or less, -120 is like stealing if you can find it. Mostly the point today is instead of wasting time figuring out when to take a half point off a number I recommend increasing your outs and shopping lines hard. You can probably find an extra 1/2 point easily if you are just playing out of 1 out right now by just adding a few more places to get a bet down. At least on most numbers you can. Even last night I had a choice of playing Redskins -3 or taking them -2.5 at -120. Look at the chart above and it is clear what the right call was even if you didn't know the rght answer. If there is one rule us squares need to know it is understanding the importance of having more outs to shop. If you are playing out of one local or book you are giving money away every year I don't care how good you think you are at capping games.

Anyway good luck and I hope this helps. Just throwing it out to get other comments. Sometimes people won't share a thing but if you post something incorrect they can't wait to get in here and correct you, LOL. I will do the same thing for hoops when it cranks up as well if anyone is interested.
 

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Off the subject a tad, but a VERY IMPORTANT strategy I employ. Since the return of the 2 point conversion, it is never advisable to bet a team at +6.5 -110 or +9.5 -110. IF YOU CANT FIND THE +7 or the +10 BY SHOPPING......PAY THE 1O CENTS AND BUY THE EXTRA HALF POINT! THIS IS A SMALL ADVANTAGE VERY FEW BETTORS KNOW. CONSIDER IT A GIFT.
 

ODU GURU
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GREAT POST PATRICK...
applaudit.gif


WE WANT MORE THREADS LIKE THIS ONE GUYS....

THE SHRINK
 

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Bet the real line and forget buying because it is for suckers unless they shop your playing at is -102 juice or even.
 

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Bob- In most cases, true. However, some situations the mathematics calls for it to be employed as in the examples given by Patrick and myself in the above examples.

Good luck Bob, always nice to see you here.
 

SportsOptions/Line up with the pros
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Fish, exactly right. As I noted I showed if you were playing the favorites, if you were laying the points. Be easy to present one from the dog side of it as well. For instance going from +3 to +3.5 is just as big (actually a little better play) than going from -3 to -2.5 points. Think that adds about 6% to your edge. Obvioulsy a huge edge if you could get it at -120 somewhere. Anyway thanks for the props, now the sharpies are here it's time to take off for greener pastures.
icon_wink.gif


Bob/JJ - I agree for the most part, that's why I said increasing your outs and shopping for prices is the best advice for us squares. However someone asked what numbers should you buy off at -120 for so I answered it. There are times when it is mathmatically the right move.
 

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My thinking is this.Why bet on a game if you think it is going to be that close.
Thanks fish glad to be here.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by bob sparks:
My thinking is this.Why bet on a game if you think it is going to be that close.
Thanks fish glad to be here.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Bob- To be successful in this business, find as many edges as you can.......no matter how slight.
 

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Buying the half is not an edge.If it was the book would not offer it.Now here is a real edge and its free,won't cost ya nothing extra with your book
Playing the dog will give you TWO ways to win.
Play the fav. you will have only one way to win.
 

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Bob- Agree, love those dogs!! Would sure like you to understand the math behind buying the half point in the above examples. Good luck.
 

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One question:
If u wager 100 dollars on your edge and it loses-120

Wager a 100 on my edge and lose-110

And if we both win our edges +100

So tell me which is the edge for the player?
To risk more is that really an edge.
 

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BOB SPARKS.............quote "you might be a square if you buy 1/2 points"

excuse me sir........i am just wondering if you plan on giving away any other trade secrets??????


Mods ban the guy immediately... he makes way too much sense.....
icon_wink.gif


just giving you a hard time...........gl
 

SportsOptions/Line up with the pros
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I couldn't figure out if Bob was messing around or not so I didn't go near his questions.
icon_wink.gif
 

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Patrick McIrish said:
You'd be hard pressed to find a bigger NFL square than me but I try and take notes so I can go over things until they make sense. Some like to know only what it is they need to know (which is fine) but I like to know how and why behind the numbers. I copied this a year or two ago from Mr Bend Over and wanted to throw this out here for us squares. Now if you can figure out how to use this informaton you will be ahead of the game.
icon_wink.gif



-1.5 -1 0.97%
-2 -1.5 1.23%
-2.5 -2 2.42%
-3 -2.5 5.71%
-3.5 -3 3.50%
-4 -3.5 0.73%
-4.5 -4 0.74%
-5 -4.5 0.89%
-5.5 -5 0.76%
-6 -5.5 0.88%
-6.5 -6 1.11%
-7 -6.5 2.40%
-7.5 -7 0.89%
-8 -7.5 1.79%
-8.5 -8 1.19%
-9 -8.5 0.78%
-9.5 -9 0.00%
-10 -9.5 2.81%


The chart above shows the % you are increasing your edge by if you get off the first consensus number and onto the new one. This is if you are betting the favorite in this example. First thing you have to know is the break even points, if you lay -110 than you need to hit 52.38% to break even. If you lay -120 (like when you buy off a #) the break even is 54.55%. So any number in the column that is higher than 2.17 (54.55% - 52.38%) will show a long term edge in buying the half point. That is all you need to know.

