NFL Player Prop opinions

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MIXING FANTASY AND PLAYER PROPS 08/28/03 - Stephen Nover

The NFL estimates more than 10 million people are involved in some kind of fantasy football league.

However, bookmakers haven't been able to tap into this market too much because there really isn't a correlation between gamblers and fantasy football contestants.

But that could change if more places start posting various player propositions. As an active fantasy football participant, these 'props' intrigue me as much as anything on the betting menu.

By handicapping players for your fantasy draft, you can't help form opinions about these 'props.'

At Sportbetting.com, for instance, you can wager on who will have the most passing, rushing and receiving yards. I've already bet on Clinton Portis to have the most rushing yards. It was at another site where I received 9/1 odds.

But at Sportbetting.com I found Tommy Maddux at 25/1 for most passing yards and Torry Holt at 18/1 for most receiving yards.

Maddox missed four games last season. If you would have projected his 2002 stats across a full 16-game season, he would have finished with the fourth most passing yards.

He could do even better this season because the Steelers no longer will be a balanced team. Bill Cowher has made it obvious the Steelers are going to pass at will with his decision to start scatback Amos Zereoue ahead of plow horse Jerome Bettis. Cowher also is going with newcomer Jay Riemersma ahead of Mark Bruener at tight end. Bruener is an excellent blocker, but Riemersma is the superior pass catcher.

The Steelers could have the league’s best set of starting wide receivers in Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward. But can the immobile Maddox stay healthy behind an offensive line that no longer has left tackle Wayne Gandy, the Steelers' best pass blocker?

Holt had a quiet 2002 season, yet he still came within 42 yards of finishing with the second most receiving yards in the NFL. Holt never was able to fully get in sync with backup quarterback Marc Bulger.

But with Kurt Warner looking like his old self, Holt should be a serious contender for most receiving yards. Certainly, his odds shouldn't be as high as 18/1. Holt, Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens are the only wide receivers who have had more than 1,300 receiving yards during each of the past three seasons.

BoDog Sports has odds on the player who will capture MVP honors. The key here is to get a live 'dog at double-digit odds. I would take a shot on Brett Favre at 14/1, Steve McNair at 30/1 and Edgerrin James at 40/1.

You almost have to go with either a quarterback or running back on this 'prop' because it has been 15 years since a player from another position won MVP honors.

Unlike other quarterbacks, you don't have to sweat out an injury by selecting Favre. He was within four votes of being MVP last year, and he has a better situation at wide receiver this season.

Terry Glenn, who never got in sync with Favre, is gone. An improved Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker should upgrade the position, along with newly acquired pass-catching tight end Wesley Walls. Of course, Favre still has reliable Donald Driver, first-string tight end Bubba Franks and dangerous Ahman Green out of the backfield.

The Packers' two starting offensive tackles, Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton, are healthy after being injured last season. In addition, Green Bay has the league’s fifth-easiest schedule. The teams in Green Bay's division - Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago - all have serious secondary weaknesses. That is especially true of the Vikings and Lions.

The Titans are becoming more of a pass-oriented team, where the burden is on McNair rather than aging tailback Eddie George. McNair placed third in MVP balloting last year despite battling numerous injuries. He's healthy now and has looked great in preseason.

James, a two-time rushing champion, has high odds because he is off a bad season. James, though, was coming off serious knee surgery and also was slowed by hip and rib injuries. Now, two years off the knee surgery, James should be back to his old self. Early reports have been encouraging.

Either the Colts or Titans are going to win the AFC South. If either team reaches the Super Bowl in the wide open AFC - or goes deep into the playoffs - chances are it will be because of major contributions from McNair and James.

A final thought about player 'props.' I hope bookmakers will take down any 'prop' that involves Mike Vick, Chad Pennington, Willis McGahee, Jimmy Smith, Michael Bennett and Chad Hutchinson.

Yes, many fantasy football players are ‘squares’ when it comes to betting. But they're not morons. Please don't insult us.
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
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Thanks Nover
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One fantasy team for me this year, but the info that you get from fantasy carries over into the capping. A great tool.
 

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