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Thread: The Absolute Worst Mistakes in Low Limit Hold'em

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  1. #26  
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    My bad McIrish..I thought you were disagreeing with lurker where he was presenting the odds of making the flush for the ENTIRE hand.
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  2. #27  
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    No biggie Swami, yes the odds are approximately 2-1 against you making a flush if you flop 4 of them. I thought that was already established. I was just breaking out the turn and the river if anyone didn't understand it.

    Sorry.
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  3. #28  
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    My figure of 38.7% came from 19.148% 9/47 and
    9/46 19.56%

    Unless heads up in a small unraised pot its rare to not have enough pot odds to continue most of the time.
    The post ignored implied odds which are very important.
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  4. #29  
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    McIrish is one of the top 300 players in the world by the way.
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  5. #30  
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    Lurker - those numbers are exactly right, I just rounded up. Good point on implied odds, we could do another whole thread on pot odds, implied odds etc....

    Fishhead - surely you are joking? LOL. I'm not in the top 300 players on this site, let alone the world. You like to bust my balls don't you.

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  6. #31  
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    pat irish, swami.

    read my post further up.

    when u combine the events u r 2.58 to 1

    1/3.58 = 28% according to my calculations.

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> If you flop 4 to the flush you are a 1.85 to 1 dog to hit your flush on either of the last 2 cards.
    Thats 38.7% chance you will complete. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    a 1.85 to 1 dog as a % is 35.1

    i'm interested to see how you got the probability of 1.85 to 1

    there's only so much you can learn from reading poker strategy, but still, why educate people?

    htrc, people from 1 day might pull a move on you that you taught them, now that's a funny thought.
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  7. #32  
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    lurker.. don't worry
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  8. #33  
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    I would like to clear up a mistake I have seen about 38 percent.

    If you flop 4 to a flush or straight, the odds of getting it on the turn or river are:

    35.0% or 1.85 to 1

    If you flop 4 to a straight the odds of getting it on the turn or river are:

    31.5% or 2.17 to 1


    I would like to note that adding 19% and 19% as some of you have done to get 38%. You can't just add it like that. The correct equation is 35.0 percent or 1.85 to 1.
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  9. #34  
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    If you ask why you guys are wrong at 38%,

    you must take 1 - the probability of not hitting your hand which would be:

    1- (38/47)*(37/46) = 35%

    or another way would be to take the probability of hitting it on the turn PLUS the probability of not hitting in on the turn AND hitting it on the river

    9/47 + (38/47)*(9/46) = 35%


    There are also other ways to do it but all basic probability. If you guys are interested in poker calculations it's important you learn probability theory.
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  10. #35  
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    Tekari

    knows his shit about poker guys. I have seen it and witnessed it first hand..This guy is good. In vegas he won the tourney with ease
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  11. #36  
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    Nice post Tekari. Like McIrish I generally round up/down slightly using 2 to 1 odds when I flop four to a flush or str8 and 4 to 1 when looking at once specific card (turn or river).
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  12. #37  
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    Those who chase straights and flushes make their way home on Grayhound busses.

    One thing that nobody considered. You can come up with probability all day long, but on a hand by hand basis you'll never know how many cards of your suit have been mucked or in others hands.

    Flushes are played based upon betting action (is it worth the call) and from the gut.

    Also never raise or bet until you complete your st8/flush. You just decide if it's worth the call. Sitting back also takes the focus off your play.
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  13. #38  
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    Lou-

    What are your thoughts on pot odds?
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  14. #39  
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    I want 4-1 or more on my call and 4 cards *in* in order to chase. If it's close to 4-1 and the cards are going my way, or it's their money at the sitting, I'll chase it.

    When it's your money, sit back and wait for *the nuts*, take your shots on their money.

    Remember, if you find the finish line in this game...YOU LOSE!
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  15. #40  
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    Lou - you've sold me, let's get up a real game next year in Vegas.

    Dante - right you are, Tekari is a sharp little son of a gun. Swami and some others too.....
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  16. #41  
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    With a 4 flop chance of hitting a flush on turn or river is 33%
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  17. #42  
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    Another thing you guys aren't figuring in on flush draws is the odds to pull running trips or 2 pair as well.

    Also something not mentioned but when counting probability you must add cards that help you but subtract them if they would beat you.

    If you need a J for a straight but the Jh would also complete someone else's flush you are now 3/47 not 4/47

    [This message was edited by areeff on September 01, 2003 at 07:02 PM.]
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  18. #43  
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    [QUOTE]Originally posted by Lou Diamond:
    Those who chase straights and flushes make their way home on Grayhound busses.
    QUOTE]

    I really never understood this saying because most times you have the correct pot odds to call with flush draws and open ended straights. In fact, in a loose game you can often draw to a gutshot if the pot is laying the right odds.

