NOVER'S NEWS AND NOTES 09/01/03 - Stephen Nover
Football is in the air, but this week's notes column leads off with college basketball.
Unlike football, there will be several new board teams in college basketball. However, these will be ‘added’ teams, so not all sports books will have them on their betting board.
Those who like to bet these added games must get acquainted with Elon, Jacksonville State and Samford, while saying goodbye to VMI. Elon now is part of the Southern Conference.
"It's the first time I can bet on a team where I don't know their nickname," one professional bettor said about Elon.
Elon is making the move from the Big South, the conference where VMI is now headed. The Big South is a non-board conference. Jacksonville State and Samford will each be competing in the Ohio Valley this season after being in the Atlantic Sun Conference.
"The door will be open a little bit," a professional gambler said about having a potential betting edge on these new added board teams. "The problem is limits will be very low.
"If you do get off to a good start, they're going to move the numbers real quick. They want to keep someone from betting the same game twice."
Now back to football, where NFL Films has come out with a DVD titled "Fantasy Preview 2003." The NFL is now embracing fantasy football after estimating 10 million people compete each week.
The NFL is once again demonstrating its rampant hypocrisy. Do they honestly believe fantasy football isn't played for money or prizes?
This is apparently so, judging by the following quote from NFL Senior Director of News Media Evan Kramer.
"Years back, there was a misconception of what fantasy football really was," Kramer said. "It had gambling connotations, so for a long time that put us off a bit. But once we took a good look at what the game actually involved, and the kind of information that was required to be successful, we realized it wasn't a gambling activity..."
Huh? Yeah, I guess fantasy players are motivated to learn all they can about Troy Hambrick and who wins the Carolina kicking job because they sincerely care about these individuals. And bettors pour over trends, statistics and injuries just so they can impress a few of their friends at the bar. Right Evan, money has nothing to do with people's interest in the NFL.
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I received some interesting information regarding my recent column detailing an argument Las Vegas radio personality Larry Grossman and gaming columnist Buzz Daly had during Grossman's "You Can Bet On It" show. Grossman said it's inexcusable and wrong for a tout to lie or exaggerate about his record, while Daly said it's part of life and people shouldn't be stupid enough to fall for such claims.
The example given on the show was the late Jay Martin's claim of going 88-18 (83 percent). The chances of achieving this, based on 50-50 probability, are 1.19 times out of one trillion. That number is according to Bob Eichenlaub, who says he has an extensive background in mathematics, engineering and computer science.
"Put another way, this means that if 280 million American men, women and children randomly handicapped 106 football games every year, it would take 3,000 years before even ONE could boast an 88-18 record," Eichenlaub said.
Keep this in mind whenever you hear a salesman try to sell you sports picks.
"This is where most ‘scamdicappers’ use their deception most effectively," Eichenlaub said. "They will have five to 10 categories of services, such as NCAA football, NCAA totals, NFL, NFL totals, millionaire picks, solid gold picks, conference games of the year, economy picks, Five-Star picks, late service picks, complimentary picks, etc.
"Any random set of such categories will tend (in any 10 games) to have hot streaks of 70 percent or better quite frequently. About 17 percent of such picks will be 70 percent or better.
"This is why the only true measure of performance is total bet-weighted units versus total units wagered over a complete season. Multi-season comparisons then give a flavor for how consistent and reliable over time the service is."
***********************
I noticed that, in Sunday's Rx.com posting forum, BEANTOWN JIM is once again skating on thin ice with his controversial posts.
Compared to jjgold, though, BEANTOWN JIM is Thomas Jefferson and Railbird is Voltaire.
Football is in the air, but this week's notes column leads off with college basketball.
Unlike football, there will be several new board teams in college basketball. However, these will be ‘added’ teams, so not all sports books will have them on their betting board.
Those who like to bet these added games must get acquainted with Elon, Jacksonville State and Samford, while saying goodbye to VMI. Elon now is part of the Southern Conference.
"It's the first time I can bet on a team where I don't know their nickname," one professional bettor said about Elon.
Elon is making the move from the Big South, the conference where VMI is now headed. The Big South is a non-board conference. Jacksonville State and Samford will each be competing in the Ohio Valley this season after being in the Atlantic Sun Conference.
"The door will be open a little bit," a professional gambler said about having a potential betting edge on these new added board teams. "The problem is limits will be very low.
"If you do get off to a good start, they're going to move the numbers real quick. They want to keep someone from betting the same game twice."
Now back to football, where NFL Films has come out with a DVD titled "Fantasy Preview 2003." The NFL is now embracing fantasy football after estimating 10 million people compete each week.
The NFL is once again demonstrating its rampant hypocrisy. Do they honestly believe fantasy football isn't played for money or prizes?
This is apparently so, judging by the following quote from NFL Senior Director of News Media Evan Kramer.
"Years back, there was a misconception of what fantasy football really was," Kramer said. "It had gambling connotations, so for a long time that put us off a bit. But once we took a good look at what the game actually involved, and the kind of information that was required to be successful, we realized it wasn't a gambling activity..."
Huh? Yeah, I guess fantasy players are motivated to learn all they can about Troy Hambrick and who wins the Carolina kicking job because they sincerely care about these individuals. And bettors pour over trends, statistics and injuries just so they can impress a few of their friends at the bar. Right Evan, money has nothing to do with people's interest in the NFL.
********************
I received some interesting information regarding my recent column detailing an argument Las Vegas radio personality Larry Grossman and gaming columnist Buzz Daly had during Grossman's "You Can Bet On It" show. Grossman said it's inexcusable and wrong for a tout to lie or exaggerate about his record, while Daly said it's part of life and people shouldn't be stupid enough to fall for such claims.
The example given on the show was the late Jay Martin's claim of going 88-18 (83 percent). The chances of achieving this, based on 50-50 probability, are 1.19 times out of one trillion. That number is according to Bob Eichenlaub, who says he has an extensive background in mathematics, engineering and computer science.
"Put another way, this means that if 280 million American men, women and children randomly handicapped 106 football games every year, it would take 3,000 years before even ONE could boast an 88-18 record," Eichenlaub said.
Keep this in mind whenever you hear a salesman try to sell you sports picks.
"This is where most ‘scamdicappers’ use their deception most effectively," Eichenlaub said. "They will have five to 10 categories of services, such as NCAA football, NCAA totals, NFL, NFL totals, millionaire picks, solid gold picks, conference games of the year, economy picks, Five-Star picks, late service picks, complimentary picks, etc.
"Any random set of such categories will tend (in any 10 games) to have hot streaks of 70 percent or better quite frequently. About 17 percent of such picks will be 70 percent or better.
"This is why the only true measure of performance is total bet-weighted units versus total units wagered over a complete season. Multi-season comparisons then give a flavor for how consistent and reliable over time the service is."
***********************
I noticed that, in Sunday's Rx.com posting forum, BEANTOWN JIM is once again skating on thin ice with his controversial posts.
Compared to jjgold, though, BEANTOWN JIM is Thomas Jefferson and Railbird is Voltaire.