So armed with that information let's look at the chart. If for some reason you bought off the 9 to 8- you have paid an extra 10 cents to gain a .78% edge, not even 1%. If a players normal win % is 55% then he now has improved his win % to 55.78%, no thanks. Not even close to the break even of 2.17% edge you need to make the play. However if you can buy off the 3 to 2.5 it increases your win 5.71% so you know there is nice value in doing so at -120. Look around, you don't see Aces Gold here anymore do you?
icon_wink.gif


Basically buying off the 3 is okay at -130, surely the right move if you can get -125 or less, -120 is like stealing if you can find it. Mostly the point today is instead of wasting time figuring out when to take a half point off a number I recommend increasing your outs and shopping lines hard. You can probably find an extra 1/2 point easily if you are just playing out of 1 out right now by just adding a few more places to get a bet down. At least on most numbers you can. Even last night I had a choice of playing Redskins -3 or taking them -2.5 at -120. Look at the chart above and it is clear what the right call was even if you didn't know the rght answer. If there is one rule us squares need to know it is understanding the importance of having more outs to shop. If you are playing out of one local or book you are giving money away every year I don't care how good you think you are at capping games.



Anyway good luck and I hope this helps. Just throwing it out to get other comments. Sometimes people won't share a thing but if you post something incorrect they can't wait to get in here and correct you, LOL. I will do the same thing for hoops when it cranks up as well if anyone is interested.




We really do need more stuff like this. What is everyones opinion on this today? You have a ton more options to work with today.
 

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Patrick McIrish said:
You'd be hard pressed to find a bigger NFL square than me but I try and take notes so I can go over things until they make sense. Some like to know only what it is they need to know (which is fine) but I like to know how and why behind the numbers. I copied this a year or two ago from Mr Bend Over and wanted to throw this out here for us squares. Now if you can figure out how to use this informaton you will be ahead of the game.
icon_wink.gif



-1.5 -1 0.97%
-2 -1.5 1.23%
-2.5 -2 2.42%
-3 -2.5 5.71%
-3.5 -3 3.50%
-4 -3.5 0.73%
-4.5 -4 0.74%
-5 -4.5 0.89%
-5.5 -5 0.76%
-6 -5.5 0.88%
-6.5 -6 1.11%
-7 -6.5 2.40%
-7.5 -7 0.89%
-8 -7.5 1.79%
-8.5 -8 1.19%
-9 -8.5 0.78%
-9.5 -9 0.00%
-10 -9.5 2.81%


The chart above shows the % you are increasing your edge by if you get off the first consensus number and onto the new one. This is if you are betting the favorite in this example. First thing you have to know is the break even points, if you lay -110 than you need to hit 52.38% to break even. If you lay -120 (like when you buy off a #) the break even is 54.55%. So any number in the column that is higher than 2.17 (54.55% - 52.38%) will show a long term edge in buying the half point. That is all you need to know.

So armed with that information let's look at the chart. If for some reason you bought off the 9 to 8- you have paid an extra 10 cents to gain a .78% edge, not even 1%. If a players normal win % is 55% then he now has improved his win % to 55.78%, no thanks. Not even close to the break even of 2.17% edge you need to make the play. However if you can buy off the 3 to 2.5 it increases your win 5.71% so you know there is nice value in doing so at -120. Look around, you don't see Aces Gold here anymore do you?
icon_wink.gif


Basically buying off the 3 is okay at -130, surely the right move if you can get -125 or less, -120 is like stealing if you can find it. Mostly the point today is instead of wasting time figuring out when to take a half point off a number I recommend increasing your outs and shopping lines hard. You can probably find an extra 1/2 point easily if you are just playing out of 1 out right now by just adding a few more places to get a bet down. At least on most numbers you can. Even last night I had a choice of playing Redskins -3 or taking them -2.5 at -120. Look at the chart above and it is clear what the right call was even if you didn't know the rght answer. If there is one rule us squares need to know it is understanding the importance of having more outs to shop. If you are playing out of one local or book you are giving money away every year I don't care how good you think you are at capping games.

Anyway good luck and I hope this helps. Just throwing it out to get other comments. Sometimes people won't share a thing but if you post something incorrect they can't wait to get in here and correct you, LOL. I will do the same thing for hoops when it cranks up as well if anyone is interested.



We really do need more stuff like this. What is everyones opinion on this topic today? You have more options than ever.
 

W-R-X Champion
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Not mentioned yet but nice

-8 -7.5 1.79%

With the 2 pt conversion everyone tries to cut it to 8
 

MrJ

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bob sparks said:
Buying the half is not an edge.If it was the book would not offer it.Now here is a real edge and its free,won't cost ya nothing extra with your book
Playing the dog will give you TWO ways to win.
Play the fav. you will have only one way to win.

You're wrong. It's shown to be mathematically profitable to pay 20 cents (or less) to buy on/off the 3 and 10 cents (or less) for on/off 7,14 and 17. Something else might bother to explain it.
 

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