    As far "never raise or bet till you complete your str8/flush" that is totally wrong.

    The semi-bluff and raising for value are two very important weapons in middle limit games. There are definetly situation where if you have overcards and 4 to a flush against a low number of opponents a bet is correct if there is a small chance you might win the bet there. You can have as many as 15 outs since your overcards could win you the pot as well if they pair.

    Also if you have the nut flush draw and there are 4-5 callers in front of you and you are on the button a raise if often correct cause you will make your flush 35% of the time by the river and you are getting 5:1.

    Also you can raise with a flush/straight to get a free card.
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  19. #44  
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    Pat I've been shut up....well almost. It's tough to argue with the RX tourney winner, (who also was sharp enough to stay out of Seaurchin's bluff, where I wasn't.) I believe Tekari to be a very sharp player. I don't think he luckily won it.

    In my attempt at a defense, I forgot this thread was about limit.

    "I really never understood this sayin"

    Tekari,
    I would assume the saying comes from the fact that if everything is on the line and you're chasing St8/Flushes you're 'probably' going home a loser.


    As you know I did chase a straight vs. Fat Frank in the tourney on my 6th place exit.

    Whether Frank was bluffing or not (sure you had the queen Frank) , I should have bailed, instead I chased my way out.

    I mostly play no limit, or tournys. I have only played the Hold'm games for a few months. I have played less than 20 multi-tables (200-800 players) and have made the final table 2 times, came in the money 2 other times.

    But I was there watching all the ESPN interviews during WSOP. It was like listening to a greatest hits cd of poker champs.

    I try to live by this rule in general, especially when the chips aren't there. But as I said if I'm up, the cards are going my way and I'm getting 4-1, I'll chase.

    And considering my exit in the RX tourney, I don't always follow my own rules. That's why gambling takes *guts*.



    "Also if you have the nut flush draw and there are 4-5 callers in front of you and you are on the button a raise if often correct cause you will make your flush 35% of the time by the river and you are getting 5:1."

    I'm sure you're correct in limit. Once again different opinion in no-limit or tourneys (high level limit tourneys inc.). You could start a battle that you shouldn't play until you've completed your hand.
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  20. #45  
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    I'm sure I'll get roasted for this, but I have to disagree with most of these maxims. All of them have exceptions, and some are flat out misguided.

    The advice is generally okay, but it'd incorrect in all instances:

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>1. Protecting your blinds. The next time some genius tells you to always protect your blinds, be happy, for you are now playing with a sucker — a fish, if you will. Blinds are part of the game to get the hand started and if you protect your blinds with weak hands, you are a loser and will continue to be one. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    He's wrong. You have to defend the blinds against overly aggressive players. That doesn't mean calling the extra bet with 10-4 offsuit. It means calling with a lot of marginal hands, because you're getting at least 7-2 odds (your bet, the half bet small-blind, and the double bet by the raiser). Of course doing so means you also have to play well from the flop thereafter, but there aren't a lot of hands that are 7-2 underdogs.

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>2. Playing a good starting hand that goes sour after the flop. I know that good starting hands are few and far between. However, it's the nature of the beast and you need to drop hands that go sour fast. I've seen it a million times over. You start with AK and the flop is J 9 4. You have nothing. Let me repeat that. You have absolutely nothing. Zilch. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    Not true. Suppose I'm on the button in a $10-20 game, a player limps in, I raise with AK suited, and the big blind calls. There's $65 in the pot. The flop is 10 8 3 with one of my suit. The small blind bets, the next player folds. There's $75 in the pot. I'm darned well going to at least call $10. I probably going to raise about half the time, especially if I think the small blind is trying to take the pot then and there or is betting on a draw, or if I think it will get him to check the turn. There are 47 cards I don't know about, and 6 of them hit my Ace or King. Another 8 (Q's and J's) make me a gut-straight draw, and there are 8 cards that aren't Q's or J's that give me a flush draw. A lot of it depends on how much I know about the bettor. To flat say you have to fold if you miss a flop is folly.


    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>3. Playing suited cards. This is perhaps the most common of all bad plays. In every low limit game, you will run into players that refuse to lay down suited cards. Playing them will diminish your bankroll fast. Fact is, the chances of flopping two of your suit on the flop is roughly 8-1. On top of that you have to complete your draw, which you will, 1 in 3.4 times. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    Another general statement. It depends on the suited cards, your position relative to the button, the number of players in the pot, and how much action the game is giving.

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>4. Playing weak hands in early position. Play very tight in early position and loose in late position. If you never consider position, then I want to play with you. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    I agree with being more selective in early position, but it depends on the nature of the game. If the game is soft, in other words if there are a lot of callers and very few raises before the flop, I might limp in with hands like 5-6 suited or a pair of 3's. In a tougher game, I might lay down K-Q under the gun. Playing loose in any position is a ticket to the poorhouse. If he said "looser" in late position, I'd agree, but some hands need to be folded even on the button, depending on the circumstances.

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>5. Takin' it out on the dealers. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    No argument there, assuming the dealers are honest (which almost all are in public cardrooms).

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>6. Revenge. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    If revenge means chasing and playing bad, I agree with him. Continuing to play a solid game is the best revenge you can take on a bad player.

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>7. Bluffing a weak player. Simply stated, if you try and bluff a weak player, it makes you a weak player. Weak players don't lay down hands; they call you with anything and everything. Some hands you just won't make anything and that's all there is to it. The only players that can be bluffed are solid players, since they respect the cards and the game. If a weak player gets bluffed once, he will never get bluffed again, ever, for fear he may be laying down the winning hand. This player has to be able to sleep tonight with nothing on his mind. If you try and bluff weak players, then I want you in my game. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    If he'd worded it "bluffing a calling station", I'd agree. No point to that. I know a lot of weak players who are timid sorts and who will always fold on the end (sometimes sooner) if they don't hit a good piece of the flop. I'm going to play very aggressively at them. A solid player is more likely to find a tell or make the correct play and end up raising your bluff or at least calling it. The only times I try to bluff a solid player is if the pot is so big that any chance of him folding the best hand makes it worthwhile or if there are other players to act after him that I know will fold if they don't have much.

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>8. Calling with second pair after the flop. You hold J-Q and the flop is K-J-2. It is never correct to check and call in this position. It is only correct to check and fold, bet, raise, or fold. End of story, If you are second on the flop, chances are you will be second when the hand is over. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    Baloney. Why does the top pair have to be out? What if the bettor is an aggressive type that always tries to steal the pot on the flop? If I'm headup and first to act with a player that I know will bluff on every street with nothing but will not fold to a raise, I'm going to check and call him and let him bluff his money off on every street.

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>9. Check raising. Although I will get many arguments on this one, my position remains the same. Unless you are 100 per cent sure that someone will bet, you should always bet when you flop the best hand. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    Excuse me? So I should always bet the best hand. And likewise, I should always check when I don't have something. That way, everybody always knows when I have something and they'll fold. If I check, they know I don't have anything, and they can bet me out of the pot with nothing.

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>10. Raising with flush draws. Another beauty and a common mistake by weak opponents. Why on Earth would you want to raise with a flush draw and chase out players on belly shots, open end straight draws, 1 pair, etc. It just doesn't make sense. You want everyone in this pot in case you hit your card<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    Not always true. If the pot is five or six way and I'm in last position, I'm going to raise because I'm getting value on my money. I'll hit my flush about 35% of the time (with two cards to come), and I'm getting 5-1 on my money. If I hit it on the turn, I'm in good position. If not, I can call the next bet for the river. Also, if the person who bet is the type to bet on nothing or very little and a raise might drive the rest of the players out and get me head-up, I'm going to make that raise and get it down to the aggressive player and me. I might have extra ways to hit my hand that I wouldn't have if I let everybody in, I might be getting the best hand out and end up with a better hand than the bettor, and I at least have a draw to beat him.

    The person who wrote this article has a label. It's called "weak-tight". I love to have players like that in my game, because they're easy to read. They alway bet good hands and always check bad ones. I can fold whenever they bet and I don't have something to compete with, and I can steal their money everytime they check.
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  21. #46  
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    Ummmm Sam,

    SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

    You making it much tougher for me to make my living!
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  22. #47  
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    Man I love a good poker thread and the personalities it brings out. Playing poker is like betting the NFL or eating a woman out, every guy with hair on his chest thinks he's the greatest at it but the majority don't know what the hell they are doing. LOL.

    Lou - don't tell Frank I told you but that rascal didn't have a queen.
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  23. #48  
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  24. #49  
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    4 years old, and yet this is STILL great advice.
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  25. #50  
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    The advice is great...In low limit hold em most people call to the river and try to hit their pair, straight, etc...pretty much for 4 bucks, 8 etc I'll pay to watch monkeys play with each others shit, so why not just call to the river. But you wont win most of the time. However at such low limits people catch all the time. How do you avoid this?
